基于云理论的JTC可靠性实时评估方法
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摘要
针对目前无绝缘轨道电路JTC可靠性分析方法无法实时反映指定JTC系统健康状况的不足,提出基于云理论的JTC可靠性实时评估方法。根据TCR远程监测系统获取的JTC实时状态信息,建立实时状态下JTC可靠性模型,并以实时状态下的平均故障前时间作为可靠性实时评估指标。基于云理论,建立周边环境数据与元件失效率之间的失效率适应云模型。通过建立系统可靠性评价集云,对实时外部环境和设备状态条件下的JTC可靠性进行评估,并得出评估结果。结果表明,基于云理论的JTC可靠性实时评估方法能够正确、客观地对JTC的可靠性进行实时评估,解决可变条件下JTC系统可靠性的实时评价问题。
To aim at the deficiency that conventional reliability analysis method can not reflect the real time health status of specified JTC,this paper presented a real-time JTC reliability evaluation method based on cloud theory.Firstly,the real time reliability model of JTC was built according to the JTC real-time status information acquired by TCR remote monitoring system.The MTTF(mean time to failure)under real time condition was chosen as the reliability real time evaluation index.Secondly,the adaptable cloud model of failure rate between the surrounding environmental data and component failure rate was constructed based on cloud theory.Finally,the cloud of system reliability evaluation set was established to evaluate the reliability of JTC under real time external environment and device condition to obtain the final evaluation results.The results indicate that the real time reliability evaluation method of JTC based on cloud theory can accurately and objectively evaluate the reliability of JTC in real time,and solve the reliability real-time evaluation problem of JTC under changeable conditions.
To aim at the deficiency that conventional reliability analysis method can not reflect the real time health status of specified JTC,this paper presented a real-time JTC reliability evaluation method based on cloud theory.Firstly,the real time reliability model of JTC was built according to the JTC real-time status information acquired by TCR remote monitoring system.The MTTF(mean time to failure)under real time condition was chosen as the reliability real time evaluation index.Secondly,the adaptable cloud model of failure rate between the surrounding environmental data and component failure rate was constructed based on cloud theory.Finally,the cloud of system reliability evaluation set was established to evaluate the reliability of JTC under real time external environment and device condition to obtain the final evaluation results.The results indicate that the real time reliability evaluation method of JTC based on cloud theory can accurately and objectively evaluate the reliability of JTC in real time,and solve the reliability real-time evaluation problem of JTC under changeable conditions.
引文
[1]陈琛,赵林海.无绝缘轨道电路可靠度的计算[J].铁道学报,2016,38(9):66-71.CHEN Chen,ZHAO Linhai.Study on the Influence of Compensation Capacitor on JTC Reliability[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(9):66-71.
[2]赵林海,蔡伯根,邱宽民,等.基于HHT、DBWT的无绝缘轨道电路补偿电容故障诊断[J].铁道学报,2011,33(3):49-54.ZHAO Linhai,CAI Baigen,QIU Kuanmin,et al.The Method of Diagnosis of Compensation Capacitor Failures with Jointless Track Circuits Based on HHT and DBWT[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2011,33(3):49-54.
[3]冉义奎.无绝缘轨道电路道砟电阻在线测量方法的研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2011.
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[6]覃庆努.复杂系统可靠性建模、分析和综合评价方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.
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[10]宋远骏,李德毅.电子产品可靠性的云模型评价方法[J].电子学报,2000,28(12):74-76.SONG Yuanjun,LI Deyi.Reliability Evaluation of Electronic Products Based on Cloud Models[J].Acta Electronica Sinica,2000,28(12):74-76.
[11]汲锡林,罗自强,王建新.复杂电子系统Markov模型及云可靠性评估[J].吉林大学学报(信息科学版),2008,26(2):116-121.JI Xilin,LUO Ziqiang,WANG Jianxin.Cloud Reliability Evaluation for Complex Electronic Systems Based on Markov Model[J].Journal of Jilin University(Information Science Edition),2008,26(2):116-121.
[12]覃庆努,魏学业,韩磊,等.电子系统的Markov模型和云可靠性评价方法[J].西安交通大学学报,2012,46(8):87-93.QIN Qingnu,WEI Xueye,HAN Lei,et al.Reliability Evaluation of Electronic System Based on Markov Model and Cloud Theory[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University,2012,46(8):87-93.
[13]Weather Underground.Weather Forecast&Reports[EB/OL].(2017-03-02)[2017-06-30].https://www.wunderground.com/.
