农户储粮行为关键影响因素的作用路径分析——基于结构方程模型的实证
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摘要
从行为主体特征、储备对象特征、粮食市场因素和政府政策因素等方面着手,利用结构方程模型分析关键影响因素对农户储粮行为的直接和间接作用,并识别出关键影响因素对农户储粮行为的作用路径和作用程度。研究表明:行为主体特征、储备对象特征、粮食市场因素和政府政策因素均对农户储粮行为有显著的直接影响,其中粮食市场因素和政府政策因素还通过行为主体特征和储备对象特征对农户储粮行为产生显著的间接影响,总效应大小分别为0.360,0.263,-0.331和0.226。根据研究结果,从行为主体层面提出全面提升农户储粮意识和分类引导农户储粮行为、从储备对象层面提出支持农户粮食生产行为和探索农户储粮新型模式、从粮食市场层面提出发挥市场价格引导作用和保障粮食流通渠道顺畅、从政府政策层面提出完善粮食生产补贴政策和建立储粮补贴长效机制等对策措施和政策建议,以促进农户积极储粮和引导农户科学储粮。
Starting from the behavior agent characteristics,storage object characteristics,grain market factors,and government policy factors,the direct and indirect actions of the key factors on farmers' grain storage behavior were analyzed by using the structural equation model,and the acting path of the key factors of farmers' grain storage behavior were found out.The results show that behavior agent characteristics,storage object characteristics,grain market factors,and government policy factors all have a significant direct action on farmers' grain storage behavior;grain market factors and government policy factors both have a significant indirect action on farmers' grain storage behavior through behavior agent characteristics and storage object characteristics,the total effect being 0.360,0.263,-0.331 and 0.226.According to the results,countermeasures and policies were put forward to promote and guide farmers to store grains actively and scientifically,which include the following aspects:comprehensively raising farmers' grain storage consciousness,guiding farmers' grain storage behavior respectively,supporting farmers' grain production behavior,exploring new grain storage modes for farmers,enhancing the guidance role of market price,ensuring grain circulation channel smoothly,improving grain production subsidies policy,and building a long-term mechanism of grain storage subsidies.
Starting from the behavior agent characteristics,storage object characteristics,grain market factors,and government policy factors,the direct and indirect actions of the key factors on farmers' grain storage behavior were analyzed by using the structural equation model,and the acting path of the key factors of farmers' grain storage behavior were found out.The results show that behavior agent characteristics,storage object characteristics,grain market factors,and government policy factors all have a significant direct action on farmers' grain storage behavior;grain market factors and government policy factors both have a significant indirect action on farmers' grain storage behavior through behavior agent characteristics and storage object characteristics,the total effect being 0.360,0.263,-0.331 and 0.226.According to the results,countermeasures and policies were put forward to promote and guide farmers to store grains actively and scientifically,which include the following aspects:comprehensively raising farmers' grain storage consciousness,guiding farmers' grain storage behavior respectively,supporting farmers' grain production behavior,exploring new grain storage modes for farmers,enhancing the guidance role of market price,ensuring grain circulation channel smoothly,improving grain production subsidies policy,and building a long-term mechanism of grain storage subsidies.
引文
[1]杨美玲.渭南农户储粮的调查与分析[J].中国粮食经济,2018(4):45-47.
[2]余志刚,郭翔宇.主产区农户储粮行为分析--基于黑龙江省409个农户的调查[J].农业技术经济,2015(8):35-42.
[3]THAMAGA-CHITJA J M,HENDRIKS S L,ORTMANN G F,et al.Impact of maize storage on rural household food security in Northern Kwazulu-Natal[J].Journal of Family Ecology and Consumer Sciences,2004(32):8-15.
[4]樊琦,胡建国.江汉平原地区农户储粮行为与收益研究--以湖北省江陵县为例[J].粮食科技与经济,2017,42(2):16-23.
[5]吕辛.城镇化背景下农户储粮意愿及影响因素研究--基于江苏中部地区农村的调查[J].重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版),2015(6):48-52.
[6]杨月锋,徐学荣.福建省农户储粮行为研究[J].福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,20(2):12-16.
[7]闻海燕.市场化条件下粮食主销区的农户粮食储备与粮食安全[J].粮食问题研究,2004(1):32-34.
[8]BUSCHENA D,SMITH V,DI H.Policy reform and farmers’wheat allocation in rural China:A case study[J].The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2005(49):143-158.
[9]张瑞娟,武拉平,崔登峰.从农户粮食供需均衡看农户储粮影响因素[J].石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,27(2):86-92.
