基于IPCC排放因子法估算碳足迹的京津冀生态补偿量化
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摘要
构建合理的生态补偿量化标准关系着京津冀区域的健康发展。采用IPCC排放因子法计算京津冀地区2006-2015年的碳足迹,结果表明:10 a间京津冀地区碳足迹变化趋势分为2个阶段,2006到2013呈现快速增长趋势,年增长率约为8.5%,2013年之后基本保持不变;考虑森林、草地、农用地的固碳能力的前提下,测算了京津冀地区2006-2015年的碳承载力,结果表明:2009年京津冀地区的碳承载力有明显增高,之后基本保持平稳,略有提升;为了对比不同区域内(人口和区域面积)碳赤字对生态的影响,提出了碳赤字敏感度,进而利用碳赤字敏感度构建了生态补偿因子的概念,并据此确定京津冀三区生态补偿的量化标准,结果表明:河北和北京每年都应得到天津支付的一定额度的生态补偿,其中河北2012年应获得补偿最多(161亿元),北京2013年最多(61.5亿元)。研究结果对加快建立完善的京津冀横向生态补偿机制有参考意义。
China has paid more and more attention to the construction of the ecological civilization society. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a significant ecological and economic circle, so the construction of appropriate quantitative standards for ecological compensation is closely related to the healthy development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was calculated using the emission factor method proposed by IPCC. Results showed a two-stage trend of carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during those 10 years. There was a rapid increase with annual growth rate at about 8.5% from 2006 to 2013, then it maintained in the level after 2013. The carbon footprint of Hebei province was far greater than the other two cities, and even it had the difference in magnitude. Based on carbon sequestration capacity of forest, grassland and cropland, carbon bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was estimated. The results showed that carbon bearing capacity significantly increased in 2009, and then it maintained in the level despite of a slight increase. The carbon bearing capacity of Hebei province was much stronger than that of Beijing and Tianjin, which was nearly 8 times of the sum of Beijing and Tianjin in 2015, and that was accordance with the carbon footprint trend. Hebei province had a large amount of carbon emission, but also had large carbon bearing capacity. The carbon deficit of Tianjin and Hebei was highest in 2013, with 251.6 million ton and 946.5 million ton respectively. The extreme point of carbon deficit in Beijing appeared in 2010, which reached 179.4 million ton. Horizontal comparison found that carbon budget of Hebei is much higher than the others, about 4 times of Tianjin and 5 times of Beijing in 2013, due to the huge energy consumption. By introducing the concept of sensitivity of carbon deficit, its ecological effects in different regions with various populations and areas were compared. Ecological compensation factors were further proposed to determine quantitative standards of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Results showed that Hebei and Beijing belong to the compensation receptor absolutely among these 3 regions, Tianjin was the absolute subject of compensation, Tianjin should pay compensation to the others at 12.6-15.2 billion yuan before 2009, and then surged to 20 billion yuan after 2010 with the growth rate of 42.9%. Hebei was obtained ecological compensation from Tianjin city in 2006-2015, the amount was increased from 11.3 billion yuan to 15.5 billion yuan, of which the extreme point appeared in 2012(16.1 billion yuan). Beijing's deserved compensation from Tianjin in 2006-2015 was no more than 6.2 billion yuan, of which the extreme point occurred in 2008, only 1 billion 230 million yuan. A particular quantifiable evaluation model is put forward in this study, and this research could provide results to support the establishment and improvement of apropriate mechanism of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
China has paid more and more attention to the construction of the ecological civilization society. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a significant ecological and economic circle, so the construction of appropriate quantitative standards for ecological compensation is closely related to the healthy development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was calculated using the emission factor method proposed by IPCC. Results showed a two-stage trend of carbon footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during those 10 years. There was a rapid increase with annual growth rate at about 8.5% from 2006 to 2013, then it maintained in the level after 2013. The carbon footprint of Hebei province was far greater than the other two cities, and even it had the difference in magnitude. Based on carbon sequestration capacity of forest, grassland and cropland, carbon bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2006 to 2015 was estimated. The results showed that carbon bearing capacity significantly increased in 2009, and then it maintained in the level despite of a slight increase. The carbon bearing capacity of Hebei province was much stronger than that of Beijing and Tianjin, which was nearly 8 times of the sum of Beijing and Tianjin in 2015, and that was accordance with the carbon footprint trend. Hebei province had a large amount of carbon emission, but also had large carbon bearing capacity. The carbon deficit of Tianjin and Hebei was highest in 2013, with 251.6 million ton and 946.5 million ton respectively. The extreme point of carbon deficit in Beijing appeared in 2010, which reached 179.4 million ton. Horizontal comparison found that carbon budget of Hebei is much higher than the others, about 4 times of Tianjin and 5 times of Beijing in 2013, due to the huge energy consumption. By introducing the concept of sensitivity of carbon deficit, its ecological effects in different regions with various populations and areas were compared. Ecological compensation factors were further proposed to determine quantitative standards of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Results showed that Hebei and Beijing belong to the compensation receptor absolutely among these 3 regions, Tianjin was the absolute subject of compensation, Tianjin should pay compensation to the others at 12.6-15.2 billion yuan before 2009, and then surged to 20 billion yuan after 2010 with the growth rate of 42.9%. Hebei was obtained ecological compensation from Tianjin city in 2006-2015, the amount was increased from 11.3 billion yuan to 15.5 billion yuan, of which the extreme point appeared in 2012(16.1 billion yuan). Beijing's deserved compensation from Tianjin in 2006-2015 was no more than 6.2 billion yuan, of which the extreme point occurred in 2008, only 1 billion 230 million yuan. A particular quantifiable evaluation model is put forward in this study, and this research could provide results to support the establishment and improvement of apropriate mechanism of ecological compensation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
引文
[1]十八大报告辅导读本[M].北京:人民出版社,2012:36.
