桐城市农业热量资源对气候变化的响应分析
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摘要
根据1961—2017年桐城市气温及初、终霜期等气象资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了桐城市的气温和稳定通过0与10℃农业热量资源及初、终霜期的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明,桐城地区气候总体呈微弱的变暖趋势,且冬、春季气候变暖明显,夏、秋季节则呈变凉趋势,并存在3个温暖期和2个温凉期。农业热量资源越来越丰富,≥0℃初日和≥10℃初日均呈微小的提早趋势,但1997年以后存在明显的推迟;≥0℃终日和≥10℃终日均呈延迟趋势,且1997年以后延迟明显;≥0℃和≥10℃初日与终日之间的持续日数均呈延长趋势,2011年以后延长显著;活动积温虽然总体是增多的,但20世纪80年代中期以前是呈减少的趋势,以后则呈增多的趋势,尤其是2011年以来活动积温显著增多。无霜期显著增多,2011—2017年无霜期长达264.6 d。
According to the 1961—2017, last frost in the early period and Tongcheng city air temperature and other meteorological data, using mathematical statistics method, the temperature and the stability of the Tongcheng city by 0 and 10 ℃agricultural resources, and last frost in the early period of the heat change characteristics and regularity of response to climate change were analysised. The results showed that the climate of Tongcheng area generally presented a weak warming trend, and the climate of winter and spring was obviously warming, while the summer and autumn seasons showed a cooling trend, and there were three warm periods and two warm and cool periods. Agricultural heat resource was more and more rich, 0 ℃ or higher in the early days and 10 ℃ or higher average daily showed a trend of small early, but after 1997,there was an obvious delay; 0 and 10 ℃ or more between the initial and ending days of continuous days all showed a trend of extending, prolonging significantly after 2011; Although the cumulative temperature of activity increased in general, it tended to decrease before the mid-1980s and increase after that, especially since 2011. The frost-free period increased significantly, and the frost-free period increased to 264.6 days in 2011—2017.
According to the 1961—2017, last frost in the early period and Tongcheng city air temperature and other meteorological data, using mathematical statistics method, the temperature and the stability of the Tongcheng city by 0 and 10 ℃agricultural resources, and last frost in the early period of the heat change characteristics and regularity of response to climate change were analysised. The results showed that the climate of Tongcheng area generally presented a weak warming trend, and the climate of winter and spring was obviously warming, while the summer and autumn seasons showed a cooling trend, and there were three warm periods and two warm and cool periods. Agricultural heat resource was more and more rich, 0 ℃ or higher in the early days and 10 ℃ or higher average daily showed a trend of small early, but after 1997,there was an obvious delay; 0 and 10 ℃ or more between the initial and ending days of continuous days all showed a trend of extending, prolonging significantly after 2011; Although the cumulative temperature of activity increased in general, it tended to decrease before the mid-1980s and increase after that, especially since 2011. The frost-free period increased significantly, and the frost-free period increased to 264.6 days in 2011—2017.
引文
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[3]秦大河,罗勇.全球气候变化的原因和未来变化趋势[J].科学对社会的影响,2008(2):16-21.
[4] BONSAL B R,ZHANG X B,VINEENT L A,et al. Charaeteristies of daily and extreme temperature over Canada[J].Climate,2001,5(14):1959-1976.
[5]丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.
[6]翟盘茂,邹旭恺.1951-2003年中国气温和降水变化及其对干旱的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(1):16-18.
[7]吴绍洪,罗勇,王浩,等.中国气候变化影响与适应:态势和展望[J].科学通报,2016,61(10):1042-1054.
[8]裴占江,刘杰,史风梅,等.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].黑龙江农业科学,2017(8):112-118.
[9]姜彤,李修仓,巢清尘,等.《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》的主要结论和新认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):157-166.
[10]钱凤魁,王文涛,刘燕华.农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):19-24.