川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异机制探测
|
摘要
[目的]客观揭示农村贫困化地域分异机制,为科学推进川西北高原藏区精准扶贫创新途径、综合战略和认真贯彻落实中央治藏方略提供参考依据。[方法]应用地理探测器模型、GIS空间分析与地统计方法等方法,探测川西北高原藏区贫困村单位面积GDP分异的主导因素,揭示农村贫困化分异机制,提出不同贫困化地域类型的扶贫政策措施。[结果]影响川西北高原藏区农村贫困化分异的主导因素包括到主要交通道路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地利用、年均温度和海拔高程等,各因素对贫困村经济发展分异的解释力分别为80. 76%、12. 82%、8. 82%、5. 45%和3. 96%;贫困村经济发展贫困化的分异机制存在明显差异,可归纳为交通区位约束型、自然环境约束型和经济区位约束型等三大类型;农村贫困化驱动机制下的贫困村精准扶贫政策措施亟需因地制宜、科学推进、讲求实效,有序推进精准扶贫战略。[结论]精准扶贫应分类指导、重点突破,尤其加强贫困村交通、水利、公共基础设施建设和特色农牧业产业培植,注重多种扶贫模式的综合集成。
This research is intended to scientifically reveal the regional differentiation mechanism of rural poverty,so as to provide the reference for promoting the innovative approach to targeted poverty alleviation,comprehensive strategy,and for the implementation of the central government' s strategy to govern Tibet. Using the Geodetector Model,GIS spatial analysis and geostatistics methods,this research diagnosed the dominant factors of differentiation of rural poverty and revealed the dynamic mechanism of rural poverty differentiation,and then put forward the poverty alleviation policies for different poverty regions. The results were showed as follows. First,the dominant factors affecting rural poverty differentiation included the distance to the main road distance,NDVI,land use,annual average temperature,elevation,which PD value of the poverty incidence differentiation were 80. 76%,12.82%,8. 82%,5. 45%,and 3. 96%,respectively. Second,there were obvious differences in the differentiation mechanism of poverty village economic development; it could be summarized as the three types,such as the constraint type of traffic area,the constraint type of natural environment and the constraint type of economic zone.Finally,the targeted measures of poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken villages under different driving mechanisms were urgently needed for local conditions,scientific advancement,practical effect,and promote the strategy of targeted poverty alleviation in an orderly manner. The accurate measures for poverty alleviation should be guided by classifications and key breakthroughs, especially strengthening the construction of transportation, water conservancy,public infrastructure and the cultivation of characteristic agriculture and animal husbandry industries in poor areas,and paying attention to the comprehensive integration of various poverty alleviation modes.
This research is intended to scientifically reveal the regional differentiation mechanism of rural poverty,so as to provide the reference for promoting the innovative approach to targeted poverty alleviation,comprehensive strategy,and for the implementation of the central government' s strategy to govern Tibet. Using the Geodetector Model,GIS spatial analysis and geostatistics methods,this research diagnosed the dominant factors of differentiation of rural poverty and revealed the dynamic mechanism of rural poverty differentiation,and then put forward the poverty alleviation policies for different poverty regions. The results were showed as follows. First,the dominant factors affecting rural poverty differentiation included the distance to the main road distance,NDVI,land use,annual average temperature,elevation,which PD value of the poverty incidence differentiation were 80. 76%,12.82%,8. 82%,5. 45%,and 3. 96%,respectively. Second,there were obvious differences in the differentiation mechanism of poverty village economic development; it could be summarized as the three types,such as the constraint type of traffic area,the constraint type of natural environment and the constraint type of economic zone.Finally,the targeted measures of poverty alleviation in poverty-stricken villages under different driving mechanisms were urgently needed for local conditions,scientific advancement,practical effect,and promote the strategy of targeted poverty alleviation in an orderly manner. The accurate measures for poverty alleviation should be guided by classifications and key breakthroughs, especially strengthening the construction of transportation, water conservancy,public infrastructure and the cultivation of characteristic agriculture and animal husbandry industries in poor areas,and paying attention to the comprehensive integration of various poverty alleviation modes.
