宁镇地区地质灾害预报模型——以镇江润州区为例
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摘要
宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型:非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。
The Nanjing-Zhenjiang area has undergone one of the most serious geological hazards in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. As a part of the Nanjing-Zhenjiang area, Runzhou District shows typical climate and geological environment characteristics. Thus, the proposed meteorological warning and forecasting model of geological hazards in this work is applicable to the whole area and can be used for reference in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Climate, environment, rainfall, especially continuous or heavy rainfall are important factors to induce geological hazards. Geological hazards in the Runzhou District are mainly related to the total rainfall during the Meiyu period, followed by the rainfall caused by typhoons during flood season, but not related to total rainfall during typhoon flood season. The equation for the prediction and warning of geological hazards should correspond to different periods. The early warning equation of non-Meiyu period should adopt the comprehensive forecast model of target day rainfall combined with the sum of precipitation of the previous five days, and that of Meiyu period should adopt the total rainfall model of Meiyu period. It is proposed that the level of meteorological forecast and early warning of geological hazards should be divided into four levels according to The National Response Plan for Public Emergencies. This model also provides reference for improving the existing meteorological warning and forecasting system of geological hazards in China.
The Nanjing-Zhenjiang area has undergone one of the most serious geological hazards in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. As a part of the Nanjing-Zhenjiang area, Runzhou District shows typical climate and geological environment characteristics. Thus, the proposed meteorological warning and forecasting model of geological hazards in this work is applicable to the whole area and can be used for reference in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Climate, environment, rainfall, especially continuous or heavy rainfall are important factors to induce geological hazards. Geological hazards in the Runzhou District are mainly related to the total rainfall during the Meiyu period, followed by the rainfall caused by typhoons during flood season, but not related to total rainfall during typhoon flood season. The equation for the prediction and warning of geological hazards should correspond to different periods. The early warning equation of non-Meiyu period should adopt the comprehensive forecast model of target day rainfall combined with the sum of precipitation of the previous five days, and that of Meiyu period should adopt the total rainfall model of Meiyu period. It is proposed that the level of meteorological forecast and early warning of geological hazards should be divided into four levels according to The National Response Plan for Public Emergencies. This model also provides reference for improving the existing meteorological warning and forecasting system of geological hazards in China.
引文
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朱兴贤,1996.江苏地质灾害及防治对策探讨[J].地质学刊,20(1):41-45.
张剑,2008.镇江地质灾害治理工程项目管理中的问题与对策探讨[J].地质学刊,32(1):64-69.
丁坚平,褚学伟,段先前,等,2017.贵州岩溶塌陷[M].北京:地质出版社.
江苏省地质矿产局,1989.宁镇山脉地质志[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社.
刘艳辉,唐灿,李铁锋,等,2009.地质灾害与降雨雨型的关系研究[J].工程地质学报,17(5):656-661.
雷志强,2011.加强地质灾害防治,构建生态城市环境[J].地质学刊,35(1):104-108.
罗小杰,2013.城市岩溶与地史滑坡研究[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社有限责任公司.
毛志伟,沈兴建,朱筱英,等,2008.镇江市斜坡地质灾害的气象条件分析及预报[J].气象科学,28(增刊):107-110.
缪世贤,黄敬军,武健强,等,2013.镇江大杨林岩溶塌陷及地裂缝灾害机理分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,33(6):679-685.
黄毅,程远金,谢金元,等,2018.地质灾害野外判别方法探讨[J].上海国土资源,39(4):140-143.
单玉香,孙国曦,陆美兰,等,2007.江苏省地质灾害气象预警系统的设计与实现[J].地质学刊,31(1):41-44.
朱兴贤,1996.江苏地质灾害及防治对策探讨[J].地质学刊,20(1):41-45.
张剑,2008.镇江地质灾害治理工程项目管理中的问题与对策探讨[J].地质学刊,32(1):64-69.