叙利亚重建的困境、归因与超越
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摘要
随着叙利亚战事逐步进入收尾阶段,叙利亚重建工作遂进入重要阶段。对于历经多年战乱的叙利亚来说,政治、经济、安全的重建及对外关系的重塑与调适,是重建进程中相互独立且彼此交织的议题。在政治领域,叙利亚政府将与各个反对派政治团体、库尔德人展开政治博弈,涉及中央政府权力分配与地方自治机构的未来安排;在经济领域,叙利亚政府需要尽快恢复与提振受战争重挫的国民经济,其中资金短缺是核心问题;在安全领域,关键点在于如何处理叙利亚政府军和各个反政府武装之间的复杂关系,停止国内冲突与保持社会稳定;在对外关系领域,则涉及叙利亚政府与周边大国和国际社会如何重构彼此关系。基于叙利亚重建面临的多重挑战,该国政府需要与各方协调,妥善解决好如何定义"重建"、谁来协调"重建"和谁来帮助"重建"三个问题。
As the Syria civil war enters its final stage,national reconstruction process has become an important topic for both Syria and the international society.For Syria reconstruction process,political reconstruction,economic reconstruction,security reconstruction and diplomatic adjustment are four issues that are both interconnecting with and independent of each other.The political reconstruction not only concerns with the competition between Syria central government and various opposition groups and Kurdish groups,but also closely relates to political arrangement between central government and local authorities.The economic reconstruction mainly relates to Syria government's plan to restore Syrian economic development capability,while the major obstacle is how to collect enough money for various construction projects.The key of the security reconstruction is how to reconstruct the relation between government forces and various rebel groups in Syria,how to end hostility between different groups,and how to maintain social stability.For Syria's diplomatic policy,the major obstacle is how to adjust the relations between Syria and different international and regional powers.The reconstruction process in Syria could be summarized as three main questions,namely "how" to reconstruct,"who" to reconstruct and "which" states to involve the reconstruction.
As the Syria civil war enters its final stage,national reconstruction process has become an important topic for both Syria and the international society.For Syria reconstruction process,political reconstruction,economic reconstruction,security reconstruction and diplomatic adjustment are four issues that are both interconnecting with and independent of each other.The political reconstruction not only concerns with the competition between Syria central government and various opposition groups and Kurdish groups,but also closely relates to political arrangement between central government and local authorities.The economic reconstruction mainly relates to Syria government's plan to restore Syrian economic development capability,while the major obstacle is how to collect enough money for various construction projects.The key of the security reconstruction is how to reconstruct the relation between government forces and various rebel groups in Syria,how to end hostility between different groups,and how to maintain social stability.For Syria's diplomatic policy,the major obstacle is how to adjust the relations between Syria and different international and regional powers.The reconstruction process in Syria could be summarized as three main questions,namely "how" to reconstruct,"who" to reconstruct and "which" states to involve the reconstruction.
引文
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(2)参见岳汉景:《美俄入叙军事打击“伊斯兰国”——法律依据差异及其背后的话语权之争》,载《国际观察》2017年第2期,第119～131页;周烈:《叙利亚危机中的大国博弈》,载《阿拉伯研究论丛》2016年第1期,第3～20页;何志龙:《论伊朗对叙利亚巴沙尔政权支持的原因及影响》,载《陕西师范大学学报》(哲学社会科学版)2017年第6期,第144～155页;钮松:《当前美俄在叙利亚问题上的博弈与合作》,载《长江论坛》2016年第6期,第62～69页;章波:《美俄在叙利亚问题上的新博弈》,载《当代世界》2016年第11期,第38～41页;戴晓琦:《叙利亚问题大国博弈图景及其展望》,载《阿拉伯研究论丛》2016年第1期,第21～33页;李游、王乐:《土耳其在叙利亚危机中的困境:原因与前景》,载《国际关系研究》2017年第5期,第134～151页。
(3)参见翁里、张凯琳:《国际法解决叙利亚难民问题初探》,载《政法学刊》2016年第3期,第62～69页;崔守军、刘燕君:《土耳其对叙利亚难民危机的应对及其影响》,载《西亚非洲》2016年第6期,第74～90页;王霏、张丹:《阿萨德统治时期叙利亚阿拉维派的认同困境》,载《世界宗教文化》2017年第1期,第21～26页;包澄章:《“支持阵线”的演变与“基地”组织的战略选择》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2017年第6期,第63～77页;赵萱:《难民、客人、避难寻求者?——叙利亚避难者的身份困境与现实出路》,载《国际论坛》2016年第5期,第66～71页;汪波:《叙利亚内战中的外籍武装人员研究》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2016年第5期,第50～64页。
(4)参见:李世俊、马晓霖:《“一带一路”对接叙利亚战后重建:时势评估与前景展望》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第2期,第76～89页;王晋:《叙利亚重建面临的政治、经济和外交挑战》,载《国际关系研究》2018年第2期,第27～45页。
(5)“Syria Opposition Joins Meeting of Arab League”,New York Times, March 26,2013,https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/middleeast/syrian～opposition-group-takes-seat-at-arab-league.html,2018-10-08.
