新型城镇化有助于缓解雾霾污染吗——来自低碳城市建设的经验证据
|
摘要
基于2003—2016年280个地级市的面板数据,利用双重差分方法评估了低碳城市建设对城市雾霾污染的影响,并运用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)进行了进一步验证。研究结果表明,低碳城市建设能够显著降低城市的雾霾污染,该效应在信息化程度和人力资本水平较高的城市更加明显,而在经济发展和外商直接投资水平较高的城市不够明显。机制检验结果表明,低碳城市建设主要是通过技术效应和环境规制效应来降低雾霾污染。
Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016,the double-difference method was used to evaluate the impact of low-carbon city construction on urban haze pollution,and further verification was performed by double differential propensity score matching method(PSM-DID). The results show that low-carbon city construction can significantly reduce urban smog pollution,which is more obvious in cities with higher informationization level or higher human capital level,but it's invalid in cities with higher economic development level or higher level of foreign direct investment. The results of mechanism verification show that low-carbon city construction has alleviated smog pollution mainly through technical effects and environmental regulation effects.
Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2016,the double-difference method was used to evaluate the impact of low-carbon city construction on urban haze pollution,and further verification was performed by double differential propensity score matching method(PSM-DID). The results show that low-carbon city construction can significantly reduce urban smog pollution,which is more obvious in cities with higher informationization level or higher human capital level,but it's invalid in cities with higher economic development level or higher level of foreign direct investment. The results of mechanism verification show that low-carbon city construction has alleviated smog pollution mainly through technical effects and environmental regulation effects.
引文
[1]Victor Lavy,Avraham Ebenstein,Sefi Roth.The Impact of Short Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution on Cognitive Performance and Human Capital Formation[R].NBER Working Paper,2014.
[2]苗艳青,陈文晶.空气污染和健康需求:Grossan模型的应用[J].世界经济,2010,33(6):140-160.
[3]杨继东,章逸然.空气污染的定价:基于幸福感数据的分析[J].世界经济,2014,37(12):162-188.
[4]吕小康,王丛.空气污染对认知功能与心理健康的损害[J].心理科学进展,2017,25(1):111-120.
[5]Liddle B,S Lung.Age-structure,Urbanization,and Climate Change in Developed Countries:Revisiting STIRPAT for Disaggregated Population and Consumption-related Environmental Impacts[J].Populationand Environment,2010,31(5):317-343.
[6]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.
[7]Gene M Grossman,Alan B Krueger.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995(2).
[8]William A Brock,M Scott Taylor.Economic Growth and the Environment:A Review of Theory and Empirics[J].Handbook of Economic Growth,2005(1).
[9]王敏,黄滢.中国的环境污染与经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(2):557-578.
[10]Arik Levinson.Technology,InternationalTrade,and Pollution from US Manufacturing[J].American Economic Review,2009,99(5):92-2177.
[11]Joseph S Shapiro,Reed Walker.Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining?The Roles of Environmental Regulation,Productivity,and Trade[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(12):3814-3854.
[12]余长林,高宏建.环境管制对中国环境污染的影响——基于隐性经济的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(7):21-35.
[13]Ang J B.CO2Emissions,Research and Technology Transfer in China[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(10):2658-2665.
[14]张连众,朱坦,李慕菡,张伯伟.贸易自由化对中国环境污染的影响分析[J].南开经济研究,2003(3):3-5,30.
[15]Josh Ederington,Arik Levinson,Jenny Minier.Trade Liberalizationand Pollution Havens[J].Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2004,3(2):1-24.
[16]杨仁发.产业集聚能否降低中国环境污染[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):23-29.
[17]Judith M Dean,Mary E Lovely.Trade Growth,Production Fragmentation,and China's Environment[J].China's Growing Role in World Trade,2010.
[18]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
[19]石大千,丁海,卫平,刘建江.智慧城市建设能否降低环境污染[J].中国工业经济,2018(6):117-135.
[20]付允,马永欢,刘怡君,牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3):14-19.
[21]鲍健强,苗阳,陈锋.低碳经济:人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008(4):153-160.
[22]Daron Acemoglu,Philippe Aghion,Leonardo Bursztyn,David Hemous.The Environment and Directed Technical Change[J].American Economic Review,American Economic Association,2012,102(1):131-66.
[23]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,杨莉莉.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):73-88
[24]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018,53(2):20-34.
[25]聂飞,刘海云.FDI、环境污染与经济增长的相关性研究——基于动态联立方程模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2015(2):72-83.
