2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响
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摘要
援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对"民意""政治性民意""政治性民意势力"内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中"政治性民意势力"的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明:中东北非国家"政治性民意势力"的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;"政治性民意势力"的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;"政治性民意势力"形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;"政治性民意势力"一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。
Based on the definition of "public opinion," "political public opinion," and "political public opinion forces" and taking discourse power and geopolitical imagination of critical geopolitics as methodology, this study mainly analyzed the formation and impacts of "political public opinion forces" in the political changes of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region from 2010 to 2015. The research results show that the "political public opinion forces" formed against a profound domestic background in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa as well as the international context. Their formation experienced the following process:beginning with the appearance of public opinion events, then moving on to the gathering of people and the rise to political issues, and ending with the domestic and foreign forces finding agents and forming the political powers to incite, protest, and push forward the political changes. After the formation of "political public opinion forces" and under the tactics of various actors, the "political public opinion incidents" expanded at home and aboard while it spread spatially from south and north in herringbone trajectory. As the pivotal actor among the various actors, "political public opinion forces" on the one hand caused the successive political changes of related countries in the Middle East and North Africa. It on the other hand further promoted the differentiating and restructuring of regional geopolitical relations. This is a meaningful attempt to interpret and analyze public opinion events with geopolitical theory.
Based on the definition of "public opinion," "political public opinion," and "political public opinion forces" and taking discourse power and geopolitical imagination of critical geopolitics as methodology, this study mainly analyzed the formation and impacts of "political public opinion forces" in the political changes of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region from 2010 to 2015. The research results show that the "political public opinion forces" formed against a profound domestic background in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa as well as the international context. Their formation experienced the following process:beginning with the appearance of public opinion events, then moving on to the gathering of people and the rise to political issues, and ending with the domestic and foreign forces finding agents and forming the political powers to incite, protest, and push forward the political changes. After the formation of "political public opinion forces" and under the tactics of various actors, the "political public opinion incidents" expanded at home and aboard while it spread spatially from south and north in herringbone trajectory. As the pivotal actor among the various actors, "political public opinion forces" on the one hand caused the successive political changes of related countries in the Middle East and North Africa. It on the other hand further promoted the differentiating and restructuring of regional geopolitical relations. This is a meaningful attempt to interpret and analyze public opinion events with geopolitical theory.
引文
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陈遥.2009.美国对中国在东南亚软实力的认知:以国会研究处报告和民意调查为中心的分析[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),(4):44-53.[Chen Y.2009.The United States'cognition of China's soft power in Southeast Asia:An analysis on congressional research service reports and opinion polls.Journal of Xiamen University(Arts&Social Sciences Edition),(4):44-53.]
赫泉玲,肖剑.2013.网络民意的形成机制及其理性表达的引导策略[J].情报科学,31(4):89-95.[He Q L,Xiao J.2013.Shaping mechanism of public opinion online under strategy guidance of rational expression.Information Science,31(4):89-95.]
胡键.2011.当前国际社会的中国观:基于西方民意调查的实证分析[J].毛泽东邓小平理论研究,(2):71-77.[Hu J.2011.China in the views of the current international community:A case analysis based on a survey of the western public opinion.Studies on Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping Theories,(2):71-77.]
让·雅克·卢梭.2005.社会契约论[M].何兆武,译.北京:商务印书馆.[Rousseau J J.2005.The social contract.Translated by He Z W.Beijing,China:The Commercial Press.]
塞缪尔·亨廷顿.2010.文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建[M].周琪,译.上海:上海社会科学院出版社.[Huntington S P.2010.The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order.Translated by Zhou Q.Shanghai,China:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.]
索尔·伯纳德·科恩.2001.地缘政治学:国际关系中的地理学[M].严春松,译.上海:上海社会科学院出版社.[Cohen S B.2001.Geopolitics:The geography of international relations.Translated by Yan C S.Shanghai,China:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.]
唐叶青.2014.叙利亚危机的媒体话语与话语政治分析[J].阿拉伯世界研究,(5):60-80.[Tang Y Q.2007.The study on media discourse and politics of discourse of Syrian crisis.Arab World Studies,(5):60-80.]
王晓玲.2012.什么因素影响韩国民众在中美之间的立场?基于韩国民意调查的统计分析[J].世界经济与政治,(8):20-35,156-157.[Wang X L.2012.What factors affect the Korean people's position on the Sino-US relations?Astatistical analysis based on Korean opinion polls.World Economics and Politics,(8):20-35,156-157.]
