三江源区大气可降水量时空特征及其与降水关系
|
摘要
利用1979—2016年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF) ERA-Interim (1°×1°)再分析资料中的经、纬向水汽通量和大气可降水量(precipitation water vapor,PWV)数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析法、累积距平、IDW等方法,分析三江源地区PWV与水汽通量的时空分布特征、降水转化率(precipitati-on conversion efficiency,PCE)变化规律。结果表明:过去的38 a,经、纬向多年平均水汽通量分别为50. 2、196. 7 kg·m-1·s~(-1),纬向水汽通量气候倾向率比经向大。南边界为纬向主要水汽输入边界,东边界为经向主要水汽输出边界,纬向水汽输送大于经向输送。多年平均PWV为1998. 3 mm,近38 aPWV呈现微弱增加趋势,1979—1997年,PWV呈下降趋势,1998年后PWV呈增加趋势,同期降水也在增加,说明该时段三江源地区气候转湿。PWV与水汽通量的年际变化趋势和转折年相一致。三江源区多年平均PCE为24. 57%,1989年PCE最高,达32. 76%,各季节平均PCE空间分布与年平均PCE分布一致,均表现出南部、东南部高,西部、东北部低的变化特征,各季节PCE大小差异明显,春季多年平均PCE为15. 92%,夏季25. 67%,秋季21. 01%,冬季仅7. 03%。
The spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitable water vapor and water-vapor flux as well as precipitation conversion efficiency in the Three Rivers Source region were discussed through correlation analysis,trend analysis,accumulative anomaly and inverse distance weight based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data( 1° × 1°) produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts( ECMWF) from 1979 to 2016. The results show that the mean meridional and zonal water vapor flux in the past 38 years were 50. 2 and 196. 7 kg·m-1·s~(-1),respectively. The climate tendency rate of zonal water-vapor flux was much higher than that of the meridional. The south boundary was the main zonal water-vapor input boundary and the eastern boundary was the main medidional water-vapor output boundary in the Three Rivers Source region,the zonal transport was larger than the meridional transport. The average annual precipitable water vapor was 1998. 3 mm. The annual precipitable water vapor increased slightly from 1979 to 2016,it showed a downward trend from 1979 to 1997,and an increasing trend after 1998,and precipitation also increased during the same period. This phenomenon indicated that the climate in the Three Rivers Source region turned wet during this period. The interannual variation and the mutation year of annual precipitable water vapor was consistent with that of the annual water vapor flux. There were significant differences of precipitatable water vapor value in different seasons. The annual average precipitation conversion efficiency in the study area was 24. 57% and it reached the peak( 32. 76%) in 1989. Spatial distribution of average precipitation conversion efficiency in four seasons was consistent with that of annual average value,they all showed the variation of high in the south and the southeast and low in the west and the northeast. Moreover,a great seasonal difference of precipitation conversion efficiency was recognized. The average precipitation conversion efficiency in spring was 15. 92%,in summer it was 25. 67%,in autumn it was 21. 01%,and in winter it was only 7. 03%.
The spatial-temporal characteristics of precipitable water vapor and water-vapor flux as well as precipitation conversion efficiency in the Three Rivers Source region were discussed through correlation analysis,trend analysis,accumulative anomaly and inverse distance weight based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data( 1° × 1°) produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts( ECMWF) from 1979 to 2016. The results show that the mean meridional and zonal water vapor flux in the past 38 years were 50. 2 and 196. 7 kg·m-1·s~(-1),respectively. The climate tendency rate of zonal water-vapor flux was much higher than that of the meridional. The south boundary was the main zonal water-vapor input boundary and the eastern boundary was the main medidional water-vapor output boundary in the Three Rivers Source region,the zonal transport was larger than the meridional transport. The average annual precipitable water vapor was 1998. 3 mm. The annual precipitable water vapor increased slightly from 1979 to 2016,it showed a downward trend from 1979 to 1997,and an increasing trend after 1998,and precipitation also increased during the same period. This phenomenon indicated that the climate in the Three Rivers Source region turned wet during this period. The interannual variation and the mutation year of annual precipitable water vapor was consistent with that of the annual water vapor flux. There were significant differences of precipitatable water vapor value in different seasons. The annual average precipitation conversion efficiency in the study area was 24. 57% and it reached the peak( 32. 76%) in 1989. Spatial distribution of average precipitation conversion efficiency in four seasons was consistent with that of annual average value,they all showed the variation of high in the south and the southeast and low in the west and the northeast. Moreover,a great seasonal difference of precipitation conversion efficiency was recognized. The average precipitation conversion efficiency in spring was 15. 92%,in summer it was 25. 67%,in autumn it was 21. 01%,and in winter it was only 7. 03%.
