杉木单木枯损率与初植密度、竞争和气候因子的关系
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摘要
【目的】分析杉木单木枯损率与初植密度、竞争和气候因子的关系,为杉木科学经营管理提供决策依据。【方法】以江西杉木密度试验林为研究对象,选取常用的logit、probit和cloglog 3种二分类变量数据结构模型构建杉木单木枯损率基础模型,并进行选择。以选择出的最优模型为基础,引入样地和样木的随机效应构建杉木单木枯损率混合效应模型。【结果】logit模型的AIC值最小(4 700.419),probit模型次之,cloglog模型最差。考虑样地和样木两水平随机效应的混合效应模型模拟精度最高,其AUC值为0.966 8。初植密度、林分优势高越大,杉木单木枯损率越高;相对直径d/D_g越大,杉木单木枯损率越低;气候越干旱,杉木单木枯损率越高;温度升高,杉木单木枯损率减小。【结论】考虑样地和样木两水平的logit模型能够较好分析杉木单木枯损率与初植密度、竞争、立地和气候因子的关系,并且随着气候干旱发生,杉木单木枯损率提高。
【Objective】It is important to analyze the relationship between tree mortality and planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors for managing Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata)well.【Method】 Based on the Chinese fir data in Jiangxi Province, three widely used model for analyzing binary data which are logit, probit and cloglog link models were used to modelling tree mortality and compared with each other. Then we introduced the plot and tree random effects to the selected model in order.【Result】 The result showed that the logit model was the best(AIC=4 700.419), followed by probit model, and cloglog model. Also accounting for the plot and tree random effects at the same time had the best performance, and its AUC was 0.966 8, which was close to 1. In addition, we also found: mortality rate increased with increasing initial planting density and site index; decreased with increasing d/D_g; decreased with increasing mean annual temperature and previous summer mean temperature; increased with increasing previous winter mean minimum temperature and annual heat-moisture index.【Conclusion】 Logit model performed well on modeling tree mortality in relation to planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors. The research of relationship between mortality and annual heat-moisture index could be helpful for managing Chinese fir plantations under the climate change.
【Objective】It is important to analyze the relationship between tree mortality and planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors for managing Chinese fir(Cunninghamia lanceolata)well.【Method】 Based on the Chinese fir data in Jiangxi Province, three widely used model for analyzing binary data which are logit, probit and cloglog link models were used to modelling tree mortality and compared with each other. Then we introduced the plot and tree random effects to the selected model in order.【Result】 The result showed that the logit model was the best(AIC=4 700.419), followed by probit model, and cloglog model. Also accounting for the plot and tree random effects at the same time had the best performance, and its AUC was 0.966 8, which was close to 1. In addition, we also found: mortality rate increased with increasing initial planting density and site index; decreased with increasing d/D_g; decreased with increasing mean annual temperature and previous summer mean temperature; increased with increasing previous winter mean minimum temperature and annual heat-moisture index.【Conclusion】 Logit model performed well on modeling tree mortality in relation to planting density, competition, site index, and climate factors. The research of relationship between mortality and annual heat-moisture index could be helpful for managing Chinese fir plantations under the climate change.
引文
符利勇,唐守正,张会儒,等.2015.基于多水平非线性混合效应蒙古栎林单木断面积模型.林业科学研究,28(1):23-31.(Fu L Y,Tang S Z,Zhang H R,et al.2015.Multilevel nonlinear mixed-effects basal area models for individual trees of Quercus mongolica.Forest Research,28(1):23-31.[in Chinese])
吴中伦.1984.杉木.北京:中国林业出版社.(Wu Z L.1984.Chinese fir.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
张雄清,张建国,段爱国.2014.基于贝叶斯法估计杉木人工林树高生长模型.林业科学,50(3):69-75.(Zhang X Q,Zhang J G,Duan A G.2014.Tree-height growth model for Chinese fir plantation based on Bayesian method.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,50(3):69-75.[in Chinese])
Adame P,Del Río M,Caňellas I.2010.Modeling individual-tree mortality in Pyrenean oak(Quercus pyrenaica,Willd.) stands.Annals of Forest Science,67(8):810-810.
