河流系统实时洪水预报误差多点联合校正方法研究
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摘要
实时校正是改善洪水实时预报精度的重要手段。河流系统中多个站点之间具有高度的水力联系,各个站点之间的误差也具有空间关联性。依据河道水流演进的基本方程和动态自适应的自回归方法,建立了考虑误差空间演化的河流系统实时洪水预报误差多点联合校正方法。利用洪峰段洪量误差、洪峰流量误差、纳什效率系数(NSE)和峰滞时间等指标分别对多点联合校正和不考虑误差空间关联性的单点校正开展校正效果评估。以淮河王家坝断面以上为背景开展实证研究,结果表明:考虑河流系统误差空间关联性的多点联合校正效果优于单点校正,洪峰段效果更为显著,能够更有效地提高河流系统洪水预报的精度。
Real-time correction is an important way to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.There are high-level hydraulic connections among the multiple stations in a river system,and the errors between the multiple stations are spatially interconnected as well.Based on the basic equations of river flood routing and the dynamic adaptive autoregressive method,this study proposed a multi-point joint correction method for real-time flood forecasting errors with consideration to the spatial evolution of errors.The correction effect was evaluated in terms of the flood volume error during flood peak period,flood peak discharge error,Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,and lag time of peak.This paper conducted a case study on the region up the Wangjiaba section of Huaihe River to demonstrate the proposed methodology.The results indicated that the effect of multi-point joint correction was better than that of single-point correction,and the effect was even more prominent for the flood peak period.The proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting of the river system.
Real-time correction is an important way to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.There are high-level hydraulic connections among the multiple stations in a river system,and the errors between the multiple stations are spatially interconnected as well.Based on the basic equations of river flood routing and the dynamic adaptive autoregressive method,this study proposed a multi-point joint correction method for real-time flood forecasting errors with consideration to the spatial evolution of errors.The correction effect was evaluated in terms of the flood volume error during flood peak period,flood peak discharge error,Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,and lag time of peak.This paper conducted a case study on the region up the Wangjiaba section of Huaihe River to demonstrate the proposed methodology.The results indicated that the effect of multi-point joint correction was better than that of single-point correction,and the effect was even more prominent for the flood peak period.The proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting of the river system.
引文
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[14]AKAIKE H.Factor analysis and AIC[J].Psychometrika,1987,52(3):317-332.DOI:10.1007/BF02294359.
[15]焦伟杰,龙海峰.基于自回归模型的分布式水文模型预报校正[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):103-108.(JIAO W J,LONG H Z.Forecast and correction of distributed hydrological model based on auto-regression model[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(2):103-108.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.19.
[16]郭磊,赵英林.基于误差自回归的洪水实时预报校正算法的研究[J].水电能源科学,2002(3):25-27.(GUO L,ZHAO Y L.Study on adjustment methods of real-time flood forecasting in view of autoregressive model[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2002(3):25-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2002.03.009.
[17]李致家.具有行蓄洪区的河道流量演算方法探讨[J].水科学进展,1997(1):68-73.(LI Z J.Research on channel routing method with flood diversion and flood retarding areas[J].Advances in Water Science,1997(1):68-73.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.1997.01.011.
[18]梁忠民,王旭伟,宁亚伟,等.基于动力系统反演理论的马斯京根流量演算误差校正[J].水力发电,2017,43(12):9-12.(LI-ANG Z M,WANG X W,NING Y W,et al.Study on error correction method of Muskingum flow calculation based on dynamic system inversion theory[J].Water Power,2017,43(12):9-12.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2017.12.003.
[19]杨敏芝,钟平安,汪曼琳,等.大汶河流域陆面蒸发估算方法比较[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(5):50-55.(YANG MZ,ZHONG P A,WANG M L,et al.Comparative study on the methods of estimating land surface evaporation in Dawenhe river basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2017,15(5):50-55.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.05.008.
[20]WU Y N,ZHONG P A,ZHANG Y,et al.Integrated flood risk assessment and zonation method:a case study in Huaihe River basin,China[J].Natural Hazards.2015,78(1):635-651.DOI:10.1007/s11069-015-1737-3.
[21]吴业楠,钟平安,赵云发,等.基于灰色关联分析的相似洪水动态展延方法[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014(1):126-130.(WU Y N,ZHONG P A,ZHAO Y F,et al.Dynamic extending approach of similar flood based on gray correlation analysis[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014(1):126-130.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/sp.j.1201.2014.01126.
[22]谭乔凤,王旭,王浩,等.ANN、ANFIS和AR模型在日径流时间序列预测中的应用比较[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):12-17,26.(TAN Q F,WANG X,WANG H,et al.Comparative study of ANN,ANFIS and AR model for daily runoff time series prediction,2016[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,14(6):12-17,26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.003.
[2]ZHU F L,ZHONG P A,SUN Y M.Multi-criteria group decision making under uncertainty:Application in reservoir flood control operation[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2018,100,236-251.DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.032.
[3]梁忠民,戴荣,李彬权.基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性分析研究进展[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):274-281.(LIANG Z M,DAI R,LI B G.A review of hydrological uncertainty analysis based on Bayesian theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(2):274-281.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2010.02.008.
