京津冀地区黄标车政策的总量减排效益评估
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摘要
为评估黄标车提前淘汰补贴和禁行政策的实施效果,并对这两种政策进行比较,在梳理京津冀地区相关政策措施的基础上,采用排放因子法评估其总量减排效益.结果表明:(1)京津冀地区黄标车淘汰政策有较好的减排效益,政策实施以来CO、HC、NO_x、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)累计减排量分别为500.32、39.79、31.82、0.96、1.06万t.(2)黄标车政策减排效益最突出的污染物为CO、HC、NO_x,为大气污染总量减排作出较大贡献.(3)小型载客与轻型载货汽油车是CO与HC的减排主体,重型载货柴油车是NO_x和颗粒物的主要减排贡献车型.(4)京津冀13个城市,道路密集的城区减排更明显.北京市、天津市、石家庄市CO、HC减排较其他城市更显著,天津市、石家庄市、唐山市、邯郸市NO_x和颗粒物减排更显著.(5)提前淘汰补贴和禁行两个政策相比,前者减排效益具有时间延续性,在政策实施后几年效益仍较明显;后者在政策实施前期减排效益明显,随时间而衰减.各地在制定黄标车与老旧机动车政策时,建议前期加强禁行政策、后期加强淘汰补贴政策执行力度.
In order to evaluate policy implementation for yellow-label vehicles(namely,those that fail to meet the Chinese No.1 standard for exhaust emissions),and to compare the policy of an early elimination subsidy with traffic restrictions of these vehicles,the emission factor method was adopted to calculate the emission reduction resulting from the two policies in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The results showed that:(1) The policies led to good emission reductions for the Jing-jin-ji Region.Since the implementation of the policies,the cumulative reductions of CO,HC,NO_x,PM_(2.5),and PM_(10) have been 5 003.2 kt,397.9 kt,318.2 kt,9.6 kt,and 10.6 kt,respectively.(2) The pollutants reduced most prominently were CO,HC,and NO_x,which contributed greatly to the emission reductions and air pollution control.(3) The main motorcycle types for the CO and HC emission reductions were small gasoline-powered passenger vehicles and light duty gasoline-powered vehicles.Heavy duty diesel cars contributed the most to the emission reduction of NO_xand particulate matters.(4) The emission reductions for CO,HC,and NO_xwere greater in densely populated urban areas in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The emission reductions of CO and HC in Beijing,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang were more obvious than in other cities,and the emission reductions of NO_xand particulate matters were more obvious in Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan,and Handan.(5) Comparing the two policies of an early elimination subsidy and traffic restriction,the emission reduction of the former policy is continuous for a few years,and the effectiveness of reduction is significant in several years.However,the effectiveness of the latter policy decreases with time.
In order to evaluate policy implementation for yellow-label vehicles(namely,those that fail to meet the Chinese No.1 standard for exhaust emissions),and to compare the policy of an early elimination subsidy with traffic restrictions of these vehicles,the emission factor method was adopted to calculate the emission reduction resulting from the two policies in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The results showed that:(1) The policies led to good emission reductions for the Jing-jin-ji Region.Since the implementation of the policies,the cumulative reductions of CO,HC,NO_x,PM_(2.5),and PM_(10) have been 5 003.2 kt,397.9 kt,318.2 kt,9.6 kt,and 10.6 kt,respectively.(2) The pollutants reduced most prominently were CO,HC,and NO_x,which contributed greatly to the emission reductions and air pollution control.(3) The main motorcycle types for the CO and HC emission reductions were small gasoline-powered passenger vehicles and light duty gasoline-powered vehicles.Heavy duty diesel cars contributed the most to the emission reduction of NO_xand particulate matters.(4) The emission reductions for CO,HC,and NO_xwere greater in densely populated urban areas in the Jing-jin-ji Region.The emission reductions of CO and HC in Beijing,Tianjin,and Shijiazhuang were more obvious than in other cities,and the emission reductions of NO_xand particulate matters were more obvious in Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Tangshan,and Handan.(5) Comparing the two policies of an early elimination subsidy and traffic restriction,the emission reduction of the former policy is continuous for a few years,and the effectiveness of reduction is significant in several years.However,the effectiveness of the latter policy decreases with time.
