影响南方农业干旱灾损率的气候要素关键期特征
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摘要
我国南方地区是全国粮食主要产区,在全球气候变化背景下近年来该区域干旱灾害不断加剧,农业旱灾损失十分突出,异常特征也比较明显.然而,对于我国南方农业旱灾损失的变化特征及其受干旱致灾因素的影响机理至今并不十分清楚,这严重影响了对南方农业旱灾规律的深入认识及其影响程度的客观评估.鉴于此,利用我国南方农业干旱灾情实况、农作物种植面积、气象干旱监测指数和常规气象要素等相关资料,系统分析了中国南方地区近50年来农业旱灾综合损失率变化特征及其与气候致灾因子的关系.分析发现:南方地区近50年来农业旱灾综合损失率明显增加,西南比华南和东南增加更为明显.而且,由于农作物各个生长阶段对气候要素的依赖程度不同及气候要素的非均匀季节分布特征,农业旱灾损失率主要受关键期的气象干旱、降水和温度等气候要素变化的影响,而其他时段气候要素变化对农业旱灾损失率影响并不明显.因此,南方地区农业旱灾损失率与关键期气候要素的拟合关系要明显好于与全年气候要素的关系,并且与关键期气候要素的多因子拟合关系与单因子拟合关系相比更具有明显的优势.同时,对这种多因子关系建立的农业旱灾损失率评估模型进行交叉检验的相关性、误差水平、信度均比较理想,表明该模型对估算南方地区农业旱灾损失率具有较好的效果.该文研究结果对于发展我国南方农业干旱灾损评估方法具有重要科学参考意义.
Southern China is the nation's major grain-producing areas. In recent years, under the background of global climate change, regional drought disasters have been increased, and caused serious agricultural drought loss and obvious anomaly characteristics. However,the variation characteristics of agricultural drought loss and drought hazard mechanism are still unclear in south China, which seriously affects the in-depth understanding of southern agriculture drought and its assessments. Therefore, based on agricultural drought disaster conditions, crop acreage, meteorological drought monitoring index and conventional meteorological factors and other related data, systematical and comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate variation and its relationship with climateformative factors have been analyzed in recent 50 years. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is used as an agricultural drought disaster or risk characteristics loss severity index. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is an integrated index that can reflect severity of loss caused by agricultural drought disaster and established by drought-affected crop planting area at different levels and planting area. The results showed that comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate increased obviously and with a rate of about 2.5%, the relative increased rate reached to as high as 80%. Agricultural drought disasters loss has been increased seriously and doughty disasters risk also has been increased more higher than before, southwest is more apparently than south and southeast.With respect to spatial distribution, probability of climate tendency rate for comprehensive loss rate in south China ranges from 0.1%/10 a to 1.8%/10 a. In addition, increase in climate tendency rate in the southwest is more obvious than that in the south and southeast. And, as a result of crop growth stages on the climate elements in dependence on different season and climate factors of non-uniform distribution characteristics, agricultural drought loss rate is mainly affected by key period meteorological drought and the effects of climate change, mainly precipitation and temperature. As for precipitation, 6 months including April, May, June, July,August and October serve as key impacting periods. As for temperature, 5 months including January, June, July, August and October serve as key impacting periods. As for MCI, only two months including July and August serve as key impacting periods. But other climatic factors change is not obvious influence on agricultural drought loss rate. In south China, key impacting periods of MCI coincide with key growth phases of most crops; common key impacting periods of temperature and precipitation coincide with major growth phases of most crops in south China; key impacting periods of precipitation coincide with major or key growth phases of some crops; while key impacting periods of temperature coincide with key periods for overwintering of winter wheat. As a result,the fitting relationship between the south agricultural drought loss rate and the critical period climate factor is much better than its relationship with throughout annual climate, and more key climate factors has more obvious advantages in fitting relationship compared with single factor. Such multi-factor relationship can not only describe the disaster-causing effect of meteorological drought, but also reflect the roles played by severe evapotranspiration and soaking rain processes on drought disaster-causing process. Meanwhile, the agricultural drought loss assessment model with multiple factor relationship had been done for cross validation method, correlation, error level and reliability are the relevance of the ideal, which indicated that the model is an optional reliable and objective model for evaluating the impact of drought disasters on agricultural yield in south China or estimation on risks of agricultural drought disasters in future climate scenarios. The study results have important scientific reference significance for the development of south China agriculture dry drought damage assessment method.