引文
[1]李国平,黄丁发,郭洁,等.地基GPS气象学[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[2]周秀骥.应加强开发利用西北地区空中水资源研究[J].科学新闻,2001,45(3):5.
[3]孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,2016,74(4):542-555.
[4]姚俊强,杨青,胡文峰,等.天山山区空中水汽含量及与气候因子的关系[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):859-864.
[5]黄小燕,王圣杰,王小平. 1960—2015年中国西北地区大气可降水量变化特征[J].气象,2018,44(9):1191-1199.
[6]黄露,范广洲,赖欣,等. 1979-2015年青藏高原大气可降水量的变化特征[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(2):94-103.
[7]康晓燕,马学谦,韩辉邦,等. 1981—2015年黄河上游河曲地区大气可降水量变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):975-983.
[8]曾小凡,苏布达,易善桢,等. 1971—2010年三江源地区水汽输送变化分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):187-191.
[9]李仑格.“三江源”地区近30年来可降水量和降水转化率的分析[C]//中国气象学会2007年年会人工影响天气科技进展与应用分会场论文集.中国气象学会,2007:9.
[10]张良,张强,冯建英,等.祁连山地区大气水循环研究(Ⅱ):水循环过程分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1092-1100.
[11]张良,张强,冯建英,等.祁连山地区大气水循环研究(Ⅰ):空中水汽输送年际变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1079-1091.
[12]何奇芳,曾小凡,赵娜,等. ERA-interim再分析数据集在长江上游的适用性[J].人民长江,2018,49(12):30-33.
[13]LIU J L,RONALD E S. Water vapor fluxes over the Saskatchewanriver basin[J]. J Hydrometeor,2003(4):944-959.
[14]LIU J L,RONALD E S,KIT K S. Moisture transport and otherhydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01drought over the western and central Canadian Prairies[J]. J Cli-mate,2003,15:305-319.
[15]颜真梅,母国宏.基于泰森多边形法的流域面平均雨量计算[J].水利科技与经济,2017,23(1):19-22.
[16]房林东,廖卫红,王明元,等.考虑高程的雨量反距离权重插值法研究[J/OL].人民黄河,2015,37(9):38-41.
[17]王宝鉴,黄玉霞,何金海,等.东亚夏季风期间水汽输送与西北干旱的关系[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):912-918.
[18]王炳忠,刘庚山.我国大陆大气水汽含量的计算[J].地理学报,1993,48(3):244-253.
[19]杨金虎,王鹏祥,白虎志,等.中国西北空中可降水量的年内非均匀性特征[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):182-188.
[20]李进,李栋梁,张杰.黄河流域夏季降水有效转化率[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):346-354.
[21]赵玲,安沙舟,杨莲梅,等. 1976—2007年乌鲁木齐可降水量及其降水转化率[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(3):433-437.
[22]周成龙,钟昕洁,杨兴华,等.新疆巴州地区降水量、可降水量及降水转化率计算解析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(6):1204-1211.
[23]卓嘎,边巴次仁,杨秀海,等.近30年西藏地区大气可降水量的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):23-30.
[24]李生辰,李栋梁,赵平,等.青藏高原“三江源地区”雨季水汽输送特征[J].气象学报,2009,67(4):591-598.
[25]范思睿,王维佳,刘东升,等.基于再分析资料的西南区域近50 a空中水资源的气候特征[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):65-72.
[26]张强,张杰,孙国武,等.祁连山区大气水汽分布特征及其受环流系统和地形的影响[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):633-643.
[27]徐栋,孔莹,王澄海,等.西北干旱区水汽收支变化及其与降水的关系[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):431-439.
[28]燕振宁,马学谦.青海高原不同地区大气水汽含量对比分析[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):365-372.
[29]张小军,田建兵.青海省大气可降水量变化特征的探空数据分析[J].青海气象,2013(4):41-45.
[30]刘芸芸,张雪琴.西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征及其原因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(6):385-392.
