考虑个体异质性的高速铁路旅客选择行为
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摘要
为了准确把握高速铁路旅客乘车选择行为,在分析个体异质性及影响旅客选择行为因素的基础上,以列车运行时间、票价、发车时段及车上服务水平作为意向调查(SP调查)的属性,利用正交设计进行调查情景组合设计.通过研究高速铁路旅客乘车选择行为,分别构建不考虑个体异质性的多项Logit模型(MNL模型)、考虑个体可观测异质性的多项Logit模型(MNL-SOC模型)和考虑个体完整异质性的混合Logit模型(ML模型).运用Biogeme软件,对模型参数进行标定;并通过支付意愿分析,定量研究个体异质性对旅客乘车选择行为的影响.结果表明:考虑个体异质性的MNL-SOC模型和ML模型的拟合优度更高,ML模型更能反映旅客的实际选择行为,并且当忽略个体异质性时旅客的支付意愿会被高估.
In order to grasp accurately the passenger choice behavior of high-speed railway,based on the analysis of individual heterogeneity and influencing factors of passenger choice behavior,the investigation scenario combination design is made using the orthogonal design and taking train running time,ticket price,departure time and the train service level as attributes of stated preference survey(SP survey).The multinomial Logit model without considering individual heterogeneity(MNL model),the multinomial Logit model only considering individual observable heterogeneity(MNL-SOC model),and the mixed Logit model considering individual integrity heterogeneity(ML model)are developed respectively by studying the passenger's travel choice behavior of high-speed railway.Biogeme software is used to calibrate the model parameters and the influence of individual heterogeneity on passenger choice behavior is analyzed through payment intention analysis.The results show that the MNL-SOC model and ML model,which take individual heterogeneity into consideration,have a higher fitting degree,the ML model can better reflect the actual passenger choice behavior and the willingness to pay is overestimated when the individual hete rogeneity is ignored.
In order to grasp accurately the passenger choice behavior of high-speed railway,based on the analysis of individual heterogeneity and influencing factors of passenger choice behavior,the investigation scenario combination design is made using the orthogonal design and taking train running time,ticket price,departure time and the train service level as attributes of stated preference survey(SP survey).The multinomial Logit model without considering individual heterogeneity(MNL model),the multinomial Logit model only considering individual observable heterogeneity(MNL-SOC model),and the mixed Logit model considering individual integrity heterogeneity(ML model)are developed respectively by studying the passenger's travel choice behavior of high-speed railway.Biogeme software is used to calibrate the model parameters and the influence of individual heterogeneity on passenger choice behavior is analyzed through payment intention analysis.The results show that the MNL-SOC model and ML model,which take individual heterogeneity into consideration,have a higher fitting degree,the ML model can better reflect the actual passenger choice behavior and the willingness to pay is overestimated when the individual hete rogeneity is ignored.
引文
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[2]张睿,马瑜,赵冰茹,等.京沪线高铁与民航旅客出行选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2016,16(1):223-228.ZHANG Rui,MA Yu,ZHAO Bingru,et al.Passenger choice behavior of high-speed rail and airline between Beijing and Shanghai[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2016,16(1):223-228.(in Chinese)
[3]叶玉玲,王艺诗.沪杭运输通道内旅客出行方式选择行为研究[J].铁道学报,2010,32(4):13-17.YE Yuling,WANG Yishi.Research on travel mode choice behavior in Shanghai-Hangzhou transport corridor[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2010,32(4):13-17.(in Chinese)
[4]史峰,邓连波,霍亮.铁路旅客乘车选择行为及其效用[J].中国铁道科学,2007,28(6):117-121.SHI Feng,DENG Lianbo,HUO Liang.Boarding choice behavior and its utility of railway passengers[J].China Railway Science,2007,28(6):117-121.(in Chinese)
[5]王文宪,倪少权,吕红霞,等.基于非集计理论的高速铁路旅客乘车选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(3):13-18.WANG Wenxian,NI Shaoquan,LYU Hongxia,et al.Boarding choice for high-speed railway passengers based on disaggregate theory[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015,15(3):13-18.(in Chinese)
[6]张迦南,赵鹏.综合运输通道旅客出行方式选择行为研究[J].中国铁道科学,2012,33(3):123-131.ZHANG Jianan,ZHAO Peng.Research on passenger choice behavior of trip mode in comprehensive transportation corridor[J].China Railway Science,2012,33(3):123-131.(in Chinese)
[7]GREENE W H,HENSHER D A.A latent class model for discrete choice analysis:contrasts with mixed Logit[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2003,37(8):681-698.
[8]ESPINO R,MARTíN J C,ROMáN C.Analyzing the effect of preference heterogeneity on willingness to pay for improving service quality in an airline choice context[J].Transportation Research Part E,2008,44(4):593-606.
[9]TEICHERT T,SHEHU E,WARTBURG I V.Customer segmentation revisited:the case of the airline industry[J].Transportation Research Part A,2008,42(1):227-242.
[10]B9CKENHOLT U,DILLON W R.Some new methods for an old problem:modeling preference changes and competitive market structures in pretest market data[J].Journal of Marketing Research,1997,34(1):130-142.
[11]王方.基于SP调查的行为时间价值研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2005.WANG Fang.Study on behavior value of time based on stated preference survey[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2005.(in Chinese)