Adams H D,Guardiola-Claramonte M,Barron-Gafford G A,et al.2009.Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global change-type drought.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,7063-7066.
Akers M K,Kane M,Zhao D,et al.2013.Effects of planting density and cultural intensity on stand and crown attributes of mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations.Forest Ecology and Management,310(1):468-475.
Allen C D,Macalady A K,Chenchouni H,et al.2010.A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests.Forest Ecology and Management,259(4):660-684.
álvarez-González J G,Dorado F C,González A D R,et al.2004.A two-step mortality model for even-aged stands of Pinus radiata D.Don in Galicia(Northwestern Spain).Annals of Forest Science,61(5):439-448.
Biggeri L,Bini M,Grilli L.2001.The transition from university to work:a multilevel approach to the analysis of the time to obtain the first job.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series A,164(2):293-305.
Boeck A,Dieler J,Biber P,et al.2014.Predicting tree mortality for European beech in southern Germany using spatially explicit competition indices.Forest Science,60(4):613-622.
Breshears D D,Cobb N S,Rich P M,et al.2005.Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,15144-15148.
Buford M A,Hafley W L.1985.Modeling the probability of individual tree mortality.Forest Science,31(3):331-341.
Calama R,Montero G.2005.Multilevel linear mixed model for tree diameter increment in stone pine(Pinus pinea):a calibrating approach.Silva Fennica,39(1):37-54.
Eid T,Tuhus E.2001.Models for individual tree mortality in Norway.Forest Ecology and Management,154(1/2):69-84.
Fielding A H,Bell J F.1997.A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models.Environmental Conservation,24(1):38-49.
Fortin M,Bédard S,Deblois J,et al.2008.Predicting individual tree mortality in northern hardwood stands under uneven-aged management in southern Québec,Canada.Annals of Forest Science,65(2):205-210.
Franklin J F,Spies T A,Van Pelt R,et al.2002.Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications,using Douglas-fir forests as an example.Forest Ecology and Management,155(1):399-423.
Hamilton D A.1986.A logistic model of mortality in thinned and unthinned mixed conifer stands of northern Idaho.Forest Science,32(4):989-1000.
Holzwarth F,Kahl A,Bauhus J,et al.2013.Many ways to die-partitioning tree mortality dynamics in a near-natural mixed deciduous forest.Journal of Ecology,101(1):220-230.
Huettmann F,Linke J.2003.Assessment of different link functions for modeling binary data to derive sound inferences and predictions.Computational Science and Its Applications-ICCSA 2003,43-48.
Jutras S,H?kk? H,Alenius V,et al.2003.Modeling mortality of individual trees in drained peatland sites in Finland.Silva Fennica,37(2):235-251.
Kneeshaw D D,Bergeron Y.1998.Canopy gap characteristics and tree replacement in the southeastern boreal forest.Ecology,79(3):783-794.
Kobe R K,Coates K D.1997.Models of sapling mortality as a function of growth to characterize interspecific variation in shade tolerance of eight tree species of northwestern British Columbia.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,27(2):227-236.
Kuson S,Sriboonchitta S,Calkins P.2012.Household determinants of poverty in Savannakhet,Laos:Binary choice model approach.The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters,1(3):33-52.
Laaksonen S.2006.Does the choice of link function matter in response propensity modelling?Model Assisted Statistics and Applications,2(2):95-100.
Laarmann D,Korjus H,Sims A,et al.2009.Analysis of forest naturalness and tree mortality patterns in Estonia.Forest Ecology and Management,258(supp.):S187-S195.
Lee Y.1971.Predicting mortality for even-aged stands of lodgepde pine.Forestry Chronicle,47(1):29-32.
Lutz J A,Halpern C B.2006.Tree mortality during early forest development:a long term study of rates,causes,and consequences.Ecological Monographs,76(2):257-275.
McClain K M,Morris D M,Hills S C,et al.1994.The effects of initial spacing on growth and crown development for planted northern conifers:37-year results.Forestry Chronicle,70(2):174-182.
Merlin M,Perot T,Perret S,et al.2015.Effects of stand composition and tree size on resistance and resilience to drought in sessile oak and Scots pine.Forest Ecology and Management,339:22-33.