[26]计志英,毛杰,赖小锋.FDI规模对中国环境污染的影响效应研究——基于30个省级面板数据模型的实证检验[J].世界经济研究,2015(3):56-64,128.
[27]白俊红,吕晓红.FDI质量与中国环境污染的降低[J].国际贸易问题,2015(8):72-83.
[28]Kharel G.Impacts of Urbanization on Environmental Resources:A Land Use Planning Perspectivee[D].Arlington:University of Texas,2010.
[29]刘宇.中国城镇化进程的工业污染与规制效应分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014(11):1-3
[30]Satterthwaite D.Environmental Transformations in Cities as They Get Larger,Wealthier and Better Managed[J].Geographical Journal,1997,163(2):216-224.
[31]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014(7):86-114.
[32]文雯,王奇.城市人口规模与环境污染之间的关系——基于中国285个城市面板数据的分析[J].城市问题,2017(9):32-38.
[33]Van Donkelaar,A R V Martin,MBrauer,B L Boys.Use of Satellite Observations for Long-term ExposureAssessment of Global Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2015,123(2):135-143.
[34]李子豪,刘辉煌.FDI的技术效应对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):27-33.
[35]林永生,马洪立.大气污染治理中的规模效应、结构效应与技术效应——以中国工业废气为例[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2013(3):129-136.
[36]郭朝先.产业结构变动对中国碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(7):15-20.
[37]储德银,建克成.财政政策与产业结构调整——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].经济学家,2014(2):80-91.
[38]Baron R M,D A Kenny.The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research Conceptual Strategic,and Statistical Considerations[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
(1)资料来源于国家发展改革委《关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知(发改气候[2010]1587号)》,http://zfxxgk.ndrc.gov.cn/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=1070。
(2)根据国家发改委发布的《关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知》,第一批和第二批一共有36个低碳试点城市,其中北京市、上海市、天津市和重庆市属于直辖市,不属于地级市,因此本文将上述4个城市从样本中剔除。此外,大兴安岭地区和济源市因数据缺失也被剔除,所以最终实验组的低碳试点城市数为30个。
(3)该数据库中的PM2.5数据来自哥伦比亚大学社会经济数据和应用中心发布的基于卫星监测的全球PM2.5浓度平均值的栅格数据(van Donkelaar et al.,2015),并进一步采用ArcGIS软件将此栅格数据解析为中国地级市的PM2.5年均浓度数据。
(4)根据王敏、黄莹(2015)的研究,SO2的大气浓度对工业GDP占比并没有显著影响,这主要是因为,SO2在政府规制环境污染中占有重要地位,历次规划均将SO2作为空气污染的指标,且在“十一五”规划中将SO2纳入了地方政府的绩效考核,实行“环保一票否决制”,因此导致中国历年对空气污染的治理主要放在对SO2的控制上。
[2]苗艳青,陈文晶.空气污染和健康需求:Grossan模型的应用[J].世界经济,2010,33(6):140-160.
[3]杨继东,章逸然.空气污染的定价:基于幸福感数据的分析[J].世界经济,2014,37(12):162-188.
[4]吕小康,王丛.空气污染对认知功能与心理健康的损害[J].心理科学进展,2017,25(1):111-120.
[5]Liddle B,S Lung.Age-structure,Urbanization,and Climate Change in Developed Countries:Revisiting STIRPAT for Disaggregated Population and Consumption-related Environmental Impacts[J].Populationand Environment,2010,31(5):317-343.
[6]张腾飞,杨俊,盛鹏飞.城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(2):47-57.
[7]Gene M Grossman,Alan B Krueger.Economic Growth and the Environment[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995(2).
[8]William A Brock,M Scott Taylor.Economic Growth and the Environment:A Review of Theory and Empirics[J].Handbook of Economic Growth,2005(1).
[9]王敏,黄滢.中国的环境污染与经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(2):557-578.
[10]Arik Levinson.Technology,InternationalTrade,and Pollution from US Manufacturing[J].American Economic Review,2009,99(5):92-2177.
[11]Joseph S Shapiro,Reed Walker.Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining?The Roles of Environmental Regulation,Productivity,and Trade[J].American Economic Review,2018,108(12):3814-3854.
[12]余长林,高宏建.环境管制对中国环境污染的影响——基于隐性经济的视角[J].中国工业经济,2015(7):21-35.
[13]Ang J B.CO2Emissions,Research and Technology Transfer in China[J].Ecological Economics,2009,68(10):2658-2665.
[14]张连众,朱坦,李慕菡,张伯伟.贸易自由化对中国环境污染的影响分析[J].南开经济研究,2003(3):3-5,30.
