乡—城、城—城流动人口居留意愿的影响因素研究
|
摘要
为了促进人口流入并融入城市,基于2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,利用逐步回归的方法,从个人、家庭和社会经济三个层面对流动人口的居留意愿进行研究,发现不同因素对不同户籍流动人口居留意愿的影响方向基本一致,但程度有所不同。个人特征中性别、婚姻和教育程度等变量对流动人口居留意愿均有显著影响;家庭特征中子女随迁、自有住房和较高的家庭收入等变量,能够较大地提高流动人口的居留意愿,尤其是自有住房;从社会经济特征的维度看,参加养老保险对流动人口的居留意愿并无显著的促进作用。建议进一步完善流动人口的住房保障制度、随迁家庭的配套政策,并提高其对养老保险的认知度和信任度。
Based on the dynamic data of floating population in 2016, this paper studies floating population's migratory intentions using stepwise regression method from three angles, i. e., personal, family and social economy. The results show that different factors have the same influential direction but with different degrees. Such personal factors as gender, marriage and education produce significant impacts on their intentions; such family factors as migrant workers' relocated children, higher household income, and house ownership in particular, can greatly increase their residing preference; as to social economy, there is no close link between endowment insurance their residing preference. This paper proposes to upgrade housing security system of the floating population, the supporting policies of migrant workers' relocated children, and improve their awareness of and trust in endowment insurance.
Based on the dynamic data of floating population in 2016, this paper studies floating population's migratory intentions using stepwise regression method from three angles, i. e., personal, family and social economy. The results show that different factors have the same influential direction but with different degrees. Such personal factors as gender, marriage and education produce significant impacts on their intentions; such family factors as migrant workers' relocated children, higher household income, and house ownership in particular, can greatly increase their residing preference; as to social economy, there is no close link between endowment insurance their residing preference. This paper proposes to upgrade housing security system of the floating population, the supporting policies of migrant workers' relocated children, and improve their awareness of and trust in endowment insurance.
引文
[1]国家卫生和计划生育委员会流动人口服务管理司.中国流动人口发展报告2017[M].北京:中国人口出版社,2017.
[2]HERBERLE R.The Cause of Rural-Urban Migration a Survey of German Theories[J].The American Journal of Sociology,1938(6):932 950.
[3]JONES H R.Population geography[M].London:Paul Chapman,1990.
[4]孟兆敏,吴瑞君.城市人口居留意愿研究---基于上海、苏州等地调查分析[J].人口与发展,2011(3):11 18.
[5]杨雪,魏洪英.流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制[J].人口研究,2007(5):63 72.
[6]王春兰,丁金宏.流动人口城市居留意愿的影响因素分析[J].南方人口,2007(1):22 29.
[7]洪小良.城市农民工的家庭迁移行为及影响因素研究---以北京市为例[J].中国人口科学,2007(6):42 50.
[8]侯佳伟.流动人口的社会融合对其居留意愿的影响分析[J].人口研究,2009(1):55 61.
[9]蔚志新.分地区流动人口居留意愿影响因素比较研究---基于全国5城市流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].人口与经济,2013(4):12 20.
[10]陶树果,高向东,方中书.乡-城、城-城流动人口社会保险参保率及其影响因素的比较研究---基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测数据[J].西北人口,2018(2):88 95.
[11]李斌.城市住房价值结构化:人口迁移的一种筛选机制[J].中国人口科学,2008(4):53 60.
[12]任媛,安树伟.劳动力迁移、城市化发展与民工荒[J].劳动力问题研究,2011(5):64 68.
[13]卢小君,王丽丽,赵东霞.流动人口的社会融合对其居留意愿的影响分析---大连市为例[J].大连理工大学学报,2012(4):32 37.
[14]杨菊华.城乡差分与内外之别:流动人口社会保障研究[J].人口研究,2011,35(5):8 25.
[2]HERBERLE R.The Cause of Rural-Urban Migration a Survey of German Theories[J].The American Journal of Sociology,1938(6):932 950.
[3]JONES H R.Population geography[M].London:Paul Chapman,1990.
[4]孟兆敏,吴瑞君.城市人口居留意愿研究---基于上海、苏州等地调查分析[J].人口与发展,2011(3):11 18.
[5]杨雪,魏洪英.流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制[J].人口研究,2007(5):63 72.
[6]王春兰,丁金宏.流动人口城市居留意愿的影响因素分析[J].南方人口,2007(1):22 29.
[7]洪小良.城市农民工的家庭迁移行为及影响因素研究---以北京市为例[J].中国人口科学,2007(6):42 50.
[8]侯佳伟.流动人口的社会融合对其居留意愿的影响分析[J].人口研究,2009(1):55 61.
[9]蔚志新.分地区流动人口居留意愿影响因素比较研究---基于全国5城市流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].人口与经济,2013(4):12 20.
[10]陶树果,高向东,方中书.乡-城、城-城流动人口社会保险参保率及其影响因素的比较研究---基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测数据[J].西北人口,2018(2):88 95.
[11]李斌.城市住房价值结构化:人口迁移的一种筛选机制[J].中国人口科学,2008(4):53 60.
[12]任媛,安树伟.劳动力迁移、城市化发展与民工荒[J].劳动力问题研究,2011(5):64 68.
[13]卢小君,王丽丽,赵东霞.流动人口的社会融合对其居留意愿的影响分析---大连市为例[J].大连理工大学学报,2012(4):32 37.
[14]杨菊华.城乡差分与内外之别:流动人口社会保障研究[J].人口研究,2011,35(5):8 25.