Monserud R A,Sterba H.1999.Modeling individual tree mortality for Austrian forest species.Forest Ecology and Management,113(2/3):109-123.
Moser Jr J W.1972.Dynamics of an uneven-aged forest stand.Forest Science,18(3):184-191.
Mueller R C,Scudder C M,Porter M E,et al.2005.Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought:evidence for long-term vegetation shifts.Journal of Ecology,93(6):1085-1093.
Peet R K,Christensen N L.1987.Competition and tree death.Bioscience,37(8):586-595.
Preisler H K,Slaughter G W.1997.A stochastic model for tree survival in stands affected by annosum root disease.Forest Science,43(1):78-85.
Raftery A.1988.Approximate bayes factors for generalized linear models.Technical reports No.121,University of Washingtom.
Rose Jr C E,Hall D B,Shiver B D,et al.2006.A multilevel approach to individual tree survival prediction.Forest Science,52(1):31-43.
Ruiz-Benito P,Lines E R,Gómez-Aparicio L,et al.2013.Patterns and drivers of tree mortality in Iberian forests:climatic effects are modified by competition.PLoS ONE,8(2):e56843.
Somers G L,Oderwald R C,Harms W R,et al.1980.Predicting mortality with a Weibull function.Forest Science,26(2):291-300.
Van Mantgem P J,Stephenson N L,Byrne J C,et al.2009.Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States.Science,323(5913):521-524.
Vanclay J K.1995.Growth models for tropical forests:a synthesis of models and methods.Forest Science,41(1):7-42.
Vanclay J K.1994.Modeling forest growth and yield:applications to mixed tropical forests.School of Environmental Science and Management,312.
Wang T,Wang G,Innes J,et al.2014.Climate AP-an easy access to high-resolution climate data for Asia Pacific.Unpublished Manuscript,Faculty of Forestry,University of British Columbia,Vancouver,Canada.
Wang X,Dey D K.2010.Generalized extreme value regression for binary response data:an application to B2B electronic payments system adoption.Annals of Applied Statistics,4(4):2000-2023.
Williams R A.1994.Stand density management diagram for loblolly pine plantations in north Louisiana.Southern Journal of Applied Forestry,18(1):40-45.
Woodall W W,Grambsch P L,Thomas W.2005.Applying survival analysis to a large-scale forest inventory for assessment of tree mortality in Minnesota.Ecological Modelling,189(1/2):199-208.
Woollons R C.1998.Even-aged stand mortality estimation through a two-step regression process.Forest Ecology and Management,105(1/3):189-195.
Yang Y,Titus S J,Huang S.2003.Modeling individual tree mortality for white spruce in Alberta.Ecological Modelling,163(3):209-222.
Yang Y,Huan S,Meng S X,et al.2009.A multilevel individual tree basal area increment model for aspen in boreal mixedwood stands.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,39(11):2203-2214.
Yao X,Titus S J,MacDonald S E.2001.A generalized logistic model of individual tree mortality for aspen,white spruce,and lodgepole pine in Alberta mixed wood forests.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,31(2):283-291.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Cao Q V,et al.2011.Improving tree survival prediction with forecast combination and disaggregation.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,41(10):1928-1935.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Pang Y,et al.2014.Tree mortality in response to climate change induced drought across Beijing,China.Climatic Change,124(1):179-190.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Liu X.2015.Modeling stand mortality using Poisson mixture models with mixed-effects.iForest-Biogeosciences and Forestry,8:333-338.
Zhao D,Borders B E,Wang M,et al.2007.Modeling mortality of second-rotation loblolly pine plantations in the piedmont/upper coastal plain and lower coastal plain of the southern United States.Forest Ecology and Management,252(1/3):132-143.
Zhou G,Peng C,Li Y,et al.2013.A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.Global Change Biology,19(4):1197-1210.
吴中伦.1984.杉木.北京:中国林业出版社.(Wu Z L.1984.Chinese fir.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House.[in Chinese])
张雄清,张建国,段爱国.2014.基于贝叶斯法估计杉木人工林树高生长模型.林业科学,50(3):69-75.(Zhang X Q,Zhang J G,Duan A G.2014.Tree-height growth model for Chinese fir plantation based on Bayesian method.Scientia Silvae Sinicae,50(3):69-75.[in Chinese])
Adame P,Del Río M,Caňellas I.2010.Modeling individual-tree mortality in Pyrenean oak(Quercus pyrenaica,Willd.) stands.Annals of Forest Science,67(8):810-810.