谢韬.2011.从民意调查看中国的对美外交和中美关系[J].外交评论,(5):59-71.[Xie T.2011.China's diplomatic policy towards the United States and Sino-US relations from the perspective of public opinion survey.Foreign Affairs Review,(5):59-71.]
喻国明.2001.解构民意:一个舆论学者的实证研究[M].北京:华夏出版社.[Yu G M.2001.Public opinion analysis:A quantitative research into the public in modern China.Beijing,China:Huaxia Publishing House.]
张昆,崔汝源.2016.我国公众心目中的邻国形象及其影响因素研究:基于两轮全国性民意调查(2014-2015)[J].新闻与传播研究,23(10):104-125,128.[Zhang K,Cui RY.2016.The image of neighboring countries in the eyes of the Chinese public and influencing factors:A study based on two rounds of national polls(2014-2015).Journalism&Communication,23(10):104-125,128.]
张文木.2012.国家战略能力与大国博弈[M].济南:山东人民出版社.[Zhang W M.2012.National strategic ability and great power game.Jinan,China:Shandong People's Publishing House.]
张晓刚.2011.和谐社会视阈下畅通我国民意表达渠道的对策思考[J].理论月刊,(9):33-36.[Zhang X G.2011.Reflections on the measures for unblocking the expression channels of public opinion in China from the perspective of harmonious society.Theory Monthly,(9):33-36.]
周晓丽,布勒格.2014.论社会治理中的网络民意表达[J].行政论坛,21(4):28-31.[Zhou X L,Bulege.2014.Discussing on the expression of netizen opinions in the system of social governance.Administrative Tribune,21(4):28-31.]
Acton L.1907.Historical essays and studies[M].London,UK:Macmillan.
Agnew J.1998.Geopolitics:Re-visioning world politics[M].London,UK and New York,NY:Routledge.
Agnew J.2007.Know-where:Geographies of knowledge of world politics[J].International Political Sociology,1(2):138-148.
Andrucki M J,Dickinson J.2015.Rethinking centers and margins in geography:Bodies,life course,and the performance of transnational space[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,105(1):203-218.
Bensaada A.2011.Arabesque Americaine[M].Montreal,Canada:Michel Brulé.
Bernays E L.2015.Crystallizing public opinion[M].New York,NY:Open Road Media.
Brancati D.2014.The determinants of US public opinion towards democracy promotion[J].Political Behavior,36(4):705-730.
Chan S.2017.The power-transition discourse and China's rise[EB/OL].Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics,2017-05-30[2018-08-08].https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.561.
Dalby S.1991.Critical geopolitics:Discourse,difference and dissent[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,9(3):261-283.
Dodds K.2010.Classical geopolitics revisited[M]//Denemark R A,Renée M.The international studies encyclopedia.Vol 2.Wiley-Blackwell:302-322.
Donnelly P F,?zkazan?-Pan B.2014.Development discourse and practice:Alternatives and new directions from postcolonial Perspectives[M]//Lupton N,Pirson M.Humanistic perspectives on international business and management.London,UK:Palgrave-Macmillan:55-67.
Eundak K.2006.Perceptions toward North Korea's nuclear weapons program:Findings from a public opinion survey[J].East Asia,23(4):61-84.
Fairclough N.2003.Analysing Discourse:Textual Analysis for Social Research[M].London,UK:Psychology Press.
Foucault M.1998.The will to knowledge:The history of sexuality.vol l[M].London,UK:Penguin Books.
Gramsci A.1999.Selections from the Prison Notebooks of Antonio Gramsci[M].New York,NY:International Publishers.
Hayes D,Guardino M.2011.The influence of foreign voices on US public opinion[J].American Journal of Political Science,55(4):831-851.
Hennessy B C.1966.Public opinion[M].Belmont,CA:Wadsworth Publishing Company.
Horiuchi T.2014.Public opinion in Japan and the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands[J].East Asia,31(1):23-47.
Ji F Y.2017.The West and China:Discourses,agendas and change[J].Critical Discourse Studies,14(4):325-340.
Kapur D.2009.Public opinion and Indian foreign policy[J].India Review,8(3):286-305.
Kuus M.2004.Those goody-goody Estonians:Toward rethinking security in the European Union candidate states[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,22(2):191-207.
Lippmann W.1922.Public opinion[M].New York,NY:Harcourt,Brace and Company.