引文
[1]刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(3):269-278.
[2]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策.地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.
[3]中国扶贫开发年鉴编委会.中国扶贫开发年鉴.北京:团结出版社,2015.
[4]曲玮,涂勤,牛叔文,等.自然地理环境的贫困效应检验——自然地理条件对农村贫困影响的实证分析.中国农村经济,2012(2):21-34.
[5]王晓毅.反思的发展与少数民族地区反贫困——基于滇西北和贵州的案例研究.中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,32(4):1-14.
[6]邱玲玲,曾维忠.精准扶贫视角下县域农村收入差距问题研究——基于四川省88个贫困县的分析.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):151-157.
[7]刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):269-278.
[8]李玉恒,王艳飞,刘彦随.我国扶贫开发中社会资本作用机理及效应.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):302-308.
[9]夏隽.中国农村居民收入贫困线的测算及调整方法.市场论坛,2018,166(1):32-35.
[10] Wang Yanhui,Chen Yefeng,Chi Yao,Zhao Wenji,Hu Zhuowei,Duan Fuzhou. Village-level multidimensional poverty measurement in China:Where and how. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2018,28(10):1444-1466.
[11]王介勇,陈玉福,严茂超.我国精准扶贫政策及其创新路径研究.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):289-295.
[12]黄承伟,覃志敏.我国农村贫困治理体系演进与精准扶贫.开发研究,2015(2):56-59.
[13]陈劲,尹西明,赵闯.反贫困创新的理论基础、路径模型与中国经验.天津社会科学,2018,106-113.
[14]张栋浩,尹志超.金融普惠、风险应对与农村家庭贫困脆弱性.中国农村经济,2018(4):54-73.
[15]刘艳华,徐勇.中国农村多维贫困地理识别及类型划分.地理学报,2015,70(6):993-1007.
[16]刘艳华,徐勇.扶贫模式可持续减贫效应的分析框架及机理探析.地理科学进展. 2018,37(4):567-578.
[17]冯伟林,陶聪冲.西南民族地区旅游扶贫绩效评价研究——以重庆武陵山片区为调查对象.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):157-163.
[18]黄承伟,覃志敏.我国农村贫困治理体系演进与精准扶贫.开发研究,2015(2):56-59.
[19]冯星光,张晓静.贫困测度指标及其评价.统计与信息坛,2006,21(5):22-26.
[20]陈立中.贫困测度方法与反贫目标瞄准——以Fa系列贫困指数为例.经济问题,2008(2):4-6.
[21]骆祚炎.利用线性支出系统ELES测定贫困线的实证分析:兼比较几种贫困标准.当代财经,2006(3):5-10.
[22]叶初升,罗连发.社会资本、扶贫政策与贫困家庭福利:基于贵州贫困地区农村家户调查的分层线性回归分析.财经科学,2011(7):100-109.
[23]罗翔,卢新海,项歌德.消费风险、科技抑制与中国农村贫困化:基于湖北、安徽两省的实证分析.中国人口科学,2014(3):104-114.
[24]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于GIS和人工神经网络的区域贫困化空间模拟分析:以贵州省猫跳河流域为例.地理科学进展,2006,25(3):79-85.
[25]周侃,王传胜.中国贫困地区时空格局与差别化脱贫政策研究.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(1):101-111.
[26]来亚红.民族地区精准扶贫的困境和对策探讨.农村经济与科技,2016,27(20):175-176.
[27]武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素——以陕西山阳县为例.地理研究,2018,37(3):593-606.
[28]刘道平.制约农村贫困群体进入全面小康的因素及对策.农村经济,2015(7):55-59.
[29]赵其国,滕应.以生态扶贫带动精准扶贫.光明日报,2016-04-29.
[30]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望.地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
[31]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理.地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
[2]刘彦随,李进涛.中国县域农村贫困化分异机制的地理探测与优化决策.地理学报,2017,72(1):161-173.