[2]付意成,高婷,闫丽娟,等.基于能值分析的永定河流域农业生态补偿标准[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):209-217.Fu Yicheng,Gao Ting,Yan Lijuan,et al.Agro-ecological compensation standard based on emergy analysis in Yongding River basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(1):209-217.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]李晓光,苗鸿,郑华,等.生态补偿标准确定的主要方法及其应用[J].生态学报,2009(8):4431-4440.Li Xiaoguang,Miao Hong,Zheng Hua,et al.Main methods for setting ecological compensation standard and their application[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2009(8):4431-4440.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]刘玉卿,徐中民,南卓铜.基于SWAT模型和最小数据法的黑河流域上游生态补偿研究[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(10):124-130.Liu Yuqing,Xu Zhongmin,Nan Zhuotong.Study on ecological compensation in upper stream of Heihe river basin based on SWAT model and minimum-data approach[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(10):124-130.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]汪运波,肖建红.基于生态足迹成分法的海岛型旅游目的地生态补偿标准研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(8):149-155Wang Yunbo,Xiao Jianhong.Research on ecological compensation standard of island tourist destination based on component method of ecological footprint[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(8):149-155.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]段铸,刘艳,孙晓然.京津冀横向生态补偿机制的财政思考[J].生态经济,2017(6):146-150.Duan Zhu,Liu Yan,Sun Xiaoran.The public financial thinking of horizontal ecological compensation mechanism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Ecological Economy,2017(6):146-150.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]胡小飞,邹妍,傅春.基于碳足迹的江西生态补偿标准时空格局[J].应用生态学报,2017(2):493-499.Hu Xiaofei,Zou Yan,Fu Chun.Spatial and temporal patterns of the ecological compensation criterion in Jiangxi Province,China based on carbon footprint[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2017(2):493-499.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]肖建红,陈绍金,于庆东,等.基于生态足迹思想的皂市水利枢纽工程生态补偿标准研究[J].生态学报,2011,31(22):6696-6707.Xiao Jianhong,Chen Shaojin,Yu Qingdong,et al.A study on ecological compensation standard for zaoshi water conservancy project based on the idea of ecological footprint[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(22):6696-6707.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]付意成,阮本清,张春玲.永定河流域生态补偿标准研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2011,9(4):283-291.Fu Yicheng,Ruan Benqing,Zhang Chunling.Research on the ecological compensation standard of Yongding River Basin[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2011,9(4):283-291.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]刘春腊,刘卫东,陆大道.1987-2012年中国生态补偿研究进展及趋势[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(12):1780-1792.Liu Chunla,Liu Weidong,Lu Dadao.Research progress and trend of ecological compensation in China in the past 1987-2012 years[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(12):1780-1792.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]欧阳志云,郑华,岳平.建立我国生态补偿机制的思路与措施[J].生态学报,2013(3):686-692.Ouyang Zhiyun,Zheng Hua,Yue Ping.Establishment of ecological compensation mechanisms in China:Perspectives and strategies[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2013(3):686-692.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]李文华,刘某承.关于中国生态补偿机制建设的几点思考[J].资源科学,2010,32(5):791-796.Li Wenhua,Liu Moucheng.Several strategic thoughts on China’s eco-compensation mechanism[J].Resources Science,2010,32(5):791-796.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]杨光梅,闵庆文,李文华,等.我国生态补偿研究中的科学问题[J].生态学报,2007(10):4289-4300.Yang Guangmei,Min Qingwen,Li Wenhua,et al.Scientific issues of ecological compensation research in China[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2007(10):4289-4300.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]秦艳红,康慕谊.国内外生态补偿现状及其完善措施[J].自然资源学报,2007(4):557-567.Qin Yanhong,Kang Muyi.A review of ecological compensation and its improvement measures[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007(4):557-567.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]白伟荣,王震,吕佳.碳足迹核算的国际标准概述与解析[J].生态学报,2014(24):7486-7493.Bai Weirong,Wang Zhen,Lu Jia.Summary and analysis of international standards on carbon footprint accounting[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2014(24):7486-7493.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory[R].IPCC,2006.