[10]杨月锋,徐学荣.主销区农户储粮行为的影响因素分析--基于福建的调查数据[J].福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,18(5):39-44.
[11]AUBERT C.Food security and consumption patterns in China:The grain problem[J].China Perspectives,2008(2):5-23.
[12]易丹辉.结构方程模型方法与应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[13]侯杰泰,温忠麟,成子娟.结构方程模型及其应用[M].北京:社会科学出版社,2004.
[14]杨月锋,徐学荣.关于农户储粮行为的理论解析[J].贵州社会科学,2015(10):149-153.
[15]武翔宇.农户粮食储备行为研究[J].农业技术经济,2007(5):74-79.
[16]黄利会,王雅鹏.中部粮食主产区农户储粮行为的影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2009(11):65-67.
[17]柯炳生.中国农户粮食储备及其对市场的影响[J].中国软科学,1997(5):22-26.
[18]吕新业,刘华.农户粮食储备规模及行为影响因素分析--基于四省不同粮食品种的调查[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):22-30.
[19]武拉平,刘李峰.中国农户粮食储备行为及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业经济评论,2005,3(4):390-397.
[20]胡小平.粮食价格与粮食储备的宏观调控[J].经济研究,1999(2):49-55.
[21]张改清.粮食最低收购价政策下农户储售粮行为响应及其收入效应[J].农业经济问题,2014(7):86-93.
[22]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.
[23]邱皓政,林碧芳.结构方程模型的原理与应用[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2009.
[24]黄芳铭.结构方程模式:理论与应用[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2005.
[2]余志刚,郭翔宇.主产区农户储粮行为分析--基于黑龙江省409个农户的调查[J].农业技术经济,2015(8):35-42.
[3]THAMAGA-CHITJA J M,HENDRIKS S L,ORTMANN G F,et al.Impact of maize storage on rural household food security in Northern Kwazulu-Natal[J].Journal of Family Ecology and Consumer Sciences,2004(32):8-15.
[4]樊琦,胡建国.江汉平原地区农户储粮行为与收益研究--以湖北省江陵县为例[J].粮食科技与经济,2017,42(2):16-23.
[5]吕辛.城镇化背景下农户储粮意愿及影响因素研究--基于江苏中部地区农村的调查[J].重庆交通大学学报(社会科学版),2015(6):48-52.
[6]杨月锋,徐学荣.福建省农户储粮行为研究[J].福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,20(2):12-16.
[7]闻海燕.市场化条件下粮食主销区的农户粮食储备与粮食安全[J].粮食问题研究,2004(1):32-34.
[8]BUSCHENA D,SMITH V,DI H.Policy reform and farmers’wheat allocation in rural China:A case study[J].The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2005(49):143-158.
[9]张瑞娟,武拉平,崔登峰.从农户粮食供需均衡看农户储粮影响因素[J].石河子大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2013,27(2):86-92.
[10]杨月锋,徐学荣.主销区农户储粮行为的影响因素分析--基于福建的调查数据[J].福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015,18(5):39-44.
[11]AUBERT C.Food security and consumption patterns in China:The grain problem[J].China Perspectives,2008(2):5-23.
[12]易丹辉.结构方程模型方法与应用[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[13]侯杰泰,温忠麟,成子娟.结构方程模型及其应用[M].北京:社会科学出版社,2004.
[14]杨月锋,徐学荣.关于农户储粮行为的理论解析[J].贵州社会科学,2015(10):149-153.
[15]武翔宇.农户粮食储备行为研究[J].农业技术经济,2007(5):74-79.
[16]黄利会,王雅鹏.中部粮食主产区农户储粮行为的影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2009(11):65-67.
[17]柯炳生.中国农户粮食储备及其对市场的影响[J].中国软科学,1997(5):22-26.
[18]吕新业,刘华.农户粮食储备规模及行为影响因素分析--基于四省不同粮食品种的调查[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):22-30.
[19]武拉平,刘李峰.中国农户粮食储备行为及其影响因素分析[J].中国农业经济评论,2005,3(4):390-397.
[20]胡小平.粮食价格与粮食储备的宏观调控[J].经济研究,1999(2):49-55.
[21]张改清.粮食最低收购价政策下农户储售粮行为响应及其收入效应[J].农业经济问题,2014(7):86-93.
[22]薛薇.SPSS统计分析方法及应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.
[23]邱皓政,林碧芳.结构方程模型的原理与应用[M].北京:中国轻工业出版社,2009.
[24]黄芳铭.结构方程模式:理论与应用[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2005.