(6)关于叙利亚“穆斯林兄弟会”的历史,参见王新刚:前引书,第275～278页。
(7)“Interview:Muslim Brotherhood Leader Walid”,The Syrian Observer,17 February 2015,http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/28642/Interview_Muslim_Brotherhood_Leader_Walid,2018-10-01.
(8)“Q&A:We Want to Build a New Syria’ Is Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood Still Relevant?”,Aljazeera,26 May 2015,http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/01/qa-want-build-new-syria-20151 146413892728.html,2018-10-10.
(9)“Interview with Ziyad Hasan”,Orsam,March 20,2013,http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2013320_150ing.pdf,2018-10-08.
(10)“Syria Opposition Seeks Unified Front at Riyadh Conference”,BBC,December 8,2016,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35035232,2018-10-09.
(11)“30 Rebel Groups Merge under Interim Government’s Banner,Form ‘the National Army’”,Zaman al-Wasl,December 31,2017,http://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/article/31991,2018-10-10.
(12)“Interim Local Council Established in Syria’s Afrin”,Hurriyet Daily News,April 12,2018,http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/interim-local-council-established-in-syrias-afrin-130227,2018-10-10.
(13)“叙利亚临时政府”2013年成立于土耳其最大城市伊斯坦布尔,随后迁往叙利亚境内的阿扎兹。2017年8月,“叙利亚临时政府”宣布不再为其工作人员发放工资,“临时政府”工作人员由“志愿者”组成。关于土耳其在叙利亚北部的介入,See “Charles Lister,Turkey’s Idlib Incursion and the HTS Question:Understanding the Long Game in Syria”,War on Rocks,October 31,2017,https://waron-therocks.com/2017/10/turkeys-idlib-incursion-and-the-hts-question-understanding-the-long-game-in-syria,2018-10-10。
(14)“Turkey Puts Down Roots in a Corner of War-Torn Syria”,Los Angeles Times, July 13,2018,http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-turkey-syria-20180713-story.html,2018-10-09.
(15)《北叙利亚民主联邦宪法》第12条,See “The Constitution of the Rojava Cantons”,https://civiroglu.net/the-constitution-of-the-rojava-cantons,2018-10-08。
(16)“Kurdish-Arab Coalition in Syria Forms Political Wing”,Aljazeera,December 11,2015,http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/11/kurdish-arab-coalition-in-syria-forms-political-wing. html,2018-10-07.
(17)“Syria Civil War:Kurds Declares Federal Region in North”,Aljazeera,March 18,2016,https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/syria-civil-war-kurds-declare-federal-system-north-160317111 902534.html,2018-10-03.
(18)“New Administration Formed for Northeastern Syria”,Kurdistan24,September 7,2018,http://www. kurdistan24.net/en/news/c9e03dab-6265-4a9a-91ee-ea8d2a93c657,2018-10-03.
(19)“Kurds Step up Efforts to Form Self-government in Northeast Syria”,al-Monitor,September 18,2018,https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/09/syria-kurds-general-council-government.html,2018-10-04.
(20)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与侨民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages1002,2018-10-10。
(21)《叙利亚反恐战斗进入最后阶段》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与侨民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/news908,2018-10-10。
(22)“Syria Referendum Called ‘A Shame’”,PRI, February 27,2012,https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-02-27/syria-referendum-called-sham,2018-10-01.
(23)“Factbox:Referendum on Syria’s New Constitution”,Reuters,February 25,2012,https://www. reuters.com/article/2012/02/25/us-syria-constitution-idUSTRE81O0BT20120225,2018-10-11.