Muller M.2008.Reconsidering the concept of discourse for the field of critical geopolitics:Towards discourse as language and practice[J].Political Geography,27(3):322-338.
Parker N.2008.The geopolitics of Europe's identity:Centers,boundaries,and margins[M].London,UK:Palgrave-Macmillan.
Teun A V D.2013.Discourse,power and access[M]//Carmen R C,Malcolm C.Texts and practices:Readings in critical discourse analysis.London,UK:Routledge:84-106.
Tuathail Gó,Agnew J.1992.Geopolitics and discourse:Practical geopolitical reasoning in American foreign policy[J].Political Geography,11(2):190-204.
Tuathail Gó.2002.Post-Cold War geopolitics:Contrasting superpowers in a world of global dangers[M]//Johnston R J,Taylor P J,Watts M,et al.Geographies of global change.London,UK:Blackwell Publishers:1-28.
Turgeon M.2009.'Just thinking':Attitude development,public opinion,and political representation[J].Political Behavior,31:353-378.
安宁,朱竑.2018.后人文主义视角下的中国地缘政治话语研究[J].地理科学,38(6):838-848.[An N,Zhu H.2018.Examining Chinese geopolitical discourses under the theoretical framework of Posthumanism.Scientia Geographica Sinica,38(6):838-848.]
陈遥.2009.美国对中国在东南亚软实力的认知:以国会研究处报告和民意调查为中心的分析[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版),(4):44-53.[Chen Y.2009.The United States'cognition of China's soft power in Southeast Asia:An analysis on congressional research service reports and opinion polls.Journal of Xiamen University(Arts&Social Sciences Edition),(4):44-53.]
赫泉玲,肖剑.2013.网络民意的形成机制及其理性表达的引导策略[J].情报科学,31(4):89-95.[He Q L,Xiao J.2013.Shaping mechanism of public opinion online under strategy guidance of rational expression.Information Science,31(4):89-95.]
胡键.2011.当前国际社会的中国观:基于西方民意调查的实证分析[J].毛泽东邓小平理论研究,(2):71-77.[Hu J.2011.China in the views of the current international community:A case analysis based on a survey of the western public opinion.Studies on Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping Theories,(2):71-77.]
让·雅克·卢梭.2005.社会契约论[M].何兆武,译.北京:商务印书馆.[Rousseau J J.2005.The social contract.Translated by He Z W.Beijing,China:The Commercial Press.]
塞缪尔·亨廷顿.2010.文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建[M].周琪,译.上海:上海社会科学院出版社.[Huntington S P.2010.The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order.Translated by Zhou Q.Shanghai,China:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.]
索尔·伯纳德·科恩.2001.地缘政治学:国际关系中的地理学[M].严春松,译.上海:上海社会科学院出版社.[Cohen S B.2001.Geopolitics:The geography of international relations.Translated by Yan C S.Shanghai,China:Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Press.]
唐叶青.2014.叙利亚危机的媒体话语与话语政治分析[J].阿拉伯世界研究,(5):60-80.[Tang Y Q.2007.The study on media discourse and politics of discourse of Syrian crisis.Arab World Studies,(5):60-80.]
王晓玲.2012.什么因素影响韩国民众在中美之间的立场?基于韩国民意调查的统计分析[J].世界经济与政治,(8):20-35,156-157.[Wang X L.2012.What factors affect the Korean people's position on the Sino-US relations?Astatistical analysis based on Korean opinion polls.World Economics and Politics,(8):20-35,156-157.]
谢韬.2011.从民意调查看中国的对美外交和中美关系[J].外交评论,(5):59-71.[Xie T.2011.China's diplomatic policy towards the United States and Sino-US relations from the perspective of public opinion survey.Foreign Affairs Review,(5):59-71.]
喻国明.2001.解构民意:一个舆论学者的实证研究[M].北京:华夏出版社.[Yu G M.2001.Public opinion analysis:A quantitative research into the public in modern China.Beijing,China:Huaxia Publishing House.]
张昆,崔汝源.2016.我国公众心目中的邻国形象及其影响因素研究:基于两轮全国性民意调查(2014-2015)[J].新闻与传播研究,23(10):104-125,128.[Zhang K,Cui RY.2016.The image of neighboring countries in the eyes of the Chinese public and influencing factors:A study based on two rounds of national polls(2014-2015).Journalism&Communication,23(10):104-125,128.]
