“大气十条”政策的实施对空气质量的影响
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摘要
为改善中国的空气污染状况,特别是减少北方地区供暖季节的雾霾天气,国务院于2013年提出了治理空气污染问题的"大气十条"政策。本文利用258个地级市的数据,对"大气十条"政策的实施是否有助于减轻北方地区冬季供暖对其空气污染的影响进行了研究。结果显示:在控制了地区层面因素、秸秆燃烧点、其他能源使用量、各种气象条件、节假日因素以及各种固定效应后,冬季供暖确实显著加重了北方地区的空气污染。相对于南方地区,实施"大气十条"政策显著减轻了北方地区冬季空气污染程度,但是这一作用仅在供暖季节显现,这说明"大气十条"政策主要是通过与供暖相关的机制改善了北方地区冬季的空气质量。本文进一步设置"煤改气"指标,发现"煤改气"虽然可以改善北方地区冬季空气质量,但是通过测算可知其使用成本远远高于燃煤供热。更进一步地,本文将发电用煤作为清洁用煤的代理变量,发现清洁用煤的增加并不会导致空气质量的恶化。因此,如果用先进燃煤锅炉集中供热,减少散煤和燃煤小锅炉,将有效改善北方地区冬季空气质量,而且更加符合中国"富煤、少油、缺气"的现实资源禀赋状况,长期看有利于国家能源安全。
In order to improve the air quality in China, and particularly reduce the haze during the heating season in the north, the State Council proposed the "Atmosphere Ten Articles" to address air pollution problems in2013. The government took the lead in managing the coal-fired small boilers and accelerating the implementation of coal to gas transformation in the "Atmospheric Ten Articles". This paper uses the unbalanced panel data of 258 cities from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015 to study whether the implementation of "Atmospheric Ten Articles" can help reduce the impact of heating on air pollution in the northern winter. The regression results show that:(1)After controlling the interactions of regional factors, straw burning point data, other energy usage, various meteorological conditions, holiday factors, various fixed effects, and fixed effects, heating in winter has increased the northern region's AQI significantly.(2) The implementation of "Atmospheric Ten Articles" has significantly reduced the air pollution in the northern region during the heating season, and this effect is only reflected in the winter season. This shows that "Atmospheric Ten Articles" works through the channel of heating.(3) In order to study the specific mechanism of the "Atmospheric Ten Articles", we set the "coal to gas" indicator. The results show that "coal to gas" has significantly improved the air quality in the north in the winter.(4) Further, we use coal for power generation as the proxy variable for clean coal usage. The analysis results show that the increase in efficient clean coal does not lead to deterioration of air quality. Therefore, if centralized heating with advanced coal-fired boilers and reduction of bulk coal and coal-fired small boilers will also effectively improve the air quality in the northern heating season. It is more in line with the reality of China's resource endowment, coal-rich, oil-and gas-short. And it is conducive to national energy security.
In order to improve the air quality in China, and particularly reduce the haze during the heating season in the north, the State Council proposed the "Atmosphere Ten Articles" to address air pollution problems in2013. The government took the lead in managing the coal-fired small boilers and accelerating the implementation of coal to gas transformation in the "Atmospheric Ten Articles". This paper uses the unbalanced panel data of 258 cities from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015 to study whether the implementation of "Atmospheric Ten Articles" can help reduce the impact of heating on air pollution in the northern winter. The regression results show that:(1)After controlling the interactions of regional factors, straw burning point data, other energy usage, various meteorological conditions, holiday factors, various fixed effects, and fixed effects, heating in winter has increased the northern region's AQI significantly.(2) The implementation of "Atmospheric Ten Articles" has significantly reduced the air pollution in the northern region during the heating season, and this effect is only reflected in the winter season. This shows that "Atmospheric Ten Articles" works through the channel of heating.(3) In order to study the specific mechanism of the "Atmospheric Ten Articles", we set the "coal to gas" indicator. The results show that "coal to gas" has significantly improved the air quality in the north in the winter.(4) Further, we use coal for power generation as the proxy variable for clean coal usage. The analysis results show that the increase in efficient clean coal does not lead to deterioration of air quality. Therefore, if centralized heating with advanced coal-fired boilers and reduction of bulk coal and coal-fired small boilers will also effectively improve the air quality in the northern heating season. It is more in line with the reality of China's resource endowment, coal-rich, oil-and gas-short. And it is conducive to national energy security.
