基于信息扩散和分形技术的玉米干旱特征分析
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摘要
为研究区域农业干旱时空分布特征,以及干旱对作物产量的影响,建立了基于信息扩散和分形技术的农业干旱特征量化分析模型。以西安市为典型研究区,根据1951—2010年降水、气温资料和1949—2015年玉米产量等数据,利用该文提出的评估指标和技术方法对西安市玉米干旱特征分析计算,验证了模型的有效性。结果表明:1)60年来,西安市玉米共发生30次气象干旱,平均2年1次。2001—2010年以来,频次增多,平均1.25年1次。气象干旱发生的时间具有分形特征,经大量试验,发现当计算样本数量约14时,重标极差方法可取得很好效果。2)玉米气象干旱的程度呈现很缓慢上升趋势,Hurst指数0.930 7,而玉米趋势产量波动上升,玉米当前(2011—2015年)平均趋势产量为5 468 kg/hm~2,作物干旱程度(减产率)呈缓慢下降趋势。3)玉米气象干旱程度和作物干旱程度相关性不明显,但两者变化周期基本相同,经信息扩散技术处理后,趋势呈现明显波峰、波谷交替变化。4)预测西安市2023年(第40个干旱年)气象干旱程度约1.2,按照当前的抗旱能力和技术水平,产量损失估计约1.35%,预估玉米单产约5 394 kg/hm~2。该研究尝试基于信息扩散和分形技术对西安市玉米干旱发生时间和程度的特征进行分析,为该地区玉米干旱防灾减灾提供技术参考。
It is significant to research the drought occurring and extent regularities to provide technical supports for disasters prevention. The new meteorological drought evaluation index was suggested, which fully considered the matching degree between precipitation process and crop water requirement. Based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010, the meteorological drought occurring features for corn in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province were analyzed by the fractal analysis method. Meanwhile, the crop production loss caused by drought was calculated based on information diffusion technology, according to the unit yield data of corn in Xi'an from 1949 to 2015. Firstly, the values of meteorological drought extent for corn in historical year were calculated by the new meteorological drought index. According to the rescaled range analysis method, the trend values of meteorological drought extent for corn were calculated and the time characteristics were analyzed. The occurrence time of meteorological drought had fractal characteristics. The rescaled range method could achieve good results when the number of samples was about 14 according to a large number of tests. In the past 60 years, the meteorological droughts occurred for 30 times in Xi'an, once every 2 years on average. From 2001 to 2010, the frequency increased to once every 1.25 years on average. The extent of meteorological drought for corn mainly showed a very slow upward trend, and the Hurst index for meteorological drought extent sequence was 0.930 7. Secondly, according to the moving average method improved by information diffusion technology, the values of trend production of corn were calculated. The tendency of trend production of corn was described by information diffusion regression method. On basis of trend production calculation, the values of yield reduction rate of corn that were considered to reflect the extent of crop drought were analyzed by information diffusion fitting technology. The trend yield of corn increased in fluctuation, and the average trend yield of corn from 2011 to 2015 was 5 468 kg/hm~2. The crop drought degree showed a slow downward trend. Comparing the extent of meteorological drought and the features of crop drought for corn in Xi'an, it was found that the correlation between the meteorological drought degree of corn and the drought degree of crops was not obvious, but their cycles of change were basically the same, and after treatment by using information diffusion technology, the trend presented a feature of alternation of obvious peaks and troughs. Finally, the meteorological drought degree in Xi'an in 2023, which is about the fortieth drought year, is estimated to be about 1.2. The yield loss is estimated at about 1.35%, according to the current drought resistance ability and technical level, and the estimated corn yield per unit area is about 5 394 kg/hm~2. This research is of guiding implications to the prevention of disaster and yield reduction of corn in Xi'an City.
It is significant to research the drought occurring and extent regularities to provide technical supports for disasters prevention. The new meteorological drought evaluation index was suggested, which fully considered the matching degree between precipitation process and crop water requirement. Based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010, the meteorological drought occurring features for corn in Xi'an City, Shaanxi Province were analyzed by the fractal analysis method. Meanwhile, the crop production loss caused by drought was calculated based on information diffusion technology, according to the unit yield data of corn in Xi'an from 1949 to 2015. Firstly, the values of meteorological drought extent for corn in historical year were calculated by the new meteorological drought index. According to the rescaled range analysis method, the trend values of meteorological drought extent for corn were calculated and the time characteristics were analyzed. The occurrence time of meteorological drought had fractal characteristics. The rescaled range method could achieve good results when the number of samples was about 14 according to a large number of tests. In the past 60 years, the meteorological droughts occurred for 30 times in Xi'an, once every 2 years on average. From 2001 to 2010, the frequency increased to once every 1.25 years on average. The extent of meteorological drought for corn mainly showed a very slow upward trend, and the Hurst index for meteorological drought extent sequence was 0.930 7. Secondly, according to the moving average method improved by information diffusion technology, the values of trend production of corn were calculated. The tendency of trend production of corn was described by information diffusion regression method. On basis of trend production calculation, the values of yield reduction rate of corn that were considered to reflect the extent of crop drought were analyzed by information diffusion fitting technology. The trend yield of corn increased in fluctuation, and the average trend yield of corn from 2011 to 2015 was 5 468 kg/hm~2. The crop drought degree showed a slow downward trend. Comparing the extent of meteorological drought and the features of crop drought for corn in Xi'an, it was found that the correlation between the meteorological drought degree of corn and the drought degree of crops was not obvious, but their cycles of change were basically the same, and after treatment by using information diffusion technology, the trend presented a feature of alternation of obvious peaks and troughs. Finally, the meteorological drought degree in Xi'an in 2023, which is about the fortieth drought year, is estimated to be about 1.2. The yield loss is estimated at about 1.35%, according to the current drought resistance ability and technical level, and the estimated corn yield per unit area is about 5 394 kg/hm~2. This research is of guiding implications to the prevention of disaster and yield reduction of corn in Xi'an City.