[17]韩召迎,孟亚利,刘丽平,等.基于区域土地利用变化的能源碳足迹改进算法及应用[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(9):190-195.Han Zhaoying,Meng Yali,Liu Liping,et al.Modified method of energy carbon footprint and application based on regional land use change[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(9):190-195.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]柴立龙,马承伟,刘明池,等.日光温室地源热泵供暖碳足迹的生命周期分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(8):149-155.Chai Lilong,Ma Chengwei,Liu Mingchi,et al.Carbon footprint of ground source heat pump system in heating solar greenhouse based on life cycle assessment[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2014,30(8):149-155.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]卢俊宇,黄贤金,陈逸,等.基于能源消费的中国省级区域碳足迹时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2013,32(2):326-336.Lu Junyu,Huang Xianjin,Chen Yi,et al.Spatiotemporal changes of carbon footprint based on energy consumption in China[J].Geography Research,2013,32(2):326-336.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008(4):1729-1735.Xie Hongyu,Chen Xiansheng,Lin Kairong,et al.The ecological footprint analysis of fossil energy and electricity[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2008(4):1729-1735.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]Wang X K,Feng Z W,Ouyang Z Y.Vegetation carbon storage and density of forest ecosystem in China[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,12(1):13-16.
[22]Zhang X,Xu X,Liu Y,et al.Global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in rice agriculture driven by high yields and nitrogen use efficiency[J].Biogeosciences,2016(13):2701-2714.
[23]Boguski T K.Life cycle carbon footprint of the national geographic magazine[J].International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment,2010,15(7):635-643.
[24]Mancini M S,Galli A,Niccolucci V,et al.Ecological footprint:Refining the carbon footprint calculation[J].Eco-logical Indicators,2016,61:390-403.
[25]Hertwich E G,Peters G P.Carbon footprint of nations:Aglobal,trade-linked analysis[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2009,43(16):6414-6420.
[26]Zhang X,Fan C,Ma Y,et al.Two approaches for net ecosystem carbon budgets and soil carbon sequestration in a rice-wheat rotation system in China[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2014,100:301-313.
[27]山东农业科学院主编.中国玉米栽培学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,1986.
[28]辽宁农业科学院主编.中国高粱栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1988.
[29]山西农业科学院主编.中国谷子栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1987.
[30]中国农业百科全书总编辑委员会.中国农业百科全书:农作物卷[M].北京:农业出版社,1991.
[2]付意成,高婷,闫丽娟,等.基于能值分析的永定河流域农业生态补偿标准[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(1):209-217.Fu Yicheng,Gao Ting,Yan Lijuan,et al.Agro-ecological compensation standard based on emergy analysis in Yongding River basin[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2013,29(1):209-217.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3]李晓光,苗鸿,郑华,等.生态补偿标准确定的主要方法及其应用[J].生态学报,2009(8):4431-4440.Li Xiaoguang,Miao Hong,Zheng Hua,et al.Main methods for setting ecological compensation standard and their application[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2009(8):4431-4440.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4]刘玉卿,徐中民,南卓铜.基于SWAT模型和最小数据法的黑河流域上游生态补偿研究[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(10):124-130.Liu Yuqing,Xu Zhongmin,Nan Zhuotong.Study on ecological compensation in upper stream of Heihe river basin based on SWAT model and minimum-data approach[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(10):124-130.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]汪运波,肖建红.基于生态足迹成分法的海岛型旅游目的地生态补偿标准研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2014,24(8):149-155Wang Yunbo,Xiao Jianhong.Research on ecological compensation standard of island tourist destination based on component method of ecological footprint[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(8):149-155.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]段铸,刘艳,孙晓然.京津冀横向生态补偿机制的财政思考[J].生态经济,2017(6):146-150.Duan Zhu,Liu Yan,Sun Xiaoran.The public financial thinking of horizontal ecological compensation mechanism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].Ecological Economy,2017(6):146-150.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]胡小飞,邹妍,傅春.基于碳足迹的江西生态补偿标准时空格局[J].应用生态学报,2017(2):493-499.Hu Xiaofei,Zou Yan,Fu Chun.Spatial and temporal patterns of the ecological compensation criterion in Jiangxi Province,China based on carbon footprint[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2017(2):493-499.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]肖建红,陈绍金,于庆东,等.基于生态足迹思想的皂市水利枢纽工程生态补偿标准研究[J].