气象干旱指数在中国的适应性研究进展
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摘要
在全球变暖背景下,中国极端干旱事件频繁发生,其强度和范围都不断增大,这不但给国民经济特别是农业生产等带来巨大损失,还会造成水资源短缺、荒漠化加剧、沙尘暴频发等诸多深远的不利影响。为进一步提高干旱监测、预测、评估和决策服务等方面的技术水平,以气象干旱为对象,对常用的气象干旱指标在中国的时空适应性进行了系统总结。首先,从指数的计算原理及考虑要素的角度回顾了国内常用干旱指数及其特点,这些指标主要分为两类:一类是只考虑单一因子的干旱指标,另一类是考虑多要素的干旱指标。其次,系统归纳了这些干旱指数在我国不同区域、不同季节的适应性,阐述了对现有干旱指数的进一步修正、改进及其应用效果,并对影响干旱指数适应性的主要因素进行探讨。最后,提出目前干旱研究领域存在争议的问题,探讨今后在气象干旱监测指标及其适应性研究中应重点解决的关键科学问题及发展趋势。
The frequency,intensity and influence region of extreme drought events are increasing under the global warming background,which would lead to not only enormous losses on national economy especially on agricultural production but also profound adverse impacts on water resources shortage,desertification exacerbation and frequent sand storm. In this paper,we focused on meteorological drought,then the spatiotemporal adaptability of commonly-used meteorological drought indices in China were systematically summarized in order to further improve technological level on drought monitoring,predicting,assessing and decision-making services. Firstly,commonly-used meteorological drought indices in China and their characteristics were reviewed in terms of calculation principle and elements,the results indicated that these indices could be classified into two categories: one category just considered precipitation and the other combined multi-factors in calculating. Secondly,adaptability of meteorological drought indices in different regions and seasons were summed up in China. In addition,amendments and improvements of these indices and their application effects were concluded. Furthermore,main factors impacting adaptability of these indices were investigated. Finally,controversial issues in research field of drought were proposed and key scientific problem which needed to be dealt with and development tendency were discussed on study area of meteorological drought indices and their adaptability in further.
The frequency,intensity and influence region of extreme drought events are increasing under the global warming background,which would lead to not only enormous losses on national economy especially on agricultural production but also profound adverse impacts on water resources shortage,desertification exacerbation and frequent sand storm. In this paper,we focused on meteorological drought,then the spatiotemporal adaptability of commonly-used meteorological drought indices in China were systematically summarized in order to further improve technological level on drought monitoring,predicting,assessing and decision-making services. Firstly,commonly-used meteorological drought indices in China and their characteristics were reviewed in terms of calculation principle and elements,the results indicated that these indices could be classified into two categories: one category just considered precipitation and the other combined multi-factors in calculating. Secondly,adaptability of meteorological drought indices in different regions and seasons were summed up in China. In addition,amendments and improvements of these indices and their application effects were concluded. Furthermore,main factors impacting adaptability of these indices were investigated. Finally,controversial issues in research field of drought were proposed and key scientific problem which needed to be dealt with and development tendency were discussed on study area of meteorological drought indices and their adaptability in further.
引文
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