(24)“Dr.Bashar Hafez al-Assad Wins Post of President of Syria with Sweeping Majority of Votes at 88.7%”,SANA,June 4,2014,https://web.archive.org/web/20140606232612/http://sana.sy/eng/393/2014/06/04/548613.htm,2018-10-07.
(25)“Syrians Cast Their Votes for Municipal Elections for The First Time since 2011”,Telesur, September 16,2018,https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Syrians-Vote-in-First-Local-Elections-Since-2011-20180916-0004.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=13,2018-10-01.
(26)Eyal Zizzer,“Why Has Bashar Won the War in Syria”,Strategic Assessment,Vol.21,No.2,July 2018,p.66.
(27)“解放沙姆阵线”在2017年之前名为“征服沙姆阵线”( Jabhat Fateh al-Sham)。
(28)关于“征服阵线”和“伊斯兰国”的关系,参见王晋:《“伊斯兰国”与恐怖主义的变形》,载《外交评论》2015年第2期,第138～158页。
(29)“Syria’s Civil War Has Been Raging for 7 Years,What’s Behind It?”,NBC News,February 22,2018,https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/syria-s-civil-war-has-been-raging-7-years-what-n849851,2018-10-02.
(30)Aron Lund,Syrian War:Understanding Idlib’s Rebel Factions,IRIN, September 3,2018,https://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2018/09/03/syrian-war-understanding-idlib-s-rebel-factions,2018-10-02.
(31)王晋:《土耳其出兵阿夫林,在向谁“秀肌肉”?》,载中国网:http://opinion.china.com.cn/opinion_89_177889.html,2018-10-01。
(32)这些军事团体包括:“人民保卫军”“妇女保卫军”(Women’s Protection Units,YPJ)、“勇者军团”(Al-Sanadid Forces)、“幼发拉底怒火”(Euphrates Volcano)、“拉卡革命军”(Liwa Thuwar al-Raqqa)、“叙利亚军事委员会”(Syriac Military Council)、“变革军”(Jaysh al-Thuwar)等。
(33)《北叙利亚民主联邦宪法》第15条,See The Constitution of the Rojava Cantons,https://civiroglu.net/the-constitution-of-the-rojava-cantons,2018-10-07。
(34)“Coalition Works with SDF as They are Multi-Ethnic Force,Spokesman Says”,NRT,March 19,2017,http://www.nrttv.com/EN/Details.aspx?Jimare=13261,2018-09-28.
(35)“Global Powers Seek to Revive Diplomatic Process”,The Economist,February 12,2016,http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1363937520&Country=Syria&topic=Politics,2018-09-30.
(36)关于叙利亚库尔德人、“库尔德工人党”和叙利亚中央政府之间的关系,See “Till F Paasche,Syrian and Iraqi Kurds:Conflict and Cooperation”,Middle East Policy,Vol.22,No.1,2015,pp.77-88。
(37)Richard Hall,“Syria’s Kurds Prepare for a Future Without the US”,the National,August 5,2018,https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/syria-s-kurds-prepare-for-a-future-without-the-us-1.757187,2018-10-01.
(38)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,International Monetary Fund Working Paper,June 2016,p.10,https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16123.pdf,2018-10-01.
(39)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation! Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February 11,2016,p.19,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3 bc9bfbc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(40)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation! Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February 11,2016,p.21,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3 b9bfbc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(41)NENA Economic Monitor,The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA,World Bank Group,Washington,April 2017,p.22.
(42)“War Has Cost $226 Billion to Syria Economy:World Bank”,Economic Times, July 10,2017,https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/war-has-cost-226-billion-to-syria-economy-world-bank/articleshow/59532701.cms,2018-10-01.
(43)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,International Monetary Fund Working Paper,June 2016,pp.12-13.https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16123.pdf,2018-10-01.
(44)吴菲菲:《战火中的叙利亚经济》,载《环球财经》2015年第10期,第76页。
(45)杨光:《中东黄皮书:中东发展报告No.18(2015-2016)》,社会科学文献出版社,2016年版,第193页。
(46)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation!Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February11,2016,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3bc9bf bc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(47)NENA Economic Monitor,The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA,World Bank Group,Washington,April 2017,p.21.
(48)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,IMF Working Paper,June 2016,p.7.
(49)World Bank,“Syria’s Economic Outlook”,Spring 2016,http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/230181460208812912/Syria-MEM.pdf,2018-10-01.
