2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病及死亡趋势分析
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摘要
目的分析《中国肿瘤登记年报》中2005-2013年女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势,为开展乳腺癌防治提供参考。方法提取2005-2013年中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的全部记录;运用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率的变化趋势。结果2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率水平高于农村,城市发病率变化趋势平稳(t=-0. 2,P=0. 828),农村发病率呈现上升趋势(t=7. 8,P <0. 001);城市和农村发病率高峰分别为50～岁、45～岁年龄组。2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌死亡率水平高于农村,城市死亡率变化趋势平稳(t=0. 8,P=0. 458),农村死亡率上升趋势明显(t=3. 3,P=0. 014);城市女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,75岁之后加速上升,农村女性死亡率在30岁之后开始上升,55～69岁变化趋于平稳,70岁后又开始上升。结论 2005-2013年我国城市女性乳腺癌发病率及死亡率均高于农村女性,农村女性乳腺癌发病率与死亡率上升趋势明显,应积极制定并完善乳腺癌防治措施。
Objective To Analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013 in the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report in order to provide references for the implement of the prophylaxis and treatment of breast cancer. Methods Extracted all the records of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013,applied the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women. Results The incidence levels of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban incidence was stable( t =-0. 2,P = 0. 828),the rural incidence showed an increasing trend( t = 7. 8,P < 0. 001). The peaks of urban and rural incidence were in the age group of 50-and the age group of 45-respectively. The mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban mortality was stable( t = 0. 8,P = 0. 458),and the rising trend of rural mortality was obvious( t = 3. 3,P = 0. 014). The mortality of urban women began to rise after the age of 30,accelerating to rise after the age of 75,the mortality of rural women began to rise after the age of 30,the change tended to be stable at the age of 55-69,and began to rise after the age of 70 again. Conclusions The incidence and mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China were all higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the rising trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among rural women was obvious,so the prophylaxis and treatment measures of breast cancer should be actively formulated and perfected.
Objective To Analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013 in the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report in order to provide references for the implement of the prophylaxis and treatment of breast cancer. Methods Extracted all the records of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women from 2005 to 2013,applied the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the change trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in Chinese women. Results The incidence levels of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban incidence was stable( t =-0. 2,P = 0. 828),the rural incidence showed an increasing trend( t = 7. 8,P < 0. 001). The peaks of urban and rural incidence were in the age group of 50-and the age group of 45-respectively. The mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China was higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the change trend of urban mortality was stable( t = 0. 8,P = 0. 458),and the rising trend of rural mortality was obvious( t = 3. 3,P = 0. 014). The mortality of urban women began to rise after the age of 30,accelerating to rise after the age of 75,the mortality of rural women began to rise after the age of 30,the change tended to be stable at the age of 55-69,and began to rise after the age of 70 again. Conclusions The incidence and mortality of breast cancer among urban women in China were all higher than that in rural from 2005 to 2013,the rising trend of the incidence and mortality of breast cancer among rural women was obvious,so the prophylaxis and treatment measures of breast cancer should be actively formulated and perfected.
引文
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[17]成娟,梁轩,郑森爽,等.基于Lasso Logistic回归模型的乳腺癌高风险人群筛查利用相关因素研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2018,22(6):551-554,559.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.06.003.Cheng J,Liang X,Zheng SS,et al.Predictors of breast cancer screening utilization among female at high risk of developing breast cancer:application of a Lasso Logistic model[J].Chin J Dis Control Prev,2018,22(6):551-554,559.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.06.003.
[18]王璟,芦文丽,王媛,等.中国女性乳腺癌筛查现状分析及优化策略[J].中国妇幼保健,2013,28(18):2864-2867.DOI:1001-4411(2013)18-2864-04.Wang J,Lu WL,Wang Y,et al.Screening situation and optimization strategy of breast cancer for Chinese women[J].Mat Child Health China,2013,28(18):2864-2867.DOI:1001-4411(2013)18-2864-04.
[19]De Santis CE,Bray F,Ferlay J,et al.International variation in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates[J].Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev,2015,24(10):1495-1506.DIO:10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-15-0535.
[2]陈万青,郑荣寿,张思维,等.2013年中国恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(1):1-7.DOI:10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2017.01.A001.Chen WQ,Zheng RS,Zhang SW,et al.Report of cancer incidence and mortality in China,2013[J].China Cancer,2017,26(1):1-7.DOI:10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2017.01.A001.
[3]施红旗,刘庆伟,楼善贤,等.乳腺癌组织学分级及预后因素分析[J].实用肿瘤学杂志,2004,(5):357-358.Shi HQ,Liu QW,Lou SX,et al.Analysis of histological grade and prognostic factors in breast cancer[J].Journal of Practical Oncology,2004,(5):357-358.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-3070.2004.05.015.
[4]李苗,梁星星,王春梅,等.乳腺癌易感基因BRCA1/BRCA2研究发展及乳腺癌的诊断治疗展望[J].基因组学与应用生物学,2017,36(9):3648-3654.Li M,Liang XX,Wang CM,et al.The Research Progress of BRCA1/BRCA2 and the Prospect of the Diagnose and Treatment of Breast Cancer[J].Genomics and Applied Biology,2017,36(9):3648-3654.DOI:10.13417/j.gab.036.003648.