[31]李璠,肖建设,颜亮东. 1964—2014年青海省三江源地区日降水格局分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):282-288.
[2]周秀骥.应加强开发利用西北地区空中水资源研究[J].科学新闻,2001,45(3):5.
[3]孙建华,汪汇洁,卫捷,等.江淮区域持续性暴雨过程的水汽源地和输送特征[J].气象学报,2016,74(4):542-555.
[4]姚俊强,杨青,胡文峰,等.天山山区空中水汽含量及与气候因子的关系[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):859-864.
[5]黄小燕,王圣杰,王小平. 1960—2015年中国西北地区大气可降水量变化特征[J].气象,2018,44(9):1191-1199.
[6]黄露,范广洲,赖欣,等. 1979-2015年青藏高原大气可降水量的变化特征[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(2):94-103.
[7]康晓燕,马学谦,韩辉邦,等. 1981—2015年黄河上游河曲地区大气可降水量变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(6):975-983.
[8]曾小凡,苏布达,易善桢,等. 1971—2010年三江源地区水汽输送变化分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):187-191.
[9]李仑格.“三江源”地区近30年来可降水量和降水转化率的分析[C]//中国气象学会2007年年会人工影响天气科技进展与应用分会场论文集.中国气象学会,2007:9.
[10]张良,张强,冯建英,等.祁连山地区大气水循环研究(Ⅱ):水循环过程分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1092-1100.
[11]张良,张强,冯建英,等.祁连山地区大气水循环研究(Ⅰ):空中水汽输送年际变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(5):1079-1091.
[12]何奇芳,曾小凡,赵娜,等. ERA-interim再分析数据集在长江上游的适用性[J].人民长江,2018,49(12):30-33.
[13]LIU J L,RONALD E S. Water vapor fluxes over the Saskatchewanriver basin[J]. J Hydrometeor,2003(4):944-959.
[14]LIU J L,RONALD E S,KIT K S. Moisture transport and otherhydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01drought over the western and central Canadian Prairies[J]. J Cli-mate,2003,15:305-319.
[15]颜真梅,母国宏.基于泰森多边形法的流域面平均雨量计算[J].水利科技与经济,2017,23(1):19-22.
[16]房林东,廖卫红,王明元,等.考虑高程的雨量反距离权重插值法研究[J/OL].人民黄河,2015,37(9):38-41.
[17]王宝鉴,黄玉霞,何金海,等.东亚夏季风期间水汽输送与西北干旱的关系[J].高原气象,2004,23(6):912-918.
[18]王炳忠,刘庚山.我国大陆大气水汽含量的计算[J].地理学报,1993,48(3):244-253.
[19]杨金虎,王鹏祥,白虎志,等.中国西北空中可降水量的年内非均匀性特征[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):182-188.
[20]李进,李栋梁,张杰.黄河流域夏季降水有效转化率[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):346-354.
[21]赵玲,安沙舟,杨莲梅,等. 1976—2007年乌鲁木齐可降水量及其降水转化率[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(3):433-437.
[22]周成龙,钟昕洁,杨兴华,等.新疆巴州地区降水量、可降水量及降水转化率计算解析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(6):1204-1211.
[23]卓嘎,边巴次仁,杨秀海,等.近30年西藏地区大气可降水量的时空变化特征[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):23-30.
[24]李生辰,李栋梁,赵平,等.青藏高原“三江源地区”雨季水汽输送特征[J].气象学报,2009,67(4):591-598.
[25]范思睿,王维佳,刘东升,等.基于再分析资料的西南区域近50 a空中水资源的气候特征[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):65-72.
[26]张强,张杰,孙国武,等.祁连山区大气水汽分布特征及其受环流系统和地形的影响[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):633-643.
[27]徐栋,孔莹,王澄海,等.西北干旱区水汽收支变化及其与降水的关系[J].干旱气象,2016,34(3):431-439.
[28]燕振宁,马学谦.青海高原不同地区大气水汽含量对比分析[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):365-372.
[29]张小军,田建兵.青海省大气可降水量变化特征的探空数据分析[J].青海气象,2013(4):41-45.
[30]刘芸芸,张雪琴.西北干旱区空中水资源的时空变化特征及其原因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(6):385-392.
[31]李璠,肖建设,颜亮东. 1964—2014年青海省三江源地区日降水格局分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):282-288.