标准化管理背景下大坝风险指标体系的构建与应用
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摘要
大坝风险分析存在较多不确性,从不同的背景及目标出发,其分析目的及意义可能较大不同.本文基于江西省水利工程标准化管理推进的背景下,构建了风险指标体系,体系包含2个一级指标、7个二级指标,19个三级指标,详细探讨了不同规模水库指标权重的确定方法,为开展风险评估提供了理论依据.
There are many uncertainties in dam risk analysis. From different backgrounds and objectives,the purpose and significance of dam risk analysis may be quite different. Based on the promotion of standardized management in Jiangxi province,this paper constructs a risk evaluation index system,which includes two first-level indicators,nine second-level indicators and 19 third-level indicators. The weight determination method of each index is analyzed,which provides a theoretical basis for risk assessment.
There are many uncertainties in dam risk analysis. From different backgrounds and objectives,the purpose and significance of dam risk analysis may be quite different. Based on the promotion of standardized management in Jiangxi province,this paper constructs a risk evaluation index system,which includes two first-level indicators,nine second-level indicators and 19 third-level indicators. The weight determination method of each index is analyzed,which provides a theoretical basis for risk assessment.
引文
[1]李雷,李君纯,等.江西省部分大、中型水库安全现状调研报告[R].水利部大坝安全管理中心、江西省水利厅建管处,2002,2.
[2]段智芳,傅琼华,李雷.病险水库除险加固排序在江西的示范应用研究[J].江西水利科技,2007,33(1):12~16.
[3]中华人民共和国水利部.水库大坝安全鉴定办法(水建管〔2003〕271号)[S]. 2003.
[4]中华人民共和国水利部.水库大坝安全评价导则(SL258-2017)[S]. 2017.
[5] ICOLD(International Commission on Large Dams). risk assessment in dam safety management[R]. ICOLD bulletin130,ICOLD,2005.
[6]ZHU Qingyuan,FANG Guohau. Evaluation index system for positive operation of water conservancy projects[J]. Water science and Engineering,2009,2(4):110~117.
[7]曹飞刚,刘刚,金爱民,等.浙江省水利管理与服务能力现代化发展水平评价[J].水利水电科技进展. 2017(09):41~45.
[8]陈守煜,李庆国.一种新的模糊聚类神经网络及其在水资源评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(6):662~667.
[9]中华人民共和国国务院.生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例[EB/OL].[2013-10-15] http:∥www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2007/content_632082.htm.中华人民共和国国务院.国务院关于进一步加强企业安全生产工作的通知[EB/OL].[2013-10-15] http:∥www.gov.cn/zwgk/2010-07/23/content_1662499.htm.
[1]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2018.
[2]段智芳,傅琼华,李雷.病险水库除险加固排序在江西的示范应用研究[J].江西水利科技,2007,33(1):12~16.
[3]中华人民共和国水利部.水库大坝安全鉴定办法(水建管〔2003〕271号)[S]. 2003.
[4]中华人民共和国水利部.水库大坝安全评价导则(SL258-2017)[S]. 2017.
[5] ICOLD(International Commission on Large Dams). risk assessment in dam safety management[R]. ICOLD bulletin130,ICOLD,2005.
[6]ZHU Qingyuan,FANG Guohau. Evaluation index system for positive operation of water conservancy projects[J]. Water science and Engineering,2009,2(4):110~117.
[7]曹飞刚,刘刚,金爱民,等.浙江省水利管理与服务能力现代化发展水平评价[J].水利水电科技进展. 2017(09):41~45.
[8]陈守煜,李庆国.一种新的模糊聚类神经网络及其在水资源评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2005,36(6):662~667.
[9]中华人民共和国国务院.生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例[EB/OL].[2013-10-15] http:∥www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2007/content_632082.htm.中华人民共和国国务院.国务院关于进一步加强企业安全生产工作的通知[EB/OL].[2013-10-15] http:∥www.gov.cn/zwgk/2010-07/23/content_1662499.htm.
[1]谢季坚,刘承平.模糊数学其应用[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2018.