引文
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[4]姚玉璧,张存杰,郑振镛,等.气象、农业干旱指标综述[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(1):185-189.Yao Yubi,Zhang Cunjie,Zhen Zhenyong,et al.Overview of meteorological and agricultural drought indices[J].Agricultural research in the arid areas,2007,25(1):185-189.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]李茂松,李森,李育慧.中国近50年旱灾灾情分析[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(1):8-11.Li Maosong,Li Sen,Li Yuhui.Studies on drought in the past50 years in China[J].Agricultural Meteorology,2003,24(1):8-11.(in Chinese with English abstract)
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[7]李柏贞,周广胜.干旱指标研究进展[J].生态学报,2014,34(5):1043-1052.Li Baizhen,Zhou Guangsheng.Advance in the study on drought index[J].Acta Ecological Sinica,2014,34(1):1043-1052.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[8]何斌,王全九,吴迪,等.基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(1):219-227.He Bin,Wang Qiujiu,Wu Di,et al.Agricultural drought risk assessment in Shaanxi province using principal component analysis and AHP[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2017,35(1):219-227.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]张强,潘学标,王得军,等.干旱[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:6-7.
[10]陈晓楠.农业干旱灾害风险管理理论与技术[D].西安:西安理工大学,2008.Chen xiaonan.Theory and Technology of Risk Management for Agricultural Drought Disaster[D].Xi’an:Xi’an University of Technology,2008.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):26-33.Ju Xiasheng,Yang Xianwei,Chen Lijuan,et al.Research on determination of station indices and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1997,8(1):26-33.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]Moran M S,Clarke T R,Inoue Y,et al.Estimating crop water deficit using the relation between surface-air temperatature and spectral vegetation index[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,1994,49:246-263.
[13]周玉良,刘立,周平,等.基于帕尔默旱度模式的干旱识别及其特征值频率分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(23):174-184.Zhou Yuliang,Liu Li,Zhou Ping,et al.Identification of drought and frequency analysis of drought characteristics based on palmer drought severity index model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2014,30(23):174-184.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]孙荣强.旱情评定与灾情指标之探讨[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(3):49-55.Sun Rongqiang.Drought evaluation and disaster index[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1994,3(3):49-55.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]王密侠,马成军,蔡焕杰.农业干旱指标研究与进展[J].干旱地区农业研究,1998,16(3):119-124.Wang Mixia,Ma Chengjun,Cai Huanjie.Research progress in agricultural drought index[J].Agricultural Research in Arid Area,1998,16(3):119-124.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]邱林,陈晓楠,段春青,等.农业干旱程度评估指标的量化分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2004,23(3):34-37.Qiu Lin,Chen Xiaonan,Duan Chunqing,et al.Qualitative analysis of drought extent for agricultural[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2004,23(3):34-37.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17]陈晓楠,段春青,刘昌明,等.基于两层土壤计算模式的农业干旱风险评估模型[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(9):51-55.Chen Xiaonan,Duan Chunqing,Liu Changming,et al.Model of risk assessment for agricultural drought based on two-layer soil computing model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2009,25(9):51-55.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]Wu H,Hayes M J,Weiss A,et al.An evaluation of the standardize precipitation index,the China-Z index and the statistical Z-Score[J].International Journal of Climatology,2001,21(6):745-758.
[19]高晓容,王春乙,张继权,等.近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(12):101-109.Gao Xiaorong,Wang Chunyi,Zhang Jiquan,et al.Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering(Transactions of the CSAE),2012,28(12):101-109.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]Vicenteserrano S M,Begueria S,Lopezmoreno J I.Amultiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[21]史印山,王玉珍,池俊成,等.河北平原气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1444-1447.Shi Yinshang,Wang Yuzhen,Chi Juncheng,et al.Impact of climate change on winter wheat production in the Hebei Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2008,16(6):1444-1447.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]郝立生,吴雁,王荣英.海河低平原春季气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(4):20-24.Hao Lisheng,Wu Yan,Wang Rongying.Impact of spring climate change on wheat yield in Lower Haihe Plain[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2007,30(4):20-24.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23]谭方颖,王建林,郑昌玲,等.华北冬小麦干旱产量损失评估方法[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(6):696-702.Tan Fangying,Wang Jianlin,Zheng Changlin,et al.Evaluation method for winter wheat yield loss of drought disaster in North China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology2013,34(6):696-702.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[24]丁贤法,李巧媛,胡国贤.云南省近500年旱涝灾害时间序列的分形研究[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):76-80.Ding Xianfa,Li Qiaoyuan,Hu Guoxian.Fractal study on time series of drought and flood disasters of the recent 500years in Yunnan province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):76-80.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2001:66-67.
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