中国装配式建筑产业区域发展水平评价
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摘要
准确测定装配式建筑产业区域发展水平是制定中国装配式建筑产业发展战略,助力"建筑产业现代化"的基础。根据波特"钻石模型"和区域协调发展理论,构建了涵盖发展规模、生产建造技术水平、产业技术创新能力、管理水平和发展潜力5个维度的评价指标体系。选取了2016年31个省份的统计数据,运用模糊灰色物元(FGME)和组合赋权(CW)方法,对中国华北、华东、华南等7个区域的装配式建筑产业进行分析和评价。研究结果显示:中国各区域装配式建筑发展水平差异性显著,总体呈现梯形等级分布;华东地区装配式建筑产业发展普遍较高,其他依次是华中、华北、西南、东北和华南,西北地区发展相对薄弱。
As an effective measure for improving the productivity,saving energy and shortening the time limit of the construction industry,the prefabricated building has attracted worldwide concerns and been growing at a high rate in recent years. However,unbalanced development of the fabricated building industry has been becoming more and more prominent in different area. Thus,to make scientific planning of fabricated buildings and promote the modernization of construction industry,it is necessary to carry out the evaluation of the regional development level of fabricated buildings accurately. Firstly,based on Potter's "diamond model " and regional coordinated development theory,this paper has designed 5 dimensions evaluation index system,including the scale,technology capacity for production and construction,technological innovation ability,management level and development potential. Then,fuzzy grey matter element( FGME) and combined weighting( CW)have been used to analyze and evaluate the 7-regional level of development of fabricated building industry by collecting data related to the development of fabricated buildings in 31 provinces,China.The result shows that the development of fabricated buildings in different regions is significantly different and trapezoidal grade distribution is also showed on the whole. The development of prefabricated construction industry in eastern China is generally the best,then followed by central,north,southwest,northeast and southern China. The development level of fabricated building industry in northwest China is relatively backward.
As an effective measure for improving the productivity,saving energy and shortening the time limit of the construction industry,the prefabricated building has attracted worldwide concerns and been growing at a high rate in recent years. However,unbalanced development of the fabricated building industry has been becoming more and more prominent in different area. Thus,to make scientific planning of fabricated buildings and promote the modernization of construction industry,it is necessary to carry out the evaluation of the regional development level of fabricated buildings accurately. Firstly,based on Potter's "diamond model " and regional coordinated development theory,this paper has designed 5 dimensions evaluation index system,including the scale,technology capacity for production and construction,technological innovation ability,management level and development potential. Then,fuzzy grey matter element( FGME) and combined weighting( CW)have been used to analyze and evaluate the 7-regional level of development of fabricated building industry by collecting data related to the development of fabricated buildings in 31 provinces,China.The result shows that the development of fabricated buildings in different regions is significantly different and trapezoidal grade distribution is also showed on the whole. The development of prefabricated construction industry in eastern China is generally the best,then followed by central,north,southwest,northeast and southern China. The development level of fabricated building industry in northwest China is relatively backward.
引文
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[19]Caiazza R,Richardson A,Audretsch D.Knowledge effects on competitiveness:From firms to regional advantage[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2015,40:899-909.
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[25]郑淑琴,石海均,孙富学.建筑业竞争力水平的灰色关联综合评价[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):67-69.
[26]杨建仁,刘卫东.基于灰色关联分析和层次分析法的新型工业化水平综合评价---以中部六省为例[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(2):122-132.
[27]葛秋萍,汪明月.产学研协同创新技术转移风险评价研究---基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(10):107-113.
[28]肖建英,谭术魁.基于模糊评价法的征地冲突风险测评[J].统计与决策,2015,(5):44-47.
[29]Taylor J W.Short-term load forecasting with exponentially weighted methods[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(1):458-464.
[30]邱菀华.管理决策熵学与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002.
[31]Roy M,Barman S.Improved gene prediction by principal component analysis based autoregressive YuleWalker method[J].Gene,2016,575:488-497.
[32]Xiao L,Boyd S,Kim S J.Distributed average consensus with least-mean-square deviation[J].Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing,2007,67:33-46.
[33]Eisenberg D T A.Telomere length measurement validity:The coefficient of variation is invalid and cannot be used to compare quantitative polymerase chain reaction and Southern blot telomere length measurement techniques[J].International Journal of Epidemiology,2016,45(4):1295-1298.
[34]钟太勇,杜荣.基于博弈论的新能源汽车补贴策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,(s1):817-822.
[35]徐林明,林志炳,李美娟,等.基于模糊Borda法的动态组合评价方法及其应用研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(2):165-173.
[36]曹黎侠,黄光球,况湘玲.基于粗糙集理论的第三方支付平台的效益问题[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(1):62-68.
[37]陈云翔,董骁雄,项华春,等.基于信息熵的群组聚类组合赋权法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(6):142-146.
[38]郑淑琴,石海均,孙富学.建筑业竞争力水平的灰色关联综合评价[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):67-69.
[39]张炳江.层次分析法及其应用案例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.
[40]何逢标.综合评价方法MATLAB实现[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2010.
[2]Pan W,Gibb A G F,Dainty A R J.Leading UKhousebuilders’utilization of offsite construction methods[J].Building Research and Information,2008,36(1):56-67.
[3]Kim Y W,Han S H,Yi J S,et al.Supply chain cost model for prefabricated building material based on time-driven activity-based costing[J].Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,2016,43(4):287-293.