张文木.2012.国家战略能力与大国博弈[M].济南:山东人民出版社.[Zhang W M.2012.National strategic ability and great power game.Jinan,China:Shandong People's Publishing House.]
张晓刚.2011.和谐社会视阈下畅通我国民意表达渠道的对策思考[J].理论月刊,(9):33-36.[Zhang X G.2011.Reflections on the measures for unblocking the expression channels of public opinion in China from the perspective of harmonious society.Theory Monthly,(9):33-36.]
周晓丽,布勒格.2014.论社会治理中的网络民意表达[J].行政论坛,21(4):28-31.[Zhou X L,Bulege.2014.Discussing on the expression of netizen opinions in the system of social governance.Administrative Tribune,21(4):28-31.]
Acton L.1907.Historical essays and studies[M].London,UK:Macmillan.
Agnew J.1998.Geopolitics:Re-visioning world politics[M].London,UK and New York,NY:Routledge.
Agnew J.2007.Know-where:Geographies of knowledge of world politics[J].International Political Sociology,1(2):138-148.
Andrucki M J,Dickinson J.2015.Rethinking centers and margins in geography:Bodies,life course,and the performance of transnational space[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,105(1):203-218.
Bensaada A.2011.Arabesque Americaine[M].Montreal,Canada:Michel Brulé.
Bernays E L.2015.Crystallizing public opinion[M].New York,NY:Open Road Media.
Brancati D.2014.The determinants of US public opinion towards democracy promotion[J].Political Behavior,36(4):705-730.
Chan S.2017.The power-transition discourse and China's rise[EB/OL].Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics,2017-05-30[2018-08-08].https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.561.
Dalby S.1991.Critical geopolitics:Discourse,difference and dissent[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,9(3):261-283.
Dodds K.2010.Classical geopolitics revisited[M]//Denemark R A,Renée M.The international studies encyclopedia.Vol 2.Wiley-Blackwell:302-322.
Donnelly P F,?zkazan?-Pan B.2014.Development discourse and practice:Alternatives and new directions from postcolonial Perspectives[M]//Lupton N,Pirson M.Humanistic perspectives on international business and management.London,UK:Palgrave-Macmillan:55-67.
Eundak K.2006.Perceptions toward North Korea's nuclear weapons program:Findings from a public opinion survey[J].East Asia,23(4):61-84.
Fairclough N.2003.Analysing Discourse:Textual Analysis for Social Research[M].London,UK:Psychology Press.
Foucault M.1998.The will to knowledge:The history of sexuality.vol l[M].London,UK:Penguin Books.
Gramsci A.1999.Selections from the Prison Notebooks of Antonio Gramsci[M].New York,NY:International Publishers.
Hayes D,Guardino M.2011.The influence of foreign voices on US public opinion[J].American Journal of Political Science,55(4):831-851.
Hennessy B C.1966.Public opinion[M].Belmont,CA:Wadsworth Publishing Company.
Horiuchi T.2014.Public opinion in Japan and the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands[J].East Asia,31(1):23-47.
Ji F Y.2017.The West and China:Discourses,agendas and change[J].Critical Discourse Studies,14(4):325-340.
Kapur D.2009.Public opinion and Indian foreign policy[J].India Review,8(3):286-305.
Kuus M.2004.Those goody-goody Estonians:Toward rethinking security in the European Union candidate states[J].Environment and Planning D:Society and Space,22(2):191-207.
Lippmann W.1922.Public opinion[M].New York,NY:Harcourt,Brace and Company.
Muller M.2008.Reconsidering the concept of discourse for the field of critical geopolitics:Towards discourse as language and practice[J].Political Geography,27(3):322-338.
Parker N.2008.The geopolitics of Europe's identity:Centers,boundaries,and margins[M].London,UK:Palgrave-Macmillan.
Teun A V D.2013.Discourse,power and access[M]//Carmen R C,Malcolm C.Texts and practices:Readings in critical discourse analysis.London,UK:Routledge:84-106.
Tuathail Gó,Agnew J.1992.Geopolitics and discourse:Practical geopolitical reasoning in American foreign policy[J].Political Geography,11(2):190-204.
Tuathail Gó.2002.Post-Cold War geopolitics:Contrasting superpowers in a world of global dangers[M]//Johnston R J,Taylor P J,Watts M,et al.Geographies of global change.London,UK:Blackwell Publishers:1-28.
Turgeon M.2009.'Just thinking':Attitude development,public opinion,and political representation[J].Political Behavior,31:353-378.