基于缺水率模型的蓄水型水田灌区旱情预报
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摘要
频发的干旱灾害制约着我国社会经济的发展,其中农业干旱灾害的危害尤为明显。以江西省莲花县楼梯蹬水库灌区、罗卜冲水库灌区、河江水库灌区这3个以蓄水型水源为主的水田灌区为研究对象,在考虑水利工程对农业干旱影响的基础上,通过实地调查走访、理论联系实践的方式建立了各灌区的缺水率模型,以预报其农业旱情。结果表明,分析得出的水利用系数与实地调查结果基本吻合;且经对比计算,缺水率模型比连续无雨日数更适合评估水田灌区干旱程度,说明该模型可运用于以蓄水水源为主的水田灌区农业旱情的预测。
The social and economic development of China is impeded by frequent drought disasters,especially the agricultural drought disaster. Taking four paddy field irrigation areas that are depend on water-storage sources,the Loutideng reservoir irrigation area,Luobochong reservoir irrigation area and Hejiang reservoir irrigation area,Lianhua County Jiangxi Province,as the study object,through field investigation and linking theory with practice,a reasonable water deficiency ratio model was established to forecast the agricultural drought by considering the influence of water conservancy projects on agriculture drought. The calculated water utilization ratio is consistent with field survey. Compared with the method based on continuous days without rain,the water deficiency ratio model is more suitable for drought degree evaluation of the paddy field irrigation area. So the presented model can be applied to the drought forecast of paddy field irrigation district that uses storage water as a main source.
The social and economic development of China is impeded by frequent drought disasters,especially the agricultural drought disaster. Taking four paddy field irrigation areas that are depend on water-storage sources,the Loutideng reservoir irrigation area,Luobochong reservoir irrigation area and Hejiang reservoir irrigation area,Lianhua County Jiangxi Province,as the study object,through field investigation and linking theory with practice,a reasonable water deficiency ratio model was established to forecast the agricultural drought by considering the influence of water conservancy projects on agriculture drought. The calculated water utilization ratio is consistent with field survey. Compared with the method based on continuous days without rain,the water deficiency ratio model is more suitable for drought degree evaluation of the paddy field irrigation area. So the presented model can be applied to the drought forecast of paddy field irrigation district that uses storage water as a main source.
引文
[1]国家防汛抗旱总指挥部,中华人民共和国水利部.中国水旱灾害公报2014(2015年7月第1版)[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2015.
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[4]王玉玺,田武文,杨文峰,等.陕西省旱涝季度、年度预报和集成预报方法[J].高原气象,1998,17(4):427-736.
[5]王密侠,胡彦华,熊运章.陕西省作物旱情预报系统的研究[J].西北水资源与水工程,1996,7(2):52-56.
[6]普布卓玛,周顺武.均生函数预报模型在西藏汛期旱涝预报中的应用[J].西藏科技,2002,109(5):43-46.
[7]Nathaniel B G.A sensitivity analysis of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1991(27):797-807.
[8]王斌,张展羽,魏永霞,等.基于投影寻踪的农业基本旱情评估[J].农业工程学报,2009(4):157-162.
[9]王斌,付强,王忠波,等.基于降水随机模拟的旱作区农业旱情等级划分方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(3):167-170.
[10]曹基富.缺水率法预测雷州半岛农业旱情设想[J].广东水利水电,2013(8):45-47.
[11]Wu J,Zhou L,Liu M,et al.Establishing and assessing the Integrated Surface Drought Index for agricultural drought monitoring in mid-eastern China[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2013(23):397-410.
[12]Jian J W,Zhou L,Xin Y M,et al.Drought monitoring and analysis in China based on the Integrated Surface Drought Index[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo information,2015(41):23-33.
[13]刘昊,陈国威,张智酝,等.基于多尺度SPEI指数的哈巴河地区多年干旱研究[J].人民长江,2016,47(S2):37-40.
[14]金菊良,杨齐祺,周玉良,等.干旱分析技术的研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016(2):1-15.
[15]中国水利水电科学研究院.旱情等级标准SL424-2008[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[2]耿鸿江.干旱定义述评[J].灾害学,1993,8(1):19-22.
[3]孙荣强.干旱定义及其指标评述[J].灾害学,1994,9(1):17-22.
[4]王玉玺,田武文,杨文峰,等.陕西省旱涝季度、年度预报和集成预报方法[J].高原气象,1998,17(4):427-736.
[5]王密侠,胡彦华,熊运章.陕西省作物旱情预报系统的研究[J].西北水资源与水工程,1996,7(2):52-56.
[6]普布卓玛,周顺武.均生函数预报模型在西藏汛期旱涝预报中的应用[J].西藏科技,2002,109(5):43-46.
[7]Nathaniel B G.A sensitivity analysis of the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index[J].Water Resources Bulletin,1991(27):797-807.
[8]王斌,张展羽,魏永霞,等.基于投影寻踪的农业基本旱情评估[J].农业工程学报,2009(4):157-162.
[9]王斌,付强,王忠波,等.基于降水随机模拟的旱作区农业旱情等级划分方法[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(3):167-170.
[10]曹基富.缺水率法预测雷州半岛农业旱情设想[J].广东水利水电,2013(8):45-47.
[11]Wu J,Zhou L,Liu M,et al.Establishing and assessing the Integrated Surface Drought Index for agricultural drought monitoring in mid-eastern China[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2013(23):397-410.
[12]Jian J W,Zhou L,Xin Y M,et al.Drought monitoring and analysis in China based on the Integrated Surface Drought Index[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geo information,2015(41):23-33.
[13]刘昊,陈国威,张智酝,等.基于多尺度SPEI指数的哈巴河地区多年干旱研究[J].人民长江,2016,47(S2):37-40.
[14]金菊良,杨齐祺,周玉良,等.干旱分析技术的研究进展[J].华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016(2):1-15.
[15]中国水利水电科学研究院.旱情等级标准SL424-2008[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.