引文
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[2]Buckeridge D L,Glazier R,Harvey B J,et al.Effect of motor vehicle emissions on respiratory health in an urban area[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2002,110(3):293-300.
[3]Mc Donald J D,Eide I,Seagrave J,et al.Relationship between composition and toxicity of motor vehicle emission samples[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2004,112(15):1527-1538.
[4]孙世达,姜巍,高卫东.青岛市机动车排放清单与空间分布特征[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(1):49-59.Sun S D,Jiang W,Gao W D.Vehicle emission inventory and spatial distribution in Qingdao[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(1):49-59.
[5]中华人民共和国环境保护部.2015年中国环境统计年报[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,2016.62-63.
[6]中华人民共和国环境保护部.2016年中国机动车环境管理年报[R].北京:中华人民共和国环境保护部,2016.5-6.
[7]EPA.Final plan for periodic retrospective reviews of existing regulations[R].Washington,DC:Office of Management and Budget,2000.1-9.
[8]董战峰,王军锋,璩爱玉,等.OECD国家环境政策费用效益分析实践经验及启示[J].环境保护,2017,45(2):93-98.Dong Z F,Wang J F,Qu A Y,et al.Implication of the updated cost-benefit analysis practice of environmental policy in OECD membership Countries[J].Environmental Protection,2017,45(2):93-98.
[9]中国科学院“大气灰霾追因与控制”专项总体组.“大气国十条”实施以来京津冀PM2.5控制效果评估报告[J].中国科学院院刊,2015,30(5):668-678.
[10]刘俊,安兴琴,朱彤,等.京津冀及周边减排对北京市PM2.5浓度下降评估研究[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(11):2726-2733.Liu J,An X Q,Zhu T,et al.Evaluation of PM2.5decrease in Beijing after emission restrictions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(11):2726-2733.
[11]李沈鑫,邹滨,刘兴权,等.2013-2015年中国PM2.5污染状况时空变化[J].环境科学研究,2017,30(5):678-687.Li S X,Zou B,Liu X Q,et al.Pollution status and spatialtemporal variations of PM2.5in China during 2013-2015[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2017,30(5):678-687.
[12]石敏俊,李元杰,张晓玲,等.基于环境承载力的京津冀雾霾治理政策效果评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(9):66-75.Shi M J,Li Y J,Zhang X L,et al.Will the haze control target of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region be realized?An assessment based on environmental carrying capacity[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2017,27(9):66-75.
[13]薛文博,杨金田,陈潇君,等.“十一五”电力行业二氧化硫总量控制的环境效益评估[J].环境科学研究,2010,23(11):1355-1360.Xue W B,Yang J T,Chen X J,et al.Environmental benefit assessment of the‘Eleventh Five-Year Plan’total pollution control of sulfur dioxide emissions from the power industry[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2010,23(11):1355-1360.
[14]薛文博,王金南,杨金田,等.电力行业多污染物协同控制的环境效益模拟[J].环境科学研究,2012,25(11):1304-1310.Xue W B,Wang J N,Yang J T,et al.Simulation of environmental effects of multi-pollutants from the electric power industry[J].Research of Environmental Sciences,2012,25(11):1304-1310.
[15]朱法华,王临清.煤电超低排放的技术经济与环境效益分析[J].环境保护,2014,42(21):28-33.Zhu F H,Wang L Q.Analysis on technology-economy and environment benefit of ultra-low emission from coal-fired power units[J].Environmental Protection,2014,42(21):28-33.