[3]中国扶贫开发年鉴编委会.中国扶贫开发年鉴.北京:团结出版社,2015.
[4]曲玮,涂勤,牛叔文,等.自然地理环境的贫困效应检验——自然地理条件对农村贫困影响的实证分析.中国农村经济,2012(2):21-34.
[5]王晓毅.反思的发展与少数民族地区反贫困——基于滇西北和贵州的案例研究.中国农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,32(4):1-14.
[6]邱玲玲,曾维忠.精准扶贫视角下县域农村收入差距问题研究——基于四川省88个贫困县的分析.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(8):151-157.
[7]刘彦随,周扬,刘继来.中国农村贫困化地域分异特征及其精准扶贫策略.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):269-278.
[8]李玉恒,王艳飞,刘彦随.我国扶贫开发中社会资本作用机理及效应.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):302-308.
[9]夏隽.中国农村居民收入贫困线的测算及调整方法.市场论坛,2018,166(1):32-35.
[10] Wang Yanhui,Chen Yefeng,Chi Yao,Zhao Wenji,Hu Zhuowei,Duan Fuzhou. Village-level multidimensional poverty measurement in China:Where and how. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2018,28(10):1444-1466.
[11]王介勇,陈玉福,严茂超.我国精准扶贫政策及其创新路径研究.中国科学院院刊,2016(3):289-295.
[12]黄承伟,覃志敏.我国农村贫困治理体系演进与精准扶贫.开发研究,2015(2):56-59.
[13]陈劲,尹西明,赵闯.反贫困创新的理论基础、路径模型与中国经验.天津社会科学,2018,106-113.
[14]张栋浩,尹志超.金融普惠、风险应对与农村家庭贫困脆弱性.中国农村经济,2018(4):54-73.
[15]刘艳华,徐勇.中国农村多维贫困地理识别及类型划分.地理学报,2015,70(6):993-1007.
[16]刘艳华,徐勇.扶贫模式可持续减贫效应的分析框架及机理探析.地理科学进展. 2018,37(4):567-578.
[17]冯伟林,陶聪冲.西南民族地区旅游扶贫绩效评价研究——以重庆武陵山片区为调查对象.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(6):157-163.
[18]黄承伟,覃志敏.我国农村贫困治理体系演进与精准扶贫.开发研究,2015(2):56-59.
[19]冯星光,张晓静.贫困测度指标及其评价.统计与信息坛,2006,21(5):22-26.
[20]陈立中.贫困测度方法与反贫目标瞄准——以Fa系列贫困指数为例.经济问题,2008(2):4-6.
[21]骆祚炎.利用线性支出系统ELES测定贫困线的实证分析:兼比较几种贫困标准.当代财经,2006(3):5-10.
[22]叶初升,罗连发.社会资本、扶贫政策与贫困家庭福利:基于贵州贫困地区农村家户调查的分层线性回归分析.财经科学,2011(7):100-109.
[23]罗翔,卢新海,项歌德.消费风险、科技抑制与中国农村贫困化:基于湖北、安徽两省的实证分析.中国人口科学,2014(3):104-114.
[24]许月卿,李双成,蔡运龙.基于GIS和人工神经网络的区域贫困化空间模拟分析:以贵州省猫跳河流域为例.地理科学进展,2006,25(3):79-85.
[25]周侃,王传胜.中国贫困地区时空格局与差别化脱贫政策研究.中国科学院院刊,2016,31(1):101-111.
[26]来亚红.民族地区精准扶贫的困境和对策探讨.农村经济与科技,2016,27(20):175-176.
[27]武鹏,李同昇,李卫民.县域农村贫困化空间分异及其影响因素——以陕西山阳县为例.地理研究,2018,37(3):593-606.
[28]刘道平.制约农村贫困群体进入全面小康的因素及对策.农村经济,2015(7):55-59.
[29]赵其国,滕应.以生态扶贫带动精准扶贫.光明日报,2016-04-29.
[30]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望.地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
[31]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理.地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.