[14]ZHAO L H,WU J P,RAN Y K.Fault Diagnosis for Track Circuit Using AOK-TFRs and AGA[J].Control Engineering Practice,2012,20:1270-1280.
[15]关琼.客运专线ZPW-2000一体化轨道电路可靠性分析[J].铁道运营技术,2014(1):58-60.
[16]中华人民共和国铁道部.TB/T 2852-2015轨道电路通用技术条件[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2015.
[17]中华人民共和国铁道部.TB/T 3206-2008 ZPW-2000轨道电路技术条件[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2008.
[18]International Electrotechnical Commission.IEC 62425-2007 Railway application:Communication,Signaling and Processing Systems:Safety Related Electronic Systems for Signaling[S].Geneva International Electrotechnical Commission,2007.
[19]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路信号维护规则技术标准Ⅱ[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2008.
[2]赵林海,蔡伯根,邱宽民,等.基于HHT、DBWT的无绝缘轨道电路补偿电容故障诊断[J].铁道学报,2011,33(3):49-54.ZHAO Linhai,CAI Baigen,QIU Kuanmin,et al.The Method of Diagnosis of Compensation Capacitor Failures with Jointless Track Circuits Based on HHT and DBWT[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2011,33(3):49-54.
[3]冉义奎.无绝缘轨道电路道砟电阻在线测量方法的研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2011.
[4]ZHAO L H,ZHANG C L,QIU K M,et al.A Fault Diagnosis Method for the Turning Area of Jointless Track Circuits Based on a Neural Network[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,2013,227:333-343.
[5]冯栋,赵林海.基于TCR监测数据的JTC补偿电容容值估计方法[J].铁道学报,2016,38(2):89-95.FENG Dong,ZHAO Linhai.Method of Estimation on Capacitance of JTC Compensation Capacitor Based on TCRMonitoring Data[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2016,38(2):89-95.
[6]覃庆努.复杂系统可靠性建模、分析和综合评价方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.
[7]李德毅,杜鹃.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005:137-186.
[8]邱宽民.JT1-CZ2000型TCR车载系统[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,2007.
[9]李德毅,李常昱.论正态云模型的普适性[J].中国工程科学,2004:6(8):28-34.LI Deyi,LI Changyu.Study on the Universality of the Normal Cloud Model[J].Engineering Science,2004,6(8):28-34.
[10]宋远骏,李德毅.电子产品可靠性的云模型评价方法[J].电子学报,2000,28(12):74-76.SONG Yuanjun,LI Deyi.Reliability Evaluation of Electronic Products Based on Cloud Models[J].Acta Electronica Sinica,2000,28(12):74-76.
[11]汲锡林,罗自强,王建新.复杂电子系统Markov模型及云可靠性评估[J].吉林大学学报(信息科学版),2008,26(2):116-121.JI Xilin,LUO Ziqiang,WANG Jianxin.Cloud Reliability Evaluation for Complex Electronic Systems Based on Markov Model[J].Journal of Jilin University(Information Science Edition),2008,26(2):116-121.
[12]覃庆努,魏学业,韩磊,等.电子系统的Markov模型和云可靠性评价方法[J].西安交通大学学报,2012,46(8):87-93.QIN Qingnu,WEI Xueye,HAN Lei,et al.Reliability Evaluation of Electronic System Based on Markov Model and Cloud Theory[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong University,2012,46(8):87-93.
[13]Weather Underground.Weather Forecast&Reports[EB/OL].(2017-03-02)[2017-06-30].https://www.wunderground.com/.
[14]ZHAO L H,WU J P,RAN Y K.Fault Diagnosis for Track Circuit Using AOK-TFRs and AGA[J].Control Engineering Practice,2012,20:1270-1280.
[15]关琼.客运专线ZPW-2000一体化轨道电路可靠性分析[J].铁道运营技术,2014(1):58-60.
[16]中华人民共和国铁道部.TB/T 2852-2015轨道电路通用技术条件[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2015.
[17]中华人民共和国铁道部.TB/T 3206-2008 ZPW-2000轨道电路技术条件[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2008.
[18]International Electrotechnical Commission.IEC 62425-2007 Railway application:Communication,Signaling and Processing Systems:Safety Related Electronic Systems for Signaling[S].Geneva International Electrotechnical Commission,2007.
[19]中华人民共和国铁道部.铁路信号维护规则技术标准Ⅱ[S].北京:中国铁道出版社,2008.