Southern China is the nation's major grain-producing areas. In recent years, under the background of global climate change, regional drought disasters have been increased, and caused serious agricultural drought loss and obvious anomaly characteristics. However,the variation characteristics of agricultural drought loss and drought hazard mechanism are still unclear in south China, which seriously affects the in-depth understanding of southern agriculture drought and its assessments. Therefore, based on agricultural drought disaster conditions, crop acreage, meteorological drought monitoring index and conventional meteorological factors and other related data, systematical and comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate variation and its relationship with climateformative factors have been analyzed in recent 50 years. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is used as an agricultural drought disaster or risk characteristics loss severity index. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is an integrated index that can reflect severity of loss caused by agricultural drought disaster and established by drought-affected crop planting area at different levels and planting area. The results showed that comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate increased obviously and with a rate of about 2.5%, the relative increased rate reached to as high as 80%. Agricultural drought disasters loss has been increased seriously and doughty disasters risk also has been increased more higher than before, southwest is more apparently than south and southeast.With respect to spatial distribution, probability of climate tendency rate for comprehensive loss rate in south China ranges from 0.1%/10 a to 1.8%/10 a. In addition, increase in climate tendency rate in the southwest is more obvious than that in the south and southeast. And, as a result of crop growth stages on the climate elements in dependence on different season and climate factors of non-uniform distribution characteristics, agricultural drought loss rate is mainly affected by key period meteorological drought and the effects of climate change, mainly precipitation and temperature. As for precipitation, 6 months including April, May, June, July,August and October serve as key impacting periods. As for temperature, 5 months including January, June, July, August and October serve as key impacting periods. As for MCI, only two months including July and August serve as key impacting periods. But other climatic factors change is not obvious influence on agricultural drought loss rate. In south China, key impacting periods of MCI coincide with key growth phases of most crops; common key impacting periods of temperature and precipitation coincide with major growth phases of most crops in south China; key impacting periods of precipitation coincide with major or key growth phases of some crops; while key impacting periods of temperature coincide with key periods for overwintering of winter wheat. As a result,the fitting relationship between the south agricultural drought loss rate and the critical period climate factor is much better than its relationship with throughout annual climate, and more key climate factors has more obvious advantages in fitting relationship compared with single factor. Such multi-factor relationship can not only describe the disaster-causing effect of meteorological drought, but also reflect the roles played by severe evapotranspiration and soaking rain processes on drought disaster-causing process. Meanwhile, the agricultural drought loss assessment model with multiple factor relationship had been done for cross validation method, correlation, error level and reliability are the relevance of the ideal, which indicated that the model is an optional reliable and objective model for evaluating the impact of drought disasters on agricultural yield in south China or estimation on risks of agricultural drought disasters in future climate scenarios. The study results have important scientific reference significance for the development of south China agriculture dry drought damage assessment method.
引文
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13 Zhang Q,Yao Y B,Wang Y,et al.Risk characteristics and control technology measures of drought disaster in southern China(in Chinese).Acta Ecol Sin,2017,37:7206-7218[张强,姚玉璧,王莺,等.中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控技术对策.生态学报,2017,37:7206-7218]
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15 Huang H P.Charateristics and causes of drought in China from 1949 to 2007(in Chinese).J Arid Land Resour Environ,2010,11:94-98[黄会平.1949~2007年全国干旱灾害特征、成因及减灾对策.干旱区资源与环境,2010,11:94-98]
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18 Wang Z,He F,Fang W,et al.Assessment of physical vulnerability to agricultural drought in China.Nat Hazards,2013,67:645-657
19 Gunda T,Hornberger G M,Gilligan J M.Spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural drought in Sri Lanka:1881-2010.Int J Climatol,2016,36:563-575
20 Yuan X C,Tang B J,Wei Y M,et al.China’s regional drought risk under climate change:A two-stage process assessment approach.Nat Hazards,2015,76:667-684
21 Huang C F,Liu X L,Zhou G X,et al.Agriculture natural disaster risk assessment method according to the historic disaster data.J Nat Disast,1998,7:1-9
22 Zhang Q,Han L,Jia J,et al.Management of drought risk under global warming.Theor Appl Climatol,2016,125:187-196
23 He B,LüA,Wu J,et al.Drought hazard assessment and spatial characteristics analysis in China.J Geogr Sci,2011,21:235-249
24 Qiang Z,Lanying H,Jingjing L,et al.North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts.Theor Appl Climatol,2018,131:719-732
25 Han L Y,Zhang Q,Yao Y B,et al.Characteristics and origins of drought disasters in southwest China in nearly 60 years(in Chinese).Acta Geogr Sci,2014,69:632-639[韩兰英,张强,姚玉璧,等.近60年中国西南地区干旱灾害规律与成因.地理学报,2014,69:632-639]
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28 Huang J P,Ran J J,Ji M X.Prelimary analysis of the flood disaster over the arid and semiarid regions in China(in Chinese).Acta Meteor Sin,2014,72:1096-1107[黄建平,冉津江,季明霞.中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析.气象学报,2014,72:1096-1107]
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