[4]叶守泽,夏军.水文科学研究的世纪回眸与展望[J].水科学进展,2002(1):93-104.(YE S Z,XIA J.Century’s retrospect and looking into the future of hydrological science[J].Advances in Water Science,2002(1):93-104.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2002.01.017.
[5]KOREN V I,BELCHIKOV V A,KUCHMENT L S,et al.Hydrological forecasting.proceedings of the symposium,Oxford,UK,15-18 April,1980.[J].IAHS-AISH Publication,1980.DOI:10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_4.
[6]WOOD E F.Filtering of partitioned large scale hydrological systems[J].Hydrological Sci Bull,1981,26(1),33-46.DOI:10.1080/02626668109490860.
[7]葛守西.一般线性汇流模型实时预报方法的初步探讨[J].水利学报,1985(4):3-11.(GE S X.The preliminary study of forecasting method on real time for general linear model of flow concentration[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1985(4):3-11.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.1986.10.011.
[8]李致家,孔祥光,朱兆成,等.河道洪水实时预报的半自适应模型研究[J].水科学进展,1998,9(4):367-372.(LI Z J,KONGX G,ZHU Z C,et al.Half-self adaptive updating Kalman filter model of channel flow routing[J].Advances in Water Science,1998,9(4):367-372.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.1998.04.010.
[9]田雨,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,等.洪水预报实时校正技术研究综述[J].人民黄河,2011,33(3):25-26.(TIAN Y,LEI X H,JIANG Y Z,et al.Review of real-time correction technology for flood forecast[J].Yellow River,2011,33(3):25-26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2011.03.010.
[10]王文鹏,李春红,王建平.洪水预报系统中实时校正模型的优选方法[J].水电自动化与大坝监测,2012,36(1):78-83.(WANG W P,LI C H,WANG J P.Optimal selection method of real-time correction model in flood forecasting system[J].Hydropower Automation and Dam Monitoring,2012,36(1):78-83.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-3893.2012.01.021.
[11]顾巍巍,孙如飞,张卫国,等.水库洪水实时优化校正预报模型的探究与应用[J].水力发电,2017,43(7):22-25.GU W W,SUN R F,ZHANG W G,et al.Research and application of real-time flood correction and forecast model for reservoir flood[J].Water Power,2017,43(7):22-25.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2017.07.006.
[12]CUNGE J A.On the subject of a flood propagation computation method(Muskingum Method)[J].Journal of Hydraulic Research,1969,7(2):205-230.DOI:10.1080/00221686909500264.
[13]王家彪,雷晓辉,廖卫红,等.马斯京根模型改进新思路[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(2):87-92,37.(WANG J B,LEIX H,LIAO W H,et al.A new idea for modifications of the Muskingum routing model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2016,14(2):87-92,37.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.02.016.
[14]AKAIKE H.Factor analysis and AIC[J].Psychometrika,1987,52(3):317-332.DOI:10.1007/BF02294359.
[15]焦伟杰,龙海峰.基于自回归模型的分布式水文模型预报校正[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(2):103-108.(JIAO W J,LONG H Z.Forecast and correction of distributed hydrological model based on auto-regression model[J].Journal of Water Resources&Water Engineering,2015,26(2):103-108.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.02.19.
[16]郭磊,赵英林.基于误差自回归的洪水实时预报校正算法的研究[J].水电能源科学,2002(3):25-27.(GUO L,ZHAO Y L.Study on adjustment methods of real-time flood forecasting in view of autoregressive model[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2002(3):25-27.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2002.03.009.
[17]李致家.具有行蓄洪区的河道流量演算方法探讨[J].水科学进展,1997(1):68-73.(LI Z J.Research on channel routing method with flood diversion and flood retarding areas[J].Advances in Water Science,1997(1):68-73.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.1997.01.011.
[18]梁忠民,王旭伟,宁亚伟,等.基于动力系统反演理论的马斯京根流量演算误差校正[J].水力发电,2017,43(12):9-12.(LI-ANG Z M,WANG X W,NING Y W,et al.Study on error correction method of Muskingum flow calculation based on dynamic system inversion theory[J].Water Power,2017,43(12):9-12.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0559-9342.2017.12.003.
[19]杨敏芝,钟平安,汪曼琳,等.大汶河流域陆面蒸发估算方法比较[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(5):50-55.(YANG MZ,ZHONG P A,WANG M L,et al.Comparative study on the methods of estimating land surface evaporation in Dawenhe river basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2017,15(5):50-55.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.05.008.
[20]WU Y N,ZHONG P A,ZHANG Y,et al.Integrated flood risk assessment and zonation method:a case study in Huaihe River basin,China[J].Natural Hazards.2015,78(1):635-651.DOI:10.1007/s11069-015-1737-3.
[21]吴业楠,钟平安,赵云发,等.基于灰色关联分析的相似洪水动态展延方法[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014(1):126-130.(WU Y N,ZHONG P A,ZHAO Y F,et al.Dynamic extending approach of similar flood based on gray correlation analysis[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014(1):126-130.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/sp.j.1201.2014.01126.
[22]谭乔凤,王旭,王浩,等.ANN、ANFIS和AR模型在日径流时间序列预测中的应用比较[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):12-17,26.(TAN Q F,WANG X,WANG H,et al.Comparative study of ANN,ANFIS and AR model for daily runoff time series prediction,2016[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,14(6):12-17,26.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.003.