基于本体的PPP项目风险案例推理
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摘要
PPP项目结构多样,生命周期长的特点导致其风险类型更为复杂,阶段性也更强。当PPP项目风险发生时,如何进行风险责任的认定以及采取何种措施来对PPP项目风险加以控制是目前风险管理的一大难点。针对上述问题,本文提出了采用基于本体的方法对PPP项目历史案例的风险信息进行表示和存储,并建立PPP项目风险案例库。在此基础上运用基于本体的概念语义相似度的计算方法进行案例推理。当新建项目发生风险时,使用该方法能够快速地推理出与在建项目风险情况最接近的一个或多个案例,并查找出该案例的风险历史处理措施和风险责任的承担情况,为项目管理者的决策提供参考。
The multiple modes and long life cycle of PPP project result in the diversity of risk mode and multiple phases. When risk occurs in PPP projects,one major difficulty in risk management is to confirm responsibility and take practical measure to control risk of PPP project. For the above problems,this essay proposes an ontology-based method to present and store risk information of historical cases in PPP project,establishing a PPP project risk cases library. On this base,it employs ontology-based calculation of semantic concept similarity for case deduction. When risk occurs in a new project,this method can quickly deduce the closest cases with the new project in risk situation.Moreover,it could also search for risk treatment and risk responsibility,so as to provide reference for the decision of project manager.
The multiple modes and long life cycle of PPP project result in the diversity of risk mode and multiple phases. When risk occurs in PPP projects,one major difficulty in risk management is to confirm responsibility and take practical measure to control risk of PPP project. For the above problems,this essay proposes an ontology-based method to present and store risk information of historical cases in PPP project,establishing a PPP project risk cases library. On this base,it employs ontology-based calculation of semantic concept similarity for case deduction. When risk occurs in a new project,this method can quickly deduce the closest cases with the new project in risk situation.Moreover,it could also search for risk treatment and risk responsibility,so as to provide reference for the decision of project manager.
引文
[1]江小燕,王明辉,田慧坤,等.基于本体的PPP项目风险信息建模与检索[J].土木工程与管理学报,2018,35(1):66-72.
[2]李丽,丰景春,钟云,等.全生命周期视角下的PPP项目风险识别[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(1):54-59.
[3] Studer R,Benjamins V R,Fensel D. Knowledge engineering:principles and methods[J]. Data&Knowledge Engineering,1998,25:161-197.
[4]谢红薇,李建伟.基于本体的案例推理模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2009,26(4):1422-1424.
[5]闫文周,刘振超.基于本体的EPC总承包项目风险控制研究[J].施工技术,2016,45(6):118-121.
[6]姜韶华,武静.基于本体与BIM的绿色建筑智能评价系统[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(4):35-39.
[7]孟俊娜,贺宁.建筑企业工程成本预算本体网络的构建[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(5):109-114.
[8] Rezgui Y. Ontology-centered knowledge management using information retrieval techniques[J]. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering,2006,20(4):261-270.
[9]陈恺文,徐鑫,袁竞峰,等. PPP项目残值风险本体知识库的构建与应用[J].科技管理研究,2017,(2):201-206.
[10] Berkat A. Using Case-Based Reasoning for detecting computer virus[J]. International Journal of Computer Science Issues,2011,8(4):606-610.
[11]陈瑶.基于案例推理的房地产投资风险评价的研究[J].建材世界,2009,30(5):89-92.
[12]冯为民,曹跃进,任宏.基于案例模糊推理的土木工程造价估算方法研究[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(3):51-56.
[13]李欣,查京民,李豪杰,等.基于案例推理的港口工程建设风险评价研究[J].港工技术,2011,48(5):33-35.
[14]刘晓文,胡克瑾.融合CBR和本体的决策支持系统框架及应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2009,45(3):235-238.
[15]李尧. PPP模式在中国的研究趋势分析[D].天津:天津大学,2012.
[16]王守清,刘云.公私合作(PPP)和特许经营等相关概念[J].环境界,2014,25(1):18-25.
[17] Swartout B,Patil R,Knight K,et al. Toward Distributed Use of Large-Scale Ontologies[C]//Proceedings of AAAI’97 Spring Symposium on Ontological Engineering. Menlo Park:AAAI,1997:138-148.
[18]张贤坤.基于案例推理的应急决策方法研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.
[2]李丽,丰景春,钟云,等.全生命周期视角下的PPP项目风险识别[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(1):54-59.
[3] Studer R,Benjamins V R,Fensel D. Knowledge engineering:principles and methods[J]. Data&Knowledge Engineering,1998,25:161-197.
[4]谢红薇,李建伟.基于本体的案例推理模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2009,26(4):1422-1424.
[5]闫文周,刘振超.基于本体的EPC总承包项目风险控制研究[J].施工技术,2016,45(6):118-121.
[6]姜韶华,武静.基于本体与BIM的绿色建筑智能评价系统[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(4):35-39.
[7]孟俊娜,贺宁.建筑企业工程成本预算本体网络的构建[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(5):109-114.
[8] Rezgui Y. Ontology-centered knowledge management using information retrieval techniques[J]. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering,2006,20(4):261-270.
[9]陈恺文,徐鑫,袁竞峰,等. PPP项目残值风险本体知识库的构建与应用[J].科技管理研究,2017,(2):201-206.
[10] Berkat A. Using Case-Based Reasoning for detecting computer virus[J]. International Journal of Computer Science Issues,2011,8(4):606-610.
[11]陈瑶.基于案例推理的房地产投资风险评价的研究[J].建材世界,2009,30(5):89-92.
[12]冯为民,曹跃进,任宏.基于案例模糊推理的土木工程造价估算方法研究[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(3):51-56.
[13]李欣,查京民,李豪杰,等.基于案例推理的港口工程建设风险评价研究[J].港工技术,2011,48(5):33-35.
[14]刘晓文,胡克瑾.融合CBR和本体的决策支持系统框架及应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2009,45(3):235-238.
[15]李尧. PPP模式在中国的研究趋势分析[D].天津:天津大学,2012.
[16]王守清,刘云.公私合作(PPP)和特许经营等相关概念[J].环境界,2014,25(1):18-25.
[17] Swartout B,Patil R,Knight K,et al. Toward Distributed Use of Large-Scale Ontologies[C]//Proceedings of AAAI’97 Spring Symposium on Ontological Engineering. Menlo Park:AAAI,1997:138-148.
[18]张贤坤.基于案例推理的应急决策方法研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.