基于分形和R/S分析的渭河干流径流变化特征研究
|
摘要
变化环境下日益突出的水资源供需矛盾对流域水资源管理提出更高要求。通过分析流域径流量变化特征,揭示流域水资源演变趋势,为流域水资源合理开发利用提供依据。以渭河流域为研究区域,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、分形理论和R/S等方法分析渭河干流6个典型水文站1956—2015年径流时空变化特征、持续性及两者之间的关系。结果表明:渭河干流各站点的月径流量均呈减少趋势,从上游到下游,月径流量减少趋势的显著性越来越弱,呈显著性减少趋势的月份越来越少。渭河干流各站点的月径流深Hurst指数均大于0. 5,即未来与历史变化情况呈正相关性,各站点未来月径流量将呈持续减少趋势。汛期分维数大于非汛期,上游月径流分维数小于下游,中游月径流分维数最大。分维数越大,径流过程变化越复杂,河流调节能力越差,表明渭河干流在汛期和中游径流量调节能力相对较差。Hurst指数与分形维数之间有着显著负相关性,即径流量越复杂,分维数越大,Hurst指数越小。研究结果可为流域水资源科学调度提供依据,有利于促进流域内水资源严格管理。
The increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water resources under the changing environment has put forward higher requirements for the development and utilization of water resources in the river basin. By analyzing the characteristics of the runoff change in the basin,the evolution trend of the water resources in the watershed is revealed,which provides a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of the water resources in the drainage basin. Taking the Weihe River basin( WRB) as the research area,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics,continuity and their relationships of the runoff measured at the six typical hydrological stations located along the mainstream of the WRB from 1956 to 2015 are analyzed by the methods of the fractal theory,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and R/S analysis. The research results show that the monthly runoff measured by all hydrological stations in the Weihe River mainstream has decreasing trends. The significant decreasing trends of the monthly runoff become weaker,and the number of month with significant decreasing trends becomes less and less from the upstream to the downstream of the WRB. The Hurst index of the monthly runoff depth for all stations in the mainstream of the WRB is greater than 0. 5. The results show that the future trends are positively correlated with those of the past,indicating that the monthly runoff will continue to decrease in the future. The fractal dimensions of the runoff during the flood season are larger than those of the nonflood season. The monthly runoff fractal dimensions of the upstream are smaller than those of the downstream,and the monthly runoff fractal dimensions in the middle reaches are the largest. The larger runoff fractal dimension represents the more complex runoff process and the worse regulation ability of the river. It is found that the adjustment ability of the runoff during the flood season in the middle reaches of the WRB mainstream is relatively poor. The Hurst index is significantly negatively correlated to the fractal dimension of the monthly runoff. That is,the more complex the runoff changes,the larger the fractal dimension and the smaller the Hurst index. The results can provide a basis for scientific operation of the water resources in the watershed and facilitate the strict management of the water resources in the basin.
The increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water resources under the changing environment has put forward higher requirements for the development and utilization of water resources in the river basin. By analyzing the characteristics of the runoff change in the basin,the evolution trend of the water resources in the watershed is revealed,which provides a scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of the water resources in the drainage basin. Taking the Weihe River basin( WRB) as the research area,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics,continuity and their relationships of the runoff measured at the six typical hydrological stations located along the mainstream of the WRB from 1956 to 2015 are analyzed by the methods of the fractal theory,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and R/S analysis. The research results show that the monthly runoff measured by all hydrological stations in the Weihe River mainstream has decreasing trends. The significant decreasing trends of the monthly runoff become weaker,and the number of month with significant decreasing trends becomes less and less from the upstream to the downstream of the WRB. The Hurst index of the monthly runoff depth for all stations in the mainstream of the WRB is greater than 0. 5. The results show that the future trends are positively correlated with those of the past,indicating that the monthly runoff will continue to decrease in the future. The fractal dimensions of the runoff during the flood season are larger than those of the nonflood season. The monthly runoff fractal dimensions of the upstream are smaller than those of the downstream,and the monthly runoff fractal dimensions in the middle reaches are the largest. The larger runoff fractal dimension represents the more complex runoff process and the worse regulation ability of the river. It is found that the adjustment ability of the runoff during the flood season in the middle reaches of the WRB mainstream is relatively poor. The Hurst index is significantly negatively correlated to the fractal dimension of the monthly runoff. That is,the more complex the runoff changes,the larger the fractal dimension and the smaller the Hurst index. The results can provide a basis for scientific operation of the water resources in the watershed and facilitate the strict management of the water resources in the basin.
引文
[1]HUANG S Z,LIU D F,HUANG Q,et al.Contributions of climate variability and human activities to the variation of runoff in the Wei River Basin,China[J].International Association of Scientific Hydrology Bulletin,2016,61(6):1026-1039.
[2]孙悦,李栋梁.1975-2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):413-423.(SUN Yue,LI Dongliang.Features and response to climate-driven factors of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Weihe River in1975-2011[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(2):413-423.(in Chinese))
[3]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.渭河中下游年径流量变化趋势及突变分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(3):61-69.(LIBin,XIE Jiancang,HU Yanhua,et al.Analysis of variation and abruption of annual runoff in middle and lower Weihe[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2016(3):61-69.(in Chinese))
[4]NI Z H,WU L C,WANG M H,et al.The fractal dimension of river length based on the observed data[J].Journal of Applied Mathematics,2013:1-9.
[5]ZHAO X H,CHEN X,HUANG Q.Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River Basin[J].Water Resources,2017,44(1):31-42.
[6]FACBENEDA J.Fractal structure of the kashubian hydrographic system[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,448:48-54.