[16]周磊,周洋毅,吴建.浙江省火电行业主要污染物减排环境效益研究[J].中国环境管理,2015,7(5):89-95.Zhou L,Zhou Y Y,Wu J.Study on environmental benefits of the main pollutant emission reduction by thermal power industry in Zhejiang Province[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2015,7(5):89-95.
[17]朱超,史志斌.重点能源转型政策环境绩效评价研究[J].环境影响评价,2017,39(4):4-9.Zhu C,Shi Z B.Study of environmental performance assessment of key energy transformation policies[J].Environmental Impact Assessment,2017,39(4):4-9.
[18]张继平,宁杨翠,刘春兰,等.北京市门头沟区“煤改电”工程大气环境质量改善效果监测分析[J].生态与农村环境学报,2017,33(10):898-906.Zhang J P,Ning Y C,Liu C L,et al.Monitoring and analysis of effect of project‘replacing coal with electricity’improving atmospheric environmental quality in Mentougou District,Beijing[J].Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment,2017,33(10):898-906.
[19]樊守彬,田灵娣,张东旭,等.APEC会议期间北京机动车排放控制效果评估[J].环境科学,2016,37(1):74-81.Fan S B,Tian L D,Zhang D X,et al.Evaluation on the effectiveness of vehicle exhaust emission control measures during the APEC Conference in Beijing[J].Environmental Science,2016,37(1):74-81.
[20]范秀英,张微,韩圣慧.我国汽车尾气污染状况及其控制对策分析[J].环境科学,1999,20(5):102-108.Fan X Y,Zhang W,Han S H.Vehicle pollution situation and its control in China[J].Environmental Science,1999,20(5):102-108.
[21]中华人民共和国环境保护部.道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南(试行)[R].北京:中华人民共和国环境保护部,2014.32-48.
[22]HJ/T 180-2005,城市机动车排放空气污染测算方法[S].HJ/T 180-2005,Method for estimation of air pollution from vehicular emission in urban area[S].
[23]何立强,胡京南,祖雷,等.国Ⅰ~国Ⅲ重型柴油车尾气PM2.5及其碳质组分的排放特征[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(3):656-662.He L Q,Hu J N,Zu L,et al.Emission characteristics of exhaust PM2.5and its carbonaceous components from ChinaⅠto ChinaⅢheavy-duty diesel vehicles[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2015,35(3):656-662.
[24]田灵娣,樊守彬,张东旭,等.行驶速度对机动车尾气排放的影响[J].环境工程学报,2016,10(11):6541-6548.Tian L D,Fan S B,Zhang D X,et al.Influence of average speed on vehicle exhaust emissions[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering,2016,10(11):6541-6548.
[25]Lavee D,Becker N.Cost-benefit analysis of an accelerated vehicle-retirement programme[J].Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,2009,52(6):777-795.
[26]樊守彬,田灵娣,张东旭,等.北京市机动车尾气排放因子研究[J].环境科学,2015,36(7):2374-2380.Fan S B,Tian L D,Zhang D X,et al.Emission factors of vehicle exhaust in Beijing[J].Environmental Science,2015,36(7):2374-2380.
[27]王人洁,王堃,张帆,等.中国国道和省道机动车尾气排放特征[J].环境科学,2017,38(9):3553-3560.Wang R J,Wang K,Zhang F,et al.Emission characteristics of vehicles from national roads and provincial roads in China[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(9):3553-3560.
[28]毛红梅,张凯山,第宝锋.四川省天然源VOCs排放量的估算和时空分布[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(5):1289-1296.Mao H M,Zhang K S,Di B F.Studies on estimates of biogenic VOC emission and its temporal and spatial distribution in Sichuan[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(5):1289-1296.
[29]尹佩玲,黄争超,郑丹楠,等.宁波-舟山港船舶排放清单及时空分布特征[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(1):27-37.Yin P L,Huang Z C,Zheng D N,et al.Marine vessel emission and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics in NingboZhoushan Port[J].China Environmental Science,2017,37(1):27-37.
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