(50)“Syria Index 2017”,https://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/syria/syria_economy.html,2018-09-30.
(51)EIU,Country Risk Service:Syria,July 2018,p.21.
(52)EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2018,p.9.
(53)EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2012,p.8;EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2018,p.19.
(54)Wang Jin,“Will China Pay for Syria to Rebuild?”,The Diplomat,February 16,2017,http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/will-china-pay-for-syria-to-rebuild,2018-10-09.
(55)“The Syrian Refugee Crisis and Its Repercussions for the EU”,http://syrianrefugees.eu,2018-10-08.
(56)其中被联合国难民署(UNHCR)登记在册的难民有约510万,而据一些媒体估计,大约有600多万平民因为战火离开叙利亚,“Life and death in Syria”,BBC News,March 15,2016,http://www.bbc. co.uk/news/resources/idt-841ebc3a-1be9-493b-8800-2c04890e8fc9,2018-10-01。
(57)See UNHCR,“Syria Regional Refugee Response”,http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/asylum.php,2018-10-01.
(58)关于伊朗援助叙利亚政府的资金数额,学术界仍存在争议,See Eli Lake,“Iran Spends Billions to Prop Up Assad”,Bloomberg,June 9,2015,https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-06-09/iran-spends-billions-to-prop-up-assad,2018-09-29。
(59)包括来自于黎巴嫩的“真主党”,来自于阿富汗什叶派武装人员组建的“法蒂玛旅”(Liwa Fatemiyoun),来自伊拉克什叶派的“萨义德烈士营”( Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada)和“圣者联盟”(Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq)等。
(60)“Syrian PM Says Iran Coordinated Its Ballistic Missile Strikes”,The Washington Post, October 2,2018,https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/middle_east/syria-fm-says-iran-coordinated-its-ballistic-missile-strikes/2018/10/02/ff2d78cc-c62d-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?noredirect=on,2018-10-02.
(61)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages997,2018-10-10。
(62)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站: http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages1002,2018-06-24。
(63)“ISIS,Al-Qaeda Fighters May Scatter to Turkey”,Ahval,April 5,2018,https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-syria/isis-al-qaeda-fighters-may-scatter-turkey-analysis,2018-10-01.
(64)比如,沙特在2018年8月表示,愿意出资1亿美元,在美国的协调下组建新的叙利亚反对派武装。“Saudi Arabia to Contribute $100 Million to US-Backed Efforts in Syria”,Wall Street Journal,August 17,2018,https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-to-contribute-100-million-to-u-s-backed-efforts-in-syria-1534469569,2018-10-10.
(65)王晋:《想说离开不容易:特朗普想撤离叙利亚面临国内和盟友的压力》,2018年4月2日,http://www.thepaper.cn/baidu.jsp?contid=2055119,2018-10-11。
(66)“US Sends More Forces to Syria’s At-Tanf as Russia Prepares to Attack Border Area”,Alwaght,September 9,2018,http://alwaght.com/en/News/139276/US-Sends-More-Forces-to-Syria%E2%80%99s-At-Tanf-as-Russia-Prepares-to-Attack-Border-Area,2018-10-01.
(67)《总统阁下在外事与移民事务部会议上的演讲》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages903,2018-10-10。
(68)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》。
(69)同上文。
(70)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》。
(71)同上文。
(72)关于叙利亚的“威权”政治特征,参见王新刚、马帅:《哈菲兹·阿萨德时期叙利亚政治体制解析》,载《西亚非洲》2015年第5期,第65～80页。
(73)“English Translation of the Syrian Constitution”,Qordoba,February 15,2012,https://www. scribd.com/doc/81771718/Qordoba-Translation-of-the-Syrian-Constitution-Modifications-15-2-2012,2018-09-30.
(74)《阿萨德总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访:任何宪法改革都应当服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》。
(75)“The Syrian National Council”,Carnegie Middle East Center,http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/48334 lang=en,2018-10-04.
(76)“Syria Opposition Meeting in Riyadh Sees No Role for Assad in Transition”,Reuters,November 23,2017,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-opposition/syrias-assad-should-leave-before-start-of-transition-opposition-idUSKBN1DN1BB?il=0,2018-10-04.
(77)Eva Savelsberg and Jordi Tejel,“The Syrian Kurds in Transition to Somewhere”,in Michael Gunter eds.,Out of Nowhere:The Kurds of Syria in Peace and Warm,London:Hurst,2013,p.212.