引文
[1]曹静,王鑫,钟笑寒.限行政策是否改善了北京市的空气质量[J].经济学(季刊),2014,(3):1091-1126.
[2]陈强,孙丰凯,徐艳娴.冬季供暖导致雾霾?来自华北城市面板的证据[J].南开经济研究,2017,(4):25-40.
[3]高峰.煤改气无助于控制氮氧化物排放[N].中国环境报,2014-06-26.
[4]江亿,唐孝炎,倪维斗,王静贻,胡姗.北京PM2.5与冬季采暖热源的关系及治理措施[J].中国能源,2014,36(1):7-13.
[5]李金珂,曹静.集中供暖对中国空气污染影响的实证研究[J].经济学报,2017,(4):138-150.
[6]梁若冰,席鹏辉.轨道交通对空气污染的异质性影响——基于RDID方法的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2016,(3):83-98.
[7]刘虹.“煤改气”工程且行且慎重——基于北京市“煤改气”工程的调研分析[J].宏观经济研究,2015,(4):9-13.
[8]刘应红.从价格承受能力看居民采暖“煤改气”——以北京市城乡为例[J].国际石油经济,2017,(6):45-50.
[9]孟亚东,孙洪磊.京津冀地区“煤改气”发展探讨[J].国际石油经济,2014,(11):84-90.
[10]石光,周黎安,郑世林,张友国.环境补贴与污染治理——基于电力行业的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2016,(4):1439-1462.
[11]王善才.“煤改气”的是是非非[J].生态经济,2018,(2):10-13.
[12]席鹏辉,梁若冰.城市空气质量与环境移民——基于模糊断点模型的经验研究[J].经济科学,2015a,(4):30-43.
[13]席鹏辉,梁若冰.空气污染对地方环保投入的影响——基于多断点回归设计[J].统计研究,2015b,(9):76-83.
[14]席鹏辉,梁若冰.油价变动对空气污染的影响:以机动车使用为传导途径[J].中国工业经济,2015c,(10):100-114.
[15]杨麟,王杨.工业锅炉清洁能源替代(煤改气)现状分析与建议[J].工业锅炉,2017,(4):29-32.
[16]Almond,D.,Y.Chen,M.Greenstone,and H.Li.Winter Heating or Clean Air?Unintended Impacts of China’s Huai River Policy[J].American Economic Review:Papers&Proceedings,2009,99(2):184-190.
[17]Chen,Y.,A.Ebenstein,M.Greenstone,and H.Li.Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013a,110(32):12936-12941.
[18]Chen,Y.,G.Jin,N.Kumar,and G.Shi.The Promise of Beijing:Evaluating the Impact of the 2008Olympic Games on Air Quality[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2013b,(66):424-443.
[19]Ebenstein,A.,M.Fan,M.Greenstone,G.He,and M.Zhou.New Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2017,114(39):10384-10389.
[20]He,G.,M.Fan,and M.Zhou.The Effect of Air Pollution on Mortality in China:Evidence from the 2008Beijing Olympic Games[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2016,(79):18-39.
[21]Liang,X.,T.Zou,B.Guo,S.Li,H.Zhang,S.Zhang,H.Huang,and S.Chen.Assessing Beijing’s PM2.5Pollution:Severity,Weather Impact,APEC and Winter Heating[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Science,2015,471(2182):1-20.
(1)资料来源:陈其珏.LNG价格一周跌逾33%,“气荒”吹大的价格泡沫破了[N].上海证券报,2018-01-04.
(1)由于文章篇幅有限,这里没有报告变量的统计性描述,感兴趣的读者,可登陆《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件中查阅。
(1)考虑到文章篇幅有限,回归表格中并没有报告L0到L15的回归结果(L0到L15的系数基本为正值且显著)。感兴趣的读者,可登陆《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件中查阅。
(1)为了检验结果的稳健性,本文还将样本控制在供暖前后7天的时间范围内,得到的回归结果同表3类似。
(1)当然,还有一种可能性是,第二类政策在南方推行力度比北方地区推行力度大,这样将观察到第二类政策对北方地区空气质量改善的效应相对于南方地区是负的。这种情况出现时,意味着在表3中低估了第一类政策对北方地区空气质量改善的正向效应,更加有利于本文的结论。
(1)资料来源:陆如泉.中国天然气进口的现状与未来[N].宁波日报,2018-01-08.
