张家口坝上高寒区近53年霜冻变化特征及其对农业的影响
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摘要
利用1965—2017年张家口坝上高寒区康保、沽源、尚义和张北4个气象站逐日最低气温资料,运用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验法对该地区初(终)霜冻日和无霜期变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,张家口坝上高寒区有平均初霜冻日推迟、平均终霜冻日提早、无霜期延长的趋势,但是还存在一定的不稳定性,平均终霜日1987—2012年几乎以等振幅波动性变化;平均终霜冻日进入21世纪后出现突变现象,突变几率明显增大。
Based on daily minimum temperature data of 4 meteorological stations including Kangbao, Guyuan,Shangyi and Zhangbei from 1965 to2017 in high-cold region of Bashang in Zhangjiakou, the climate change characteristics of the first and last frost date and frost-free period were analyzed by using one-dimensional linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test method.The results showed that the average first frost date had a delaying trend and the situation was quite the reverse for the average last frost in Bashang. Moreover,the frost-free period was extended. The first frost date had significantly delayed,but there was still some instability, the average last frost date fluctuated almost by equal amplitude from 1987 to 2012.The average last frost date had a sudden change, and the probability of mutation increased significantly in the 21 st century.
Based on daily minimum temperature data of 4 meteorological stations including Kangbao, Guyuan,Shangyi and Zhangbei from 1965 to2017 in high-cold region of Bashang in Zhangjiakou, the climate change characteristics of the first and last frost date and frost-free period were analyzed by using one-dimensional linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test method.The results showed that the average first frost date had a delaying trend and the situation was quite the reverse for the average last frost in Bashang. Moreover,the frost-free period was extended. The first frost date had significantly delayed,but there was still some instability, the average last frost date fluctuated almost by equal amplitude from 1987 to 2012.The average last frost date had a sudden change, and the probability of mutation increased significantly in the 21 st century.
引文
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[3]王绍武,蔡静宁,朱锦红,等.中国气候变化的研究[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2):137-145.
[4]EASTERLING D R.Recent changes in the frost days and the frost free season in the United States[J].Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society,2002,83(9):1327-1332.
[5]BONSAL B R,ZHANG X,VINCENT L A,et al.Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature over Canada[J].Journal of Climate,2001,14(5):1959-1976.
[6]HEINO R,BRáZDIL E.F RLAND H,et al.Progress in the study of climate extremes in Northern and central Europe[J].Climate Change,1999,42(1):15l-181.
[7]叶殿秀,张勇.1961—2007年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):661-664.
[8]李凤云,王玉山,吴泽新,等.鲁西北霜冻日期变化特征及防御措施[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2010,46(S1):126-128.
[9]杜春英,李帅,郭建平,等.东北三省玉米初霜冻时空分布特征及预报方法探讨[J].安徽农业科学,2010,38(1):237-240.
[10]陈乾金,张水山.华北异常初(终)霜冻气候特征的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):33-39.
[11]陈乾金,夏洪星,张水山.我国江淮流域近40年异常初终霜冻的分析[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(1):50-56.
[12]刘爱梅,李景宇,苗志成.蔬菜作物需水与节水灌溉气象服务[J].气象科技,2010,38(3):373-376.
[13]刘明亮,陈百明.我国近期粮食生产的波动及其与农业自然灾害发生状况的相关分析[J].灾害学,2000(12):78-85.
[14]黄山江,刘星燕,孙跃飞,等.一次强降温天气对杏扁的冻害分析及防御思考[J].湖北农业科学,2012,51(20):4503-4506.
[15]刘爱梅,苗志成,刘星燕,等.张家口气候资源与特色农业[J].河北气象,2004,23(4):26-27.
[16]张霞,钱锦霞.气候变暖背景下太原市霜冻发生特征及对农业的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):111-114.