(78)“Russia Clarifies Key Goals of Sochi Congress for Syrian Opposition”,TASS,January 23,2018,http://tass.com/politics/986376,2018-10-07.
(79)“Syrian Constitutional Reform Tops Agenda on First Day of Sochi Talks”,PressTV,July 30,2018,https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569740/Russia-Syrian-constitutional-reform-tops-agenda-on-Sochi-talks,2018-10-01.
(80)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》。
(81)王新刚、王晋:《新一轮和谈破裂,叙利亚问题不好解决》,载《新京报》2017年12月18日。
(82)王晋:《参与叙利亚重建前,有必要了解下当地的经济社会现实》,载观察者网站:https://www.guancha.cn/WangJin/2017_07_19_418900.shtml,2018-10-08。
(83)李世峻、马晓霖:《“一带一路”对接叙利亚战后重建:时势评估与前景展望》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第2期,第88页。
(84)王晋:《叙利亚和平进程的中国角色》,载《环球时报》2018年2月6日。
(2)参见岳汉景:《美俄入叙军事打击“伊斯兰国”——法律依据差异及其背后的话语权之争》,载《国际观察》2017年第2期,第119～131页;周烈:《叙利亚危机中的大国博弈》,载《阿拉伯研究论丛》2016年第1期,第3～20页;何志龙:《论伊朗对叙利亚巴沙尔政权支持的原因及影响》,载《陕西师范大学学报》(哲学社会科学版)2017年第6期,第144～155页;钮松:《当前美俄在叙利亚问题上的博弈与合作》,载《长江论坛》2016年第6期,第62～69页;章波:《美俄在叙利亚问题上的新博弈》,载《当代世界》2016年第11期,第38～41页;戴晓琦:《叙利亚问题大国博弈图景及其展望》,载《阿拉伯研究论丛》2016年第1期,第21～33页;李游、王乐:《土耳其在叙利亚危机中的困境:原因与前景》,载《国际关系研究》2017年第5期,第134～151页。
(3)参见翁里、张凯琳:《国际法解决叙利亚难民问题初探》,载《政法学刊》2016年第3期,第62～69页;崔守军、刘燕君:《土耳其对叙利亚难民危机的应对及其影响》,载《西亚非洲》2016年第6期,第74～90页;王霏、张丹:《阿萨德统治时期叙利亚阿拉维派的认同困境》,载《世界宗教文化》2017年第1期,第21～26页;包澄章:《“支持阵线”的演变与“基地”组织的战略选择》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2017年第6期,第63～77页;赵萱:《难民、客人、避难寻求者?——叙利亚避难者的身份困境与现实出路》,载《国际论坛》2016年第5期,第66～71页;汪波:《叙利亚内战中的外籍武装人员研究》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2016年第5期,第50～64页。
(4)参见:李世俊、马晓霖:《“一带一路”对接叙利亚战后重建:时势评估与前景展望》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第2期,第76～89页;王晋:《叙利亚重建面临的政治、经济和外交挑战》,载《国际关系研究》2018年第2期,第27～45页。
(5)“Syria Opposition Joins Meeting of Arab League”,New York Times, March 26,2013,https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/middleeast/syrian～opposition-group-takes-seat-at-arab-league.html,2018-10-08.
(6)关于叙利亚“穆斯林兄弟会”的历史,参见王新刚:前引书,第275～278页。
(7)“Interview:Muslim Brotherhood Leader Walid”,The Syrian Observer,17 February 2015,http://syrianobserver.com/EN/News/28642/Interview_Muslim_Brotherhood_Leader_Walid,2018-10-01.
(8)“Q&A:We Want to Build a New Syria’ Is Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood Still Relevant?”,Aljazeera,26 May 2015,http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2015/01/qa-want-build-new-syria-20151 146413892728.html,2018-10-10.
(9)“Interview with Ziyad Hasan”,Orsam,March 20,2013,http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2013320_150ing.pdf,2018-10-08.
(10)“Syria Opposition Seeks Unified Front at Riyadh Conference”,BBC,December 8,2016,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35035232,2018-10-09.
(11)“30 Rebel Groups Merge under Interim Government’s Banner,Form ‘the National Army’”,Zaman al-Wasl,December 31,2017,http://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/article/31991,2018-10-10.