生态学报,2011,31(22):6696-6707.Xiao Jianhong,Chen Shaojin,Yu Qingdong,et al.A study on ecological compensation standard for zaoshi water conservancy project based on the idea of ecological footprint[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(22):6696-6707.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]付意成,阮本清,张春玲.永定河流域生态补偿标准研究[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2011,9(4):283-291.Fu Yicheng,Ruan Benqing,Zhang Chunling.Research on the ecological compensation standard of Yongding River Basin[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2011,9(4):283-291.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]刘春腊,刘卫东,陆大道.1987-2012年中国生态补偿研究进展及趋势[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(12):1780-1792.Liu Chunla,Liu Weidong,Lu Dadao.Research progress and trend of ecological compensation in China in the past 1987-2012 years[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(12):1780-1792.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]欧阳志云,郑华,岳平.建立我国生态补偿机制的思路与措施[J].生态学报,2013(3):686-692.Ouyang Zhiyun,Zheng Hua,Yue Ping.Establishment of ecological compensation mechanisms in China:Perspectives and strategies[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2013(3):686-692.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]李文华,刘某承.关于中国生态补偿机制建设的几点思考[J].资源科学,2010,32(5):791-796.Li Wenhua,Liu Moucheng.Several strategic thoughts on China’s eco-compensation mechanism[J].Resources Science,2010,32(5):791-796.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]杨光梅,闵庆文,李文华,等.我国生态补偿研究中的科学问题[J].生态学报,2007(10):4289-4300.Yang Guangmei,Min Qingwen,Li Wenhua,et al.Scientific issues of ecological compensation research in China[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2007(10):4289-4300.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]秦艳红,康慕谊.国内外生态补偿现状及其完善措施[J].自然资源学报,2007(4):557-567.Qin Yanhong,Kang Muyi.A review of ecological compensation and its improvement measures[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007(4):557-567.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]白伟荣,王震,吕佳.碳足迹核算的国际标准概述与解析[J].生态学报,2014(24):7486-7493.Bai Weirong,Wang Zhen,Lu Jia.Summary and analysis of international standards on carbon footprint accounting[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2014(24):7486-7493.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory[R].IPCC,2006.
[17]韩召迎,孟亚利,刘丽平,等.基于区域土地利用变化的能源碳足迹改进算法及应用[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(9):190-195.Han Zhaoying,Meng Yali,Liu Liping,et al.Modified method of energy carbon footprint and application based on regional land use change[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(9):190-195.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]柴立龙,马承伟,刘明池,等.日光温室地源热泵供暖碳足迹的生命周期分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(8):149-155.Chai Lilong,Ma Chengwei,Liu Mingchi,et al.Carbon footprint of ground source heat pump system in heating solar greenhouse based on life cycle assessment[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2014,30(8):149-155.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]卢俊宇,黄贤金,陈逸,等.基于能源消费的中国省级区域碳足迹时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2013,32(2):326-336.Lu Junyu,Huang Xianjin,Chen Yi,et al.Spatiotemporal changes of carbon footprint based on energy consumption in China[J].Geography Research,2013,32(2):326-336.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]谢鸿宇,陈贤生,林凯荣,等.基于碳循环的化石能源及电力生态足迹[J].生态学报,2008(4):1729-1735.Xie Hongyu,Chen Xiansheng,Lin Kairong,et al.The ecological footprint analysis of fossil energy and electricity[J].Acta Ecologic Sinica,2008(4):1729-1735.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]Wang X K,Feng Z W,Ouyang Z Y.Vegetation carbon storage and density of forest ecosystem in China[J].Journal of Applied Ecology,2001,12(1):13-16.
[22]Zhang X,Xu X,Liu Y,et al.Global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity in rice agriculture driven by high yields and nitrogen use efficiency[J].Biogeosciences,2016(13):2701-2714.
[23]Boguski T K.Life cycle carbon footprint of the national geographic magazine[J].International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment,2010,15(7):635-643.
[24]Mancini M S,Galli A,Niccolucci V,et al.Ecological footprint:Refining the carbon footprint calculation[J].Eco-logical Indicators,2016,61:390-403.
[25]Hertwich E G,Peters G P.Carbon footprint of nations:Aglobal,trade-linked analysis[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2009,43(16):6414-6420.
[26]Zhang X,Fan C,Ma Y,et al.Two approaches for net ecosystem carbon budgets and soil carbon sequestration in a rice-wheat rotation system in China[J].Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems,2014,100:301-313.
[27]山东农业科学院主编.中国玉米栽培学[M].上海:上海科技出版社,1986.
[28]辽宁农业科学院主编.中国高粱栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1988.
[29]山西农业科学院主编.中国谷子栽培学[M].北京:农业出版社,1987.
[30]中国农业百科全书总编辑委员会.中国农业百科全书:农作物卷[M].北京:农业出版社,1991.