[5]杨阳,黄鑫,向尹,等.CD44基因rs13347位点多态性与乳腺癌发生及转移的相关性研究[J].国际检验医学杂志,2018,39(10):1220-1223.Yang Y,Huang X,Xiang Y,et al.Association of CD44 gene rs13347 polymorphism with occurrence and metastasis of breast cancer[J].International Journal of Laboratory Medicine,2018,39(10):1220-1223.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-4130.2018.10.017.
[6]赫捷,陈万青.中国肿瘤登记年报(2016)[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2017:10-25.He J,Chen WQ.Chinese journal of cancer research(2016)[M].Beijing:Tsinghau University Press,2017:10-25.
[7]Kim HJ,Fay MP,Feuer EJ,et al.Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates[J].Stat Med,2000,19(3):335-351.DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(20000215)19:3<335::AID-SIM336>3.0.CO;2-Z.
[8]National Cancer Institute.Joinpoint trend analysis software(v.4.5.0.1)[EB/OL].(2017-06-12).https://surveillance.cancer.gov/help/joinpoint.
[9]熊小玲,刘杰,朱丽萍,等.2010-2014年江西省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病率及时间趋势分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2017,21(10):1002-1004,1013.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.10.008.Xiong XL,Liu J,Zhu LP,et al.Analysis of the incidence trend of lung cancer in tumor registries of Jiangxi Province from 2010 to2014[J].Chin J Dis Control Prev,2017,21(10):1002-1004,1013.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2017.10.008.
[10]Atuhairwe C,Amongin D,Agaba E,et al.The effect of knowledge on uptake of breast cancer prevention modalities among women in Kyadondo County,Uganda[J].BMC Public Health,2018,18(1):279.DOI:10.1186/s12889-018-5183-5.
[11]徐玲.乳腺癌的三级预防[J].临床医药文献电子杂志,2015,2(31):6554-6556.Xu L.Tertiary prevention of breast cancer[J].J Clin Med,2015,2(31):6554-6556.DOI:10.16281/j.cnki.jocml.2015.31.142.
[12]丁贤彬,吕晓燕,毛德强.2006-2014年重庆市女性乳腺癌发病特点及趋势分析[J].中国健康教育,2016,32(9):779-782,786.DOI:10.16168/j.cnki.issn.1002-9982.2016.09.003.Ding XB,Lv XY,Mao DQ.The incidence of female breast cancer and its trend in Chongqing,2006-2014[J].Chin J Health Ed,2016,32(9):779-782,786.DOI:10.16168/j.cnki.issn.1002-9982.2016.09.003.
[13]甘志娟,姜宪尘,王圣贤,等.2010-2014年衢州市女性乳腺癌发病和死亡趋势分析[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2016,24(9):711-714.DOI:10.16386/j.cjpccd.issn.1004-6194.2016.09.021.Gan ZJ,Jiang XC,Wang SX,et al.Trend analysis of female breast cancer incidence and mortality in Quzhou from 2010 to 2014[J].Chin J Prev Chron Dis,2016,24(9):711-714.DOI:10.16386/j.cjpccd.issn.1004-6194.2016.09.021.
[14]戴丹,查震球,吴刚,等.安徽省2010-2012年乳腺癌发病趋势分析[J].中国预防医学杂志,2017,18(5):391-393.DOI:10.16506/j.1009-6639.2017.05.016.Dai D,Zha ZQ,Wu G,et al.Trend analysis of breast cancer incidence in Anhui from 2010 to 2012[J].Chin Prev Med,2017,18(5):391-393.DOI:10.16506/j.1009-6639.2017.05.016.
[15]王珊,石红宇,孔雯雯,等.中国高发乳腺癌危险因素的最新进展[J].临床护理杂志,2017,16(1):72-75.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-8933.2017.01.029.Wang S,Shi Y,Kong WW,et al.The latest progress of risk factors for high incidence of breast cancer in China[J].J Clin Nurs,2017,16(1):72-75.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-8933.2017.01.029.
[16]杨雷,孙婷婷,袁延楠,等.北京市女性居民乳腺癌发病与经济发展水平的相关性分析[J].中华肿瘤杂志,2014,(9):713-716.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-3766.2014.09.016.Yang L,Sun TT,Yuan YN,et al.Relationship between female breast cancer incidence and the socioeconomic status in Beijing[J].Chin J Oncol,2014,(9):713-716.DOI:10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-3766.2014.09.016.
[17]成娟,梁轩,郑森爽,等.基于Lasso Logistic回归模型的乳腺癌高风险人群筛查利用相关因素研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2018,22(6):551-554,559.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.06.003.Cheng J,Liang X,Zheng SS,et al.Predictors of breast cancer screening utilization among female at high risk of developing breast cancer:application of a Lasso Logistic model[J].Chin J Dis Control Prev,2018,22(6):551-554,559.DOI:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2018.06.003.
[18]王璟,芦文丽,王媛,等.中国女性乳腺癌筛查现状分析及优化策略[J].中国妇幼保健,2013,28(18):2864-2867.DOI:1001-4411(2013)18-2864-04.Wang J,Lu WL,Wang Y,et al.Screening situation and optimization strategy of breast cancer for Chinese women[J].Mat Child Health China,2013,28(18):2864-2867.DOI:1001-4411(2013)18-2864-04.
[19]De Santis CE,Bray F,Ferlay J,et al.International variation in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates[J].Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev,2015,24(10):1495-1506.DIO:10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-15-0535.