(12)“Interim Local Council Established in Syria’s Afrin”,Hurriyet Daily News,April 12,2018,http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/interim-local-council-established-in-syrias-afrin-130227,2018-10-10.
(13)“叙利亚临时政府”2013年成立于土耳其最大城市伊斯坦布尔,随后迁往叙利亚境内的阿扎兹。2017年8月,“叙利亚临时政府”宣布不再为其工作人员发放工资,“临时政府”工作人员由“志愿者”组成。关于土耳其在叙利亚北部的介入,See “Charles Lister,Turkey’s Idlib Incursion and the HTS Question:Understanding the Long Game in Syria”,War on Rocks,October 31,2017,https://waron-therocks.com/2017/10/turkeys-idlib-incursion-and-the-hts-question-understanding-the-long-game-in-syria,2018-10-10。
(14)“Turkey Puts Down Roots in a Corner of War-Torn Syria”,Los Angeles Times, July 13,2018,http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-turkey-syria-20180713-story.html,2018-10-09.
(15)《北叙利亚民主联邦宪法》第12条,See “The Constitution of the Rojava Cantons”,https://civiroglu.net/the-constitution-of-the-rojava-cantons,2018-10-08。
(16)“Kurdish-Arab Coalition in Syria Forms Political Wing”,Aljazeera,December 11,2015,http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/11/kurdish-arab-coalition-in-syria-forms-political-wing. html,2018-10-07.
(17)“Syria Civil War:Kurds Declares Federal Region in North”,Aljazeera,March 18,2016,https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/03/syria-civil-war-kurds-declare-federal-system-north-160317111 902534.html,2018-10-03.
(18)“New Administration Formed for Northeastern Syria”,Kurdistan24,September 7,2018,http://www. kurdistan24.net/en/news/c9e03dab-6265-4a9a-91ee-ea8d2a93c657,2018-10-03.
(19)“Kurds Step up Efforts to Form Self-government in Northeast Syria”,al-Monitor,September 18,2018,https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/09/syria-kurds-general-council-government.html,2018-10-04.
(20)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与侨民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages1002,2018-10-10。
(21)《叙利亚反恐战斗进入最后阶段》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与侨民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/news908,2018-10-10。
(22)“Syria Referendum Called ‘A Shame’”,PRI, February 27,2012,https://www.pri.org/stories/2012-02-27/syria-referendum-called-sham,2018-10-01.
(23)“Factbox:Referendum on Syria’s New Constitution”,Reuters,February 25,2012,https://www. reuters.com/article/2012/02/25/us-syria-constitution-idUSTRE81O0BT20120225,2018-10-11.
(24)“Dr.Bashar Hafez al-Assad Wins Post of President of Syria with Sweeping Majority of Votes at 88.7%”,SANA,June 4,2014,https://web.archive.org/web/20140606232612/http://sana.sy/eng/393/2014/06/04/548613.htm,2018-10-07.
(25)“Syrians Cast Their Votes for Municipal Elections for The First Time since 2011”,Telesur, September 16,2018,https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Syrians-Vote-in-First-Local-Elections-Since-2011-20180916-0004.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=13,2018-10-01.
(26)Eyal Zizzer,“Why Has Bashar Won the War in Syria”,Strategic Assessment,Vol.21,No.2,July 2018,p.66.
(27)“解放沙姆阵线”在2017年之前名为“征服沙姆阵线”( Jabhat Fateh al-Sham)。
(28)关于“征服阵线”和“伊斯兰国”的关系,参见王晋:《“伊斯兰国”与恐怖主义的变形》,载《外交评论》2015年第2期,第138～158页。
(29)“Syria’s Civil War Has Been Raging for 7 Years,What’s Behind It?”,NBC News,February 22,2018,https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/syria-s-civil-war-has-been-raging-7-years-what-n849851,2018-10-02.
(30)Aron Lund,Syrian War:Understanding Idlib’s Rebel Factions,IRIN, September 3,2018,https://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2018/09/03/syrian-war-understanding-idlib-s-rebel-factions,2018-10-02.