Adams H D,Guardiola-Claramonte M,Barron-Gafford G A,et al.2009.Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global change-type drought.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,7063-7066.
Akers M K,Kane M,Zhao D,et al.2013.Effects of planting density and cultural intensity on stand and crown attributes of mid-rotation loblolly pine plantations.Forest Ecology and Management,310(1):468-475.
Allen C D,Macalady A K,Chenchouni H,et al.2010.A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests.Forest Ecology and Management,259(4):660-684.
álvarez-González J G,Dorado F C,González A D R,et al.2004.A two-step mortality model for even-aged stands of Pinus radiata D.Don in Galicia(Northwestern Spain).Annals of Forest Science,61(5):439-448.
Biggeri L,Bini M,Grilli L.2001.The transition from university to work:a multilevel approach to the analysis of the time to obtain the first job.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series A,164(2):293-305.
Boeck A,Dieler J,Biber P,et al.2014.Predicting tree mortality for European beech in southern Germany using spatially explicit competition indices.Forest Science,60(4):613-622.
Breshears D D,Cobb N S,Rich P M,et al.2005.Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,15144-15148.
Buford M A,Hafley W L.1985.Modeling the probability of individual tree mortality.Forest Science,31(3):331-341.
Calama R,Montero G.2005.Multilevel linear mixed model for tree diameter increment in stone pine(Pinus pinea):a calibrating approach.Silva Fennica,39(1):37-54.
Eid T,Tuhus E.2001.Models for individual tree mortality in Norway.Forest Ecology and Management,154(1/2):69-84.
Fielding A H,Bell J F.1997.A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models.Environmental Conservation,24(1):38-49.
Fortin M,Bédard S,Deblois J,et al.2008.Predicting individual tree mortality in northern hardwood stands under uneven-aged management in southern Québec,Canada.Annals of Forest Science,65(2):205-210.
Franklin J F,Spies T A,Van Pelt R,et al.2002.Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications,using Douglas-fir forests as an example.Forest Ecology and Management,155(1):399-423.
Hamilton D A.1986.A logistic model of mortality in thinned and unthinned mixed conifer stands of northern Idaho.Forest Science,32(4):989-1000.
Holzwarth F,Kahl A,Bauhus J,et al.2013.Many ways to die-partitioning tree mortality dynamics in a near-natural mixed deciduous forest.Journal of Ecology,101(1):220-230.
Huettmann F,Linke J.2003.Assessment of different link functions for modeling binary data to derive sound inferences and predictions.Computational Science and Its Applications-ICCSA 2003,43-48.
Jutras S,H?kk? H,Alenius V,et al.2003.Modeling mortality of individual trees in drained peatland sites in Finland.Silva Fennica,37(2):235-251.
Kneeshaw D D,Bergeron Y.1998.Canopy gap characteristics and tree replacement in the southeastern boreal forest.Ecology,79(3):783-794.
Kobe R K,Coates K D.1997.Models of sapling mortality as a function of growth to characterize interspecific variation in shade tolerance of eight tree species of northwestern British Columbia.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,27(2):227-236.
Kuson S,Sriboonchitta S,Calkins P.2012.Household determinants of poverty in Savannakhet,Laos:Binary choice model approach.The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters,1(3):33-52.
Laaksonen S.2006.Does the choice of link function matter in response propensity modelling?Model Assisted Statistics and Applications,2(2):95-100.
Laarmann D,Korjus H,Sims A,et al.2009.Analysis of forest naturalness and tree mortality patterns in Estonia.Forest Ecology and Management,258(supp.):S187-S195.
Lee Y.1971.Predicting mortality for even-aged stands of lodgepde pine.Forestry Chronicle,47(1):29-32.
Lutz J A,Halpern C B.2006.Tree mortality during early forest development:a long term study of rates,causes,and consequences.Ecological Monographs,76(2):257-275.
