精河6.6级地震前精河水管仪、伸缩仪异常特征分析
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摘要
2017年8月9日精河发生6.6级地震。本文首先利用相关、回归分析研究了气温对水管仪、伸缩仪的影响,并进行了干扰的定量剔除;其次,通过回归残差分析研究地震前水管仪、伸缩仪的异常特征,认为精河6.6级地震前存在3项异常:(1)2016年5月22日起,水管仪NS分量S倾幅度0.53";(2)2017年3月24日起,EW分量E倾幅度0.28";(3)2016年9月10日起,伸缩仪NS分量出现压缩现象。
The M_S 6.6 earthquake occurred on August 9, 2017 in Jinghe. In order to investigate the anomaly characteristics from water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe station, we analyzed the effects of air temperature on water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe by using the correlation and regression analysis then rejected the interference of air temperature quantitatively. The analysis of regression residuals shows that there existed three abnormalities before the earthquake:(1) S tilt amplitude 0.53 " in NS component from water tube tiltmeter since May 22, 2016; EW component(2) tilt amplitude 0.28" from March 24, 2017;(3)From September 10, 2016, the NS component of the telescopic instrument appears to be compressed.
The M_S 6.6 earthquake occurred on August 9, 2017 in Jinghe. In order to investigate the anomaly characteristics from water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe station, we analyzed the effects of air temperature on water tube tiltmeter and extensometer in Jinghe by using the correlation and regression analysis then rejected the interference of air temperature quantitatively. The analysis of regression residuals shows that there existed three abnormalities before the earthquake:(1) S tilt amplitude 0.53 " in NS component from water tube tiltmeter since May 22, 2016; EW component(2) tilt amplitude 0.28" from March 24, 2017;(3)From September 10, 2016, the NS component of the telescopic instrument appears to be compressed.
引文
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王梅,李峰,孔向阳等,2004.数字化形变观测干扰识别.大地测量与地球动力学,24(1):94—98.
吴中海,赵根模,2013.地震预报现状及相关问题综述.地质通报,32(10):1493—1512.
邢喜民,张涛,2015.分段回归在剔除精河、库尔勒水平摆气象因素影响的探索.地震工程学报,37(2):623 —628.
邢喜民,孙吉泽,张治广,2016.乌什台钻孔体应变年频段及日频段信息的影响因素探索,大地测量与地球动力学,36(5):456—459.
杨龙,2015.钢筋沥青隔震装置的位移控制研究及工程应用.长沙:湖南大学.
于桂春,王在华,刘辉等,2011.阿合奇地震台地倾斜观测与气温变化关系.地震地磁观测与研究,32(6):143 —149.
中国地震局监测预报司,2008.地形变测量.北京:地震出版社.
朱令人,2002.新疆通志-第十一卷-地震志.乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.
Berger J., 1975. A note on thermoelastic strains and tilts. Journal of Geophysical Research, 80(2):274—277
车用太,鱼金子,刘成龙等,2011.判别地下水异常的干扰性与前兆性的原则及其应用实例.地震学报,33(6):800—808.
王梅,李峰,孔向阳等,2004.数字化形变观测干扰识别.大地测量与地球动力学,24(1):94—98.
吴中海,赵根模,2013.地震预报现状及相关问题综述.地质通报,32(10):1493—1512.
邢喜民,张涛,2015.分段回归在剔除精河、库尔勒水平摆气象因素影响的探索.地震工程学报,37(2):623 —628.
邢喜民,孙吉泽,张治广,2016.乌什台钻孔体应变年频段及日频段信息的影响因素探索,大地测量与地球动力学,36(5):456—459.
杨龙,2015.钢筋沥青隔震装置的位移控制研究及工程应用.长沙:湖南大学.
于桂春,王在华,刘辉等,2011.阿合奇地震台地倾斜观测与气温变化关系.地震地磁观测与研究,32(6):143 —149.
中国地震局监测预报司,2008.地形变测量.北京:地震出版社.
朱令人,2002.新疆通志-第十一卷-地震志.乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社.
Berger J., 1975. A note on thermoelastic strains and tilts. Journal of Geophysical Research, 80(2):274—277