(31)王晋:《土耳其出兵阿夫林,在向谁“秀肌肉”?》,载中国网:http://opinion.china.com.cn/opinion_89_177889.html,2018-10-01。
(32)这些军事团体包括:“人民保卫军”“妇女保卫军”(Women’s Protection Units,YPJ)、“勇者军团”(Al-Sanadid Forces)、“幼发拉底怒火”(Euphrates Volcano)、“拉卡革命军”(Liwa Thuwar al-Raqqa)、“叙利亚军事委员会”(Syriac Military Council)、“变革军”(Jaysh al-Thuwar)等。
(33)《北叙利亚民主联邦宪法》第15条,See The Constitution of the Rojava Cantons,https://civiroglu.net/the-constitution-of-the-rojava-cantons,2018-10-07。
(34)“Coalition Works with SDF as They are Multi-Ethnic Force,Spokesman Says”,NRT,March 19,2017,http://www.nrttv.com/EN/Details.aspx?Jimare=13261,2018-09-28.
(35)“Global Powers Seek to Revive Diplomatic Process”,The Economist,February 12,2016,http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1363937520&Country=Syria&topic=Politics,2018-09-30.
(36)关于叙利亚库尔德人、“库尔德工人党”和叙利亚中央政府之间的关系,See “Till F Paasche,Syrian and Iraqi Kurds:Conflict and Cooperation”,Middle East Policy,Vol.22,No.1,2015,pp.77-88。
(37)Richard Hall,“Syria’s Kurds Prepare for a Future Without the US”,the National,August 5,2018,https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/syria-s-kurds-prepare-for-a-future-without-the-us-1.757187,2018-10-01.
(38)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,International Monetary Fund Working Paper,June 2016,p.10,https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16123.pdf,2018-10-01.
(39)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation! Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February 11,2016,p.19,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3 bc9bfbc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(40)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation! Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February 11,2016,p.21,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3 b9bfbc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(41)NENA Economic Monitor,The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA,World Bank Group,Washington,April 2017,p.22.
(42)“War Has Cost $226 Billion to Syria Economy:World Bank”,Economic Times, July 10,2017,https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/war-has-cost-226-billion-to-syria-economy-world-bank/articleshow/59532701.cms,2018-10-01.
(43)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,International Monetary Fund Working Paper,June 2016,pp.12-13.https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16123.pdf,2018-10-01.
(44)吴菲菲:《战火中的叙利亚经济》,载《环球财经》2015年第10期,第76页。
(45)杨光:《中东黄皮书:中东发展报告No.18(2015-2016)》,社会科学文献出版社,2016年版,第193页。
(46)Syrian Centre for Policy Research (SCPR),Syria Confronting Fragmentation!Impact of Syrian Crisis Report,February11,2016,https://www.ara.cat/2016/02/11/1520927894.pdf?hash=3a186be3bc9bf bc70d11f0241fd49d847f7f0042,2018-09-29.
(47)NENA Economic Monitor,The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA,World Bank Group,Washington,April 2017,p.21.
(48)Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial,“Syria’s Conflict Economy”,IMF Working Paper,June 2016,p.7.
(49)World Bank,“Syria’s Economic Outlook”,Spring 2016,http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/230181460208812912/Syria-MEM.pdf,2018-10-01.
(50)“Syria Index 2017”,https://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/syria/syria_economy.html,2018-09-30.
(51)EIU,Country Risk Service:Syria,July 2018,p.21.
(52)EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2018,p.9.
(53)EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2012,p.8;EIU,Country Report:Syria,December 2018,p.19.
(54)Wang Jin,“Will China Pay for Syria to Rebuild?”,The Diplomat,February 16,2017,http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/will-china-pay-for-syria-to-rebuild,2018-10-09.
(55)“The Syrian Refugee Crisis and Its Repercussions for the EU”,http://syrianrefugees.eu,2018-10-08.
(56)其中被联合国难民署(UNHCR)登记在册的难民有约510万,而据一些媒体估计,大约有600多万平民因为战火离开叙利亚,“Life and death in Syria”,BBC News,March 15,2016,http://www.bbc. co.uk/news/resources/idt-841ebc3a-1be9-493b-8800-2c04890e8fc9,2018-10-01。
(57)See UNHCR,“Syria Regional Refugee Response”,http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/asylum.php,2018-10-01.
(58)关于伊朗援助叙利亚政府的资金数额,学术界仍存在争议,See Eli Lake,“Iran Spends Billions to Prop Up Assad”,Bloomberg,June 9,2015,https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-06-09/iran-spends-billions-to-prop-up-assad,2018-09-29。
(59)包括来自于黎巴嫩的“真主党”,来自于阿富汗什叶派武装人员组建的“法蒂玛旅”(Liwa Fatemiyoun),来自伊拉克什叶派的“萨义德烈士营”( Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada)和“圣者联盟”(Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq)等。
(60)“Syrian PM Says Iran Coordinated Its Ballistic Missile Strikes”,The Washington Post, October 2,2018,https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/middle_east/syria-fm-says-iran-coordinated-its-ballistic-missile-strikes/2018/10/02/ff2d78cc-c62d-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?noredirect=on,2018-10-02.