[2]陈强,孙丰凯,徐艳娴.冬季供暖导致雾霾?来自华北城市面板的证据[J].南开经济研究,2017,(4):25-40.
[3]高峰.煤改气无助于控制氮氧化物排放[N].中国环境报,2014-06-26.
[4]江亿,唐孝炎,倪维斗,王静贻,胡姗.北京PM2.5与冬季采暖热源的关系及治理措施[J].中国能源,2014,36(1):7-13.
[5]李金珂,曹静.集中供暖对中国空气污染影响的实证研究[J].经济学报,2017,(4):138-150.
[6]梁若冰,席鹏辉.轨道交通对空气污染的异质性影响——基于RDID方法的经验研究[J].中国工业经济,2016,(3):83-98.
[7]刘虹.“煤改气”工程且行且慎重——基于北京市“煤改气”工程的调研分析[J].宏观经济研究,2015,(4):9-13.
[8]刘应红.从价格承受能力看居民采暖“煤改气”——以北京市城乡为例[J].国际石油经济,2017,(6):45-50.
[9]孟亚东,孙洪磊.京津冀地区“煤改气”发展探讨[J].国际石油经济,2014,(11):84-90.
[10]石光,周黎安,郑世林,张友国.环境补贴与污染治理——基于电力行业的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2016,(4):1439-1462.
[11]王善才.“煤改气”的是是非非[J].生态经济,2018,(2):10-13.
[12]席鹏辉,梁若冰.城市空气质量与环境移民——基于模糊断点模型的经验研究[J].经济科学,2015a,(4):30-43.
[13]席鹏辉,梁若冰.空气污染对地方环保投入的影响——基于多断点回归设计[J].统计研究,2015b,(9):76-83.
[14]席鹏辉,梁若冰.油价变动对空气污染的影响:以机动车使用为传导途径[J].中国工业经济,2015c,(10):100-114.
[15]杨麟,王杨.工业锅炉清洁能源替代(煤改气)现状分析与建议[J].工业锅炉,2017,(4):29-32.
[16]Almond,D.,Y.Chen,M.Greenstone,and H.Li.Winter Heating or Clean Air?Unintended Impacts of China’s Huai River Policy[J].American Economic Review:Papers&Proceedings,2009,99(2):184-190.
[17]Chen,Y.,A.Ebenstein,M.Greenstone,and H.Li.Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2013a,110(32):12936-12941.
[18]Chen,Y.,G.Jin,N.Kumar,and G.Shi.The Promise of Beijing:Evaluating the Impact of the 2008Olympic Games on Air Quality[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2013b,(66):424-443.
[19]Ebenstein,A.,M.Fan,M.Greenstone,G.He,and M.Zhou.New Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2017,114(39):10384-10389.
[20]He,G.,M.Fan,and M.Zhou.The Effect of Air Pollution on Mortality in China:Evidence from the 2008Beijing Olympic Games[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2016,(79):18-39.
[21]Liang,X.,T.Zou,B.Guo,S.Li,H.Zhang,S.Zhang,H.Huang,and S.Chen.Assessing Beijing’s PM2.5Pollution:Severity,Weather Impact,APEC and Winter Heating[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Science,2015,471(2182):1-20.
(1)资料来源:陈其珏.LNG价格一周跌逾33%,“气荒”吹大的价格泡沫破了[N].上海证券报,2018-01-04.
(1)由于文章篇幅有限,这里没有报告变量的统计性描述,感兴趣的读者,可登陆《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件中查阅。
(1)考虑到文章篇幅有限,回归表格中并没有报告L0到L15的回归结果(L0到L15的系数基本为正值且显著)。感兴趣的读者,可登陆《中国工业经济》网站(http://www.ciejournal.org)公开附件中查阅。
(1)为了检验结果的稳健性,本文还将样本控制在供暖前后7天的时间范围内,得到的回归结果同表3类似。
(1)当然,还有一种可能性是,第二类政策在南方推行力度比北方地区推行力度大,这样将观察到第二类政策对北方地区空气质量改善的效应相对于南方地区是负的。这种情况出现时,意味着在表3中低估了第一类政策对北方地区空气质量改善的正向效应,更加有利于本文的结论。
(1)资料来源:陆如泉.中国天然气进口的现状与未来[N].宁波日报,2018-01-08.