[4]Spence R,Mulligan H.Sustainable development and the construction industry*[J].Habitat International,1995,19(3):279-292.
[5]贾若愚,徐照,吴晓纯,等.区域建筑产业现代化发展水平评价研究[J].建筑经济,2015,36(2):22-28.
[6]Chen Y,Okudan G E,Riley D R.Decision support for construction method selection in concrete buildings:Prefabrication adoption and optimization[J].Automation in Construction,2010,19:665-675.
[7]Liu P,Li Q,Song L,et al.The index system for the development level evaluation of regional construction industrialization:A case study in jiangsu,China[J].Applied Sciences,2017,7:492-1-18.
[8]Richard R B.Industrialised building systems:Reproduction before automation and robotics[J].Automation in Construction,2005,14:442-451.
[9]Alinaitwe H M,Mwakali J,Hansson B.Assessing the degree of industrialisation in construction-a case of Uganda[J].Journal of Civil Engineering and Management,2006,12(3):221-229.
[10]江红,梁小平,崔晋豫.浅谈中国住宅产业化水平的评价方法[J].青岛建筑工程学院学报,2000,21(4):32-38.
[11]王美华.构建建筑产业现代化综合评价指标体系[J].施工企业管理,2015,(4):53.
[12]刘贵文,邓飞,王曼.中国建筑产业竞争力评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2011,44(7):157-164.
[13]王雪青,潘辉,刘炳胜.基于云模型的中国区域建筑产业竞争力评价研究[J].山西财经大学学报,2012,34(7):55-66.
[14]刘炳胜,申映华,王雪青,等.基于组合模型的中国区域建筑产业竞争力系统评价[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(5):800-806.
[15]关柯,张德群,张兴野.建筑业经济新论(下册)[M].重庆:重庆大学出版社,2007.
[16]Momaya K,Selby K.International competitiveness of the Canadian construction industry:A comparison with Japan and the United States[J].Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering,1998,25:640-652.
[17]Flanagan R,Lu W,Shen L,et al.Competitiveness in construction:A critical review of research[J].Construction Management and Economics,2007,25(9):989-1000.
[18]Lu W,Shen L,Yam M C.Critical success factors for competitiveness of contractors:China study[J].Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2008,134(12):972-982.
[19]Caiazza R,Richardson A,Audretsch D.Knowledge effects on competitiveness:From firms to regional advantage[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2015,40:899-909.
[20]Groák S,Ive G.Economics and technological change:Some implications for the study of the building industry*[J].Habitat International,1986,10(4):115-132.
[21]Zhang X,Skitmore M,Peng Y.Exploring the challenges to industrialized residential building in China[J].Habitat International,2014,41:176-184
[22]王璐,水庆象,吴群琪,等.基于耦合定权和模糊物元分析的高速公路改扩建方案决策[J].统计与决策,2017,(19):60-63.
[23]肖芳淳.模糊灰元优化理论在优选油田开发方案中的应用[J].大庆石油地质与开发,1995,14(3):31-37
[24]曹隽隽,周勇,叶青清,等.基于模糊灰色物元与克里格插值的县级耕地质量分等更新方法研究[J].经济地理,2012,32(11):131-137.
[25]郑淑琴,石海均,孙富学.建筑业竞争力水平的灰色关联综合评价[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):67-69.
[26]杨建仁,刘卫东.基于灰色关联分析和层次分析法的新型工业化水平综合评价---以中部六省为例[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(2):122-132.
[27]葛秋萍,汪明月.产学研协同创新技术转移风险评价研究---基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法[J].科技进步与对策,2015,32(10):107-113.
[28]肖建英,谭术魁.基于模糊评价法的征地冲突风险测评[J].统计与决策,2015,(5):44-47.
[29]Taylor J W.Short-term load forecasting with exponentially weighted methods[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(1):458-464.
[30]邱菀华.管理决策熵学与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2002.
[31]Roy M,Barman S.Improved gene prediction by principal component analysis based autoregressive YuleWalker method[J].Gene,2016,575:488-497.
[32]Xiao L,Boyd S,Kim S J.Distributed average consensus with least-mean-square deviation[J].Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing,2007,67:33-46.
[33]Eisenberg D T A.Telomere length measurement validity:The coefficient of variation is invalid and cannot be used to compare quantitative polymerase chain reaction and Southern blot telomere length measurement techniques[J].International Journal of Epidemiology,2016,45(4):1295-1298.
[34]钟太勇,杜荣.基于博弈论的新能源汽车补贴策略研究[J].中国管理科学,2015,(s1):817-822.
[35]徐林明,林志炳,李美娟,等.基于模糊Borda法的动态组合评价方法及其应用研究[J].中国管理科学,2017,25(2):165-173.
[36]曹黎侠,黄光球,况湘玲.基于粗糙集理论的第三方支付平台的效益问题[J].统计与信息论坛,2016,31(1):62-68.
[37]陈云翔,董骁雄,项华春,等.基于信息熵的群组聚类组合赋权法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(6):142-146.
[38]郑淑琴,石海均,孙富学.建筑业竞争力水平的灰色关联综合评价[J].统计与决策,2012,(2):67-69.
[39]张炳江.层次分析法及其应用案例[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2014.
[40]何逢标.综合评价方法MATLAB实现[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2010.