中国对美国制造业直接投资影响因素研究——基于协整方法和VEC模型的实证分析
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摘要
特朗普减税方案将进一步减低美国制造业企业税负,推动美国制造业企业海外资本回流,加速制造业资本流出我国,加之愈演愈烈的美国单边贸易保护主义,中国制造业企业对美国投资前景是否乐观,一要看双方制造业吸引外资环境的相对变化,二要看中美制造业竞争力的相对变化。成本是中美制造业竞争力比较的重要内容,但在各国争夺制造业创新制高点以及吸引外资竞争的大背景下,政策因素对中美制造业资本流动的影响很可能呈现出提升态势,分析中美制造业相对优势就需要从成本和竞争力比较的角度出发,对中美两国制造业吸引外资成本因素的新变化进行梳理,并对两国制造业竞争力现状进行对比,在综合考虑成本和竞争力因素的基础上,再加入贸易壁垒这一影响因素,全面考察中国企业对美国制造业开展直接投资的决策依据和影响因素。
The tax reduction plan in the USA will further reduce the tax burden on U.S. manufacturing compa-nies, increase U.S. corporate export competitiveness, promote the return of U.S. manufacturing companies ' overseas capital, accelerate the flow of manufacturing capital out of China, and intensify U.S. unilateral trade protectionism. This will undoubtedly reshape the manufacturing industries in China and the United States. In this context, whether China's manufacturing companies are optimistic about the U.S. investment prospects depends on the relative change in the manufacturing environment of both sides to attract foreign in-vestment. Second, it must look at the relative changes in the manufacturing competitiveness of China and the United States. Cost is an important part of the competitiveness of manufacturing in China and the United States. However, under the backdrop of countries competing for the high point of manufacturing innovation and attracting foreign investment, the influence of policy factors on the flow of manufacturing capital in China and the United States is likely to show a trend of improvement. The comparative advantages of the US manufac-turing industry need to be based on a comparison of cost and competitiveness, sort out the new changes in the cost of foreign investment in manufacturing industries in China and the United States, and compare the status quo of the competitiveness of the two countries' manufacturing industries in order to comprehensively consider the costs. Based on the factors of competitiveness and competitiveness, the influencing factors of joining trade barriers are also comprehensively analyzed on the impact of Chinese companies on direct investment in the United States.
The tax reduction plan in the USA will further reduce the tax burden on U.S. manufacturing compa-nies, increase U.S. corporate export competitiveness, promote the return of U.S. manufacturing companies ' overseas capital, accelerate the flow of manufacturing capital out of China, and intensify U.S. unilateral trade protectionism. This will undoubtedly reshape the manufacturing industries in China and the United States. In this context, whether China's manufacturing companies are optimistic about the U.S. investment prospects depends on the relative change in the manufacturing environment of both sides to attract foreign in-vestment. Second, it must look at the relative changes in the manufacturing competitiveness of China and the United States. Cost is an important part of the competitiveness of manufacturing in China and the United States. However, under the backdrop of countries competing for the high point of manufacturing innovation and attracting foreign investment, the influence of policy factors on the flow of manufacturing capital in China and the United States is likely to show a trend of improvement. The comparative advantages of the US manufac-turing industry need to be based on a comparison of cost and competitiveness, sort out the new changes in the cost of foreign investment in manufacturing industries in China and the United States, and compare the status quo of the competitiveness of the two countries' manufacturing industries in order to comprehensively consider the costs. Based on the factors of competitiveness and competitiveness, the influencing factors of joining trade barriers are also comprehensively analyzed on the impact of Chinese companies on direct investment in the United States.
引文
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[2]周金凯.特朗普上台对中美直接投资的影响分析[J].经济学家,2017(2):99.
[3]王梅.中国投资海外:质疑、事实和分析[M].北京:中信出版社,2014:43-44.
[4]贾杉.贸易保护与中国对美国的直接投资研究[J].统计与决策,2011(12):148-151.
[5]Hostman I.J.,Markusen,J.R.Strategic Investment s and the Development of Multinationals[J].Internation al Economic Review,1987,28:109-121.
[6]Kenwood A.G,Lougheed,A.L.The Growth of the Inter national Economy[M].An Introductory Text,George Allen and Unwin,London,1983:1820-1980.
[7]Haaland,J,Wooton,I.Antidumping Jumping:Recipr ocal Antidumping and Industrial Location.Weltwirtscha ftliches Archiv,1998,134:341-362.
[8]Belderbos,R.L.Sleuwaegen.Tariff Jumping DFIand ExportSubstitution:Japanese Electronics Firm in Europe.International Journal of Industrial Organizati on,1998,601-638.
[9]史本叶,李秭慧.中国对美直接投资:跨越贸易壁垒的视角[J].东北师大学报,2017(1):61.
[10]邱书欣.中美制造业综合税负对比分析[J].对外经贸实务,2017(7):37.
[11]杨志勇.特朗普税制改革主张评析[J].国际税收,2017(2):32-34.
[12]庄芮.美国重振制造业对中美经贸关系的影响[J].亚太经济,2013,(5):51-55.
[13]赵志君.特朗普政府减税方案的可行性及其可能后果[J].中国发展观察,2017(9):120.
[14]赵硕刚.特朗普减税搅动全球产业和资本流动格局[J].海外投资与出口信贷,2018(1):28-33.
[15]翟东升,赵宇轩.特朗普政府经济政策趋势与中国应对之策[J].现代国际关系,2017(5):18-25.