[7]李国栋,张俊华,王乃昂,等.基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测---以兰州市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2):299-307.(LI Guodong,ZHANG Junhua,WANG Naiang,et al.Calculation of climate change trend based on the analysis of averages and aperiodic cyclic analysis:A case study of Lanzhou City[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(2):299-307.(in Chinese))
[8]赵辉,郭索彦,解明曙,等.不同尺度流域日径流分形特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(1):159-164.(ZHAO Hui,GUO Suoyan,XIE Mingshu,et al.Fractal characteristics of daily discharge in different scales watersheds[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(1):159-164.(in Chinese))
[9]张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐,等.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.(ZHANG Handan,WEI Wei,XUE Sha,et al.Analysis on the variation of temperature and precipitation in Dingxi based on R/S and Mann-Kendall test[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(6):183-189.(in Chinese))
[10]潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):41-50.(PAN Guoying,QIN Yongtai,MA Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015,26(3):41-45.(in Chinese))
[11]冯小庆,严宝文.渭河流域径流过程的分形特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(5):103-107.(FENG Xiaoqing,YAN Baowen.Fractal characteristics of runoff process in Weihe watershed[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2011,30(5):103-107.(in Chinese))
[12]马宗伟,许有鹏,钟善锦.水系分形特征对流域径流特性的影响-以赣江中上游流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):163-169.(MA Zongwei,XU Youpeng,ZHONG Shanjin.Influence of river network fractal characteristic of runoff-case study in the basin of upper and middle courses of Gan River[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,18(2):163-169.(in Chinese))
[13]李建林,昝明军,李宝玲.基于R/S分析的黑河出山年径流量灰色预测[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):127-131.(LI Jianlin,ZAN Mingjun,LI Baoling.Grey prediction of out-mountainous annual runoff of Heihe River based on R/S analysis[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(5):127-131.(in Chinese))
[14]SONG X,ZHANG J,AGHAKOUCHAK A,et al.Rapid urbanization and changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing metropolitan area[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2014,119(19):11250-11271.
[15]张利茹,贺永会,唐跃平,等.海河流域径流变化趋势及其归因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(4):59-66.(ZHANG Liru,HE Yonghui,TANG Yueping,et al.Analysis of runoff change trend and its attribution in Haihe River basin[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2017(4):59-66.(in Chinese))
[2]孙悦,李栋梁.1975-2011年渭河上游径流演变规律及对气候驱动因子的响应[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(2):413-423.(SUN Yue,LI Dongliang.Features and response to climate-driven factors of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Weihe River in1975-2011[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(2):413-423.(in Chinese))
[3]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.渭河中下游年径流量变化趋势及突变分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2016(3):61-69.(LIBin,XIE Jiancang,HU Yanhua,et al.Analysis of variation and abruption of annual runoff in middle and lower Weihe[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2016(3):61-69.(in Chinese))
[4]NI Z H,WU L C,WANG M H,et al.The fractal dimension of river length based on the observed data[J].Journal of Applied Mathematics,2013:1-9.
[5]ZHAO X H,CHEN X,HUANG Q.Trend and long-range correlation characteristics analysis of runoff in upper Fenhe River Basin[J].Water Resources,2017,44(1):31-42.
[6]FACBENEDA J.Fractal structure of the kashubian hydrographic system[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,448:48-54.
[7]李国栋,张俊华,王乃昂,等.基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测---以兰州市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2):299-307.(LI Guodong,ZHANG Junhua,WANG Naiang,et al.Calculation of climate change trend based on the analysis of averages and aperiodic cyclic analysis:A case study of Lanzhou City[J].Arid Zone Research,2013,30(2):299-307.(in Chinese))
[8]赵辉,郭索彦,解明曙,等.不同尺度流域日径流分形特征[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(1):159-164.(ZHAO Hui,GUO Suoyan,XIE Mingshu,et al.Fractal characteristics of daily discharge in different scales watersheds[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,22(1):159-164.(in Chinese))
[9]张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐,等.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.(ZHANG Handan,WEI Wei,XUE Sha,et al.Analysis on the variation of temperature and precipitation in Dingxi based on R/S and Mann-Kendall test[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(6):183-189.(in Chinese))
[10]潘国营,秦永泰,马亚芬,等.基于R/S和Morlet小波分析的丹河径流变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(3):41-50.(PAN Guoying,QIN Yongtai,MA Yafen,et al.Research on variation characteristics of runoff in Danhe river basin based on R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2015,26(3):41-45.(in Chinese))
[11]冯小庆,严宝文.渭河流域径流过程的分形特征研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(5):103-107.(FENG Xiaoqing,YAN Baowen.Fractal characteristics of runoff process in Weihe watershed[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2011,30(5):103-107.(in Chinese))
[12]马宗伟,许有鹏,钟善锦.水系分形特征对流域径流特性的影响-以赣江中上游流域为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(2):163-169.(MA Zongwei,XU Youpeng,ZHONG Shanjin.Influence of river network fractal characteristic of runoff-case study in the basin of upper and middle courses of Gan River[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2009,18(2):163-169.(in Chinese))
[13]李建林,昝明军,李宝玲.基于R/S分析的黑河出山年径流量灰色预测[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):127-131.(LI Jianlin,ZAN Mingjun,LI Baoling.Grey prediction of out-mountainous annual runoff of Heihe River based on R/S analysis[J].Areal Research and Development,2014,33(5):127-131.(in Chinese))
[14]SONG X,ZHANG J,AGHAKOUCHAK A,et al.Rapid urbanization and changes in spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing metropolitan area[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2014,119(19):11250-11271.
[15]张利茹,贺永会,唐跃平,等.海河流域径流变化趋势及其归因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2017(4):59-66.(ZHANG Liru,HE Yonghui,TANG Yueping,et al.Analysis of runoff change trend and its attribution in Haihe River basin[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2017(4):59-66.(in Chinese))