[15]Josh Ederington,Arik Levinson,Jenny Minier.Trade Liberalizationand Pollution Havens[J].Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2004,3(2):1-24.
[16]杨仁发.产业集聚能否降低中国环境污染[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):23-29.
[17]Judith M Dean,Mary E Lovely.Trade Growth,Production Fragmentation,and China's Environment[J].China's Growing Role in World Trade,2010.
[18]许和连,邓玉萍.外商直接投资导致了中国的环境污染吗?——基于中国省际面板数据的空间计量研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):30-43.
[19]石大千,丁海,卫平,刘建江.智慧城市建设能否降低环境污染[J].中国工业经济,2018(6):117-135.
[20]付允,马永欢,刘怡君,牛文元.低碳经济的发展模式研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008(3):14-19.
[21]鲍健强,苗阳,陈锋.低碳经济:人类经济发展方式的新变革[J].中国工业经济,2008(4):153-160.
[22]Daron Acemoglu,Philippe Aghion,Leonardo Bursztyn,David Hemous.The Environment and Directed Technical Change[J].American Economic Review,American Economic Association,2012,102(1):131-66.
[23]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,杨莉莉.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016,51(9):73-88
[24]陈诗一,陈登科.雾霾污染、政府治理与经济高质量发展[J].经济研究,2018,53(2):20-34.
[25]聂飞,刘海云.FDI、环境污染与经济增长的相关性研究——基于动态联立方程模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2015(2):72-83.
[26]计志英,毛杰,赖小锋.FDI规模对中国环境污染的影响效应研究——基于30个省级面板数据模型的实证检验[J].世界经济研究,2015(3):56-64,128.
[27]白俊红,吕晓红.FDI质量与中国环境污染的降低[J].国际贸易问题,2015(8):72-83.
[28]Kharel G.Impacts of Urbanization on Environmental Resources:A Land Use Planning Perspectivee[D].Arlington:University of Texas,2010.
[29]刘宇.中国城镇化进程的工业污染与规制效应分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014(11):1-3
[30]Satterthwaite D.Environmental Transformations in Cities as They Get Larger,Wealthier and Better Managed[J].Geographical Journal,1997,163(2):216-224.
[31]陆铭,冯皓.集聚与减排:城市规模差距影响工业污染强度的经验研究[J].世界经济,2014(7):86-114.
[32]文雯,王奇.城市人口规模与环境污染之间的关系——基于中国285个城市面板数据的分析[J].城市问题,2017(9):32-38.
[33]Van Donkelaar,A R V Martin,MBrauer,B L Boys.Use of Satellite Observations for Long-term ExposureAssessment of Global Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2015,123(2):135-143.
[34]李子豪,刘辉煌.FDI的技术效应对碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(12):27-33.
[35]林永生,马洪立.大气污染治理中的规模效应、结构效应与技术效应——以中国工业废气为例[J].北京师范大学学报(社会科学版),2013(3):129-136.
[36]郭朝先.产业结构变动对中国碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(7):15-20.
[37]储德银,建克成.财政政策与产业结构调整——基于总量与结构效应双重视角的实证分析[J].经济学家,2014(2):80-91.
[38]Baron R M,D A Kenny.The Moderator-mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research Conceptual Strategic,and Statistical Considerations[J].Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
(1)资料来源于国家发展改革委《关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知(发改气候[2010]1587号)》,http://zfxxgk.ndrc.gov.cn/web/iteminfo.jsp?id=1070。
(2)根据国家发改委发布的《关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知》,第一批和第二批一共有36个低碳试点城市,其中北京市、上海市、天津市和重庆市属于直辖市,不属于地级市,因此本文将上述4个城市从样本中剔除。此外,大兴安岭地区和济源市因数据缺失也被剔除,所以最终实验组的低碳试点城市数为30个。
(3)该数据库中的PM2.5数据来自哥伦比亚大学社会经济数据和应用中心发布的基于卫星监测的全球PM2.5浓度平均值的栅格数据(van Donkelaar et al.,2015),并进一步采用ArcGIS软件将此栅格数据解析为中国地级市的PM2.5年均浓度数据。
(4)根据王敏、黄莹(2015)的研究,SO2的大气浓度对工业GDP占比并没有显著影响,这主要是因为,SO2在政府规制环境污染中占有重要地位,历次规划均将SO2作为空气污染的指标,且在“十一五”规划中将SO2纳入了地方政府的绩效考核,实行“环保一票否决制”,因此导致中国历年对空气污染的治理主要放在对SO2的控制上。