(61)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages997,2018-10-10。
(62)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站: http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages1002,2018-06-24。
(63)“ISIS,Al-Qaeda Fighters May Scatter to Turkey”,Ahval,April 5,2018,https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-syria/isis-al-qaeda-fighters-may-scatter-turkey-analysis,2018-10-01.
(64)比如,沙特在2018年8月表示,愿意出资1亿美元,在美国的协调下组建新的叙利亚反对派武装。“Saudi Arabia to Contribute $100 Million to US-Backed Efforts in Syria”,Wall Street Journal,August 17,2018,https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-to-contribute-100-million-to-u-s-backed-efforts-in-syria-1534469569,2018-10-10.
(65)王晋:《想说离开不容易:特朗普想撤离叙利亚面临国内和盟友的压力》,2018年4月2日,http://www.thepaper.cn/baidu.jsp?contid=2055119,2018-10-11。
(66)“US Sends More Forces to Syria’s At-Tanf as Russia Prepares to Attack Border Area”,Alwaght,September 9,2018,http://alwaght.com/en/News/139276/US-Sends-More-Forces-to-Syria%E2%80%99s-At-Tanf-as-Russia-Prepares-to-Attack-Border-Area,2018-10-01.
(67)《总统阁下在外事与移民事务部会议上的演讲》(阿拉伯文),载叙利亚外事与移民事务部网站:http://www.mofa.gov.sy/ar/pages903,2018-10-10。
(68)《巴沙尔总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访时称:任何宪法改革都应服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》。
(69)同上文。
(70)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》。
(71)同上文。
(72)关于叙利亚的“威权”政治特征,参见王新刚、马帅:《哈菲兹·阿萨德时期叙利亚政治体制解析》,载《西亚非洲》2015年第5期,第65～80页。
(73)“English Translation of the Syrian Constitution”,Qordoba,February 15,2012,https://www. scribd.com/doc/81771718/Qordoba-Translation-of-the-Syrian-Constitution-Modifications-15-2-2012,2018-09-30.
(74)《阿萨德总统接受俄罗斯国家电视台采访:任何宪法改革都应当服务于叙利亚人民;俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在有利于地区平衡和打击恐怖主义》。
(75)“The Syrian National Council”,Carnegie Middle East Center,http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/48334 lang=en,2018-10-04.
(76)“Syria Opposition Meeting in Riyadh Sees No Role for Assad in Transition”,Reuters,November 23,2017,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-opposition/syrias-assad-should-leave-before-start-of-transition-opposition-idUSKBN1DN1BB?il=0,2018-10-04.
(77)Eva Savelsberg and Jordi Tejel,“The Syrian Kurds in Transition to Somewhere”,in Michael Gunter eds.,Out of Nowhere:The Kurds of Syria in Peace and Warm,London:Hurst,2013,p.212.
(78)“Russia Clarifies Key Goals of Sochi Congress for Syrian Opposition”,TASS,January 23,2018,http://tass.com/politics/986376,2018-10-07.
(79)“Syrian Constitutional Reform Tops Agenda on First Day of Sochi Talks”,PressTV,July 30,2018,https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/07/30/569740/Russia-Syrian-constitutional-reform-tops-agenda-on-Sochi-talks,2018-10-01.
(80)《副总理兼外长瓦利德·穆阿利姆强调叙利亚将会解放被恐怖分子和外国窃取的每一寸国土》。
(81)王新刚、王晋:《新一轮和谈破裂,叙利亚问题不好解决》,载《新京报》2017年12月18日。
(82)王晋:《参与叙利亚重建前,有必要了解下当地的经济社会现实》,载观察者网站:https://www.guancha.cn/WangJin/2017_07_19_418900.shtml,2018-10-08。
(83)李世峻、马晓霖:《“一带一路”对接叙利亚战后重建:时势评估与前景展望》,载《阿拉伯世界研究》2018年第2期,第88页。
(84)王晋:《叙利亚和平进程的中国角色》,载《环球时报》2018年2月6日。