McClain K M,Morris D M,Hills S C,et al.1994.The effects of initial spacing on growth and crown development for planted northern conifers:37-year results.Forestry Chronicle,70(2):174-182.
Merlin M,Perot T,Perret S,et al.2015.Effects of stand composition and tree size on resistance and resilience to drought in sessile oak and Scots pine.Forest Ecology and Management,339:22-33.
Monserud R A,Sterba H.1999.Modeling individual tree mortality for Austrian forest species.Forest Ecology and Management,113(2/3):109-123.
Moser Jr J W.1972.Dynamics of an uneven-aged forest stand.Forest Science,18(3):184-191.
Mueller R C,Scudder C M,Porter M E,et al.2005.Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought:evidence for long-term vegetation shifts.Journal of Ecology,93(6):1085-1093.
Peet R K,Christensen N L.1987.Competition and tree death.Bioscience,37(8):586-595.
Preisler H K,Slaughter G W.1997.A stochastic model for tree survival in stands affected by annosum root disease.Forest Science,43(1):78-85.
Raftery A.1988.Approximate bayes factors for generalized linear models.Technical reports No.121,University of Washingtom.
Rose Jr C E,Hall D B,Shiver B D,et al.2006.A multilevel approach to individual tree survival prediction.Forest Science,52(1):31-43.
Ruiz-Benito P,Lines E R,Gómez-Aparicio L,et al.2013.Patterns and drivers of tree mortality in Iberian forests:climatic effects are modified by competition.PLoS ONE,8(2):e56843.
Somers G L,Oderwald R C,Harms W R,et al.1980.Predicting mortality with a Weibull function.Forest Science,26(2):291-300.
Van Mantgem P J,Stephenson N L,Byrne J C,et al.2009.Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States.Science,323(5913):521-524.
Vanclay J K.1995.Growth models for tropical forests:a synthesis of models and methods.Forest Science,41(1):7-42.
Vanclay J K.1994.Modeling forest growth and yield:applications to mixed tropical forests.School of Environmental Science and Management,312.
Wang T,Wang G,Innes J,et al.2014.Climate AP-an easy access to high-resolution climate data for Asia Pacific.Unpublished Manuscript,Faculty of Forestry,University of British Columbia,Vancouver,Canada.
Wang X,Dey D K.2010.Generalized extreme value regression for binary response data:an application to B2B electronic payments system adoption.Annals of Applied Statistics,4(4):2000-2023.
Williams R A.1994.Stand density management diagram for loblolly pine plantations in north Louisiana.Southern Journal of Applied Forestry,18(1):40-45.
Woodall W W,Grambsch P L,Thomas W.2005.Applying survival analysis to a large-scale forest inventory for assessment of tree mortality in Minnesota.Ecological Modelling,189(1/2):199-208.
Woollons R C.1998.Even-aged stand mortality estimation through a two-step regression process.Forest Ecology and Management,105(1/3):189-195.
Yang Y,Titus S J,Huang S.2003.Modeling individual tree mortality for white spruce in Alberta.Ecological Modelling,163(3):209-222.
Yang Y,Huan S,Meng S X,et al.2009.A multilevel individual tree basal area increment model for aspen in boreal mixedwood stands.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,39(11):2203-2214.
Yao X,Titus S J,MacDonald S E.2001.A generalized logistic model of individual tree mortality for aspen,white spruce,and lodgepole pine in Alberta mixed wood forests.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,31(2):283-291.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Cao Q V,et al.2011.Improving tree survival prediction with forecast combination and disaggregation.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,41(10):1928-1935.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Pang Y,et al.2014.Tree mortality in response to climate change induced drought across Beijing,China.Climatic Change,124(1):179-190.
Zhang X,Lei Y,Liu X.2015.Modeling stand mortality using Poisson mixture models with mixed-effects.iForest-Biogeosciences and Forestry,8:333-338.
Zhao D,Borders B E,Wang M,et al.2007.Modeling mortality of second-rotation loblolly pine plantations in the piedmont/upper coastal plain and lower coastal plain of the southern United States.Forest Ecology and Management,252(1/3):132-143.
Zhou G,Peng C,Li Y,et al.2013.A climate change-induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest in Southern China.Global Change Biology,19(4):1197-1210.