云南省食源性疾病暴发事件流行特征及预测模型建立
|
摘要
目的探讨云南省2010—2015年食源性疾病暴发事件的发病规律和特点,为制定预防和控制措施提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法,对云南省食源性疾病暴发事件进行分析;采用季节趋势模型对云南省2016年每月食源性疾病暴发事件数进行预测。结果共报告食源性疾病暴发事件1 562起,发病16 802人,死亡285人。6—8月为发病高峰,报告起数占全年总数的63.7%;野生蕈中毒报告起数和死亡人数占总数的58.1%和59.3%;微生物性食物中毒发病人数,占总数的41.0%;发病场所以农村家庭的报告起数、发病人数和死亡人数最多,分别占总数的60.9%、42.0%和64.6%;学校食堂发生的食源性疾病波及人数最多,平均每起发病28人。采用季节趋势模型对云南省2016年食源性疾病暴发事件趋势进行预测,食源性疾病暴发事件继续呈上升趋势,中毒高峰为6—8月。结论应加强农村家宴和学校食堂的卫生监管,有针对性地开展预防野生蕈和微生物性食物中毒知识宣传教育。季节趋势模型对云南省学校食源性疾病暴发事件的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。
[Objective]To explore the regulation and features of the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province from 2010-2015, provide the basis for developing the preventive and control measures. [Methods] Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the monthly outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province in 2016. [Results] Totally 1 562 foodborne disease outbreaks were reported,including 16 802 patients and 285 death cases. The peak season appeared June to August, which the outbreaks accounted for63.7% of the total outbreaks in whole year. The outbreaks and death cases caused by wild mushroom poisoning respectively accounted for 58.1% and 59.3% of the total, and the patients with microbial food poisoning accounted for 41.0%. The outbreaks,patients and death cases which happened in the rural families respectively accounted for 60.9%, 42.0% and 64.6% of the total.The case number of foodborne diseases in school canteens was the highest, with an average of 28 patients per outbreak. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the trend of foodborne diseases outbreaks in Yunnan Province in 2016, and the results showed that there was a rising trend, with the peak of June to August. [Conclusion] It is necessary to enhance the supervision and management of the rural family dinner and the school dining hall, carry out the targeted publicity and education of knowledge about prevention of wild mushroom and microbial food poisoning. The seasonal trend model has a good fitting effect on the outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province, and can be applied to the prediction.
[Objective]To explore the regulation and features of the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province from 2010-2015, provide the basis for developing the preventive and control measures. [Methods] Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the foodborne disease outbreaks in Yunnan Province. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the monthly outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province in 2016. [Results] Totally 1 562 foodborne disease outbreaks were reported,including 16 802 patients and 285 death cases. The peak season appeared June to August, which the outbreaks accounted for63.7% of the total outbreaks in whole year. The outbreaks and death cases caused by wild mushroom poisoning respectively accounted for 58.1% and 59.3% of the total, and the patients with microbial food poisoning accounted for 41.0%. The outbreaks,patients and death cases which happened in the rural families respectively accounted for 60.9%, 42.0% and 64.6% of the total.The case number of foodborne diseases in school canteens was the highest, with an average of 28 patients per outbreak. The seasonal trend model was used to predict the trend of foodborne diseases outbreaks in Yunnan Province in 2016, and the results showed that there was a rising trend, with the peak of June to August. [Conclusion] It is necessary to enhance the supervision and management of the rural family dinner and the school dining hall, carry out the targeted publicity and education of knowledge about prevention of wild mushroom and microbial food poisoning. The seasonal trend model has a good fitting effect on the outbreaks of foodborne diseases in Yunnan Province, and can be applied to the prediction.
引文
[1]王立贵,张霞,褚宸一,等.食源性疾病监测网络现状与展望[J].华南国防医学杂志,2012,26(1):89-90.
[2]中国预防医学科学院标准处.食品卫生国家标准汇编[M].北京:中国标准出版社,1999:210.
[3]国家食品安全风险评估中心.2010-2015年国家食源性疾病监测工作手册[Z].(2015-4-1)[2017-7-6].http://www.cfsa.net.cn/.
[4]郭海强,刘红波,曲波,等.全国伤寒、副伤寒发病的季节趋势模型研究[J].实用预防医学,2011,18(3):391-393.
[5]余加席,娄培安,张雷,等.趋势季节模型在腹泻症候群监测信息分析中的应用[J].中国医院统计,2011,18(1):7-9.
[6]黄娟.趋势季节模型在医院门诊诊疗人数预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2009,26(6):660.
[7]佡思维,王岩,何兰,等.应用趋势季节模型在痢疾发病中预测的研究[J].医学信息,2013,26(1):101-102.
[8]陈东军.2006—2012年全国食物中毒分析[J].职业与健康,2013,29(14):1750-1752.
[9]杜苏萍,王敬敬,张昭寰,等.2001—2013年中国重大食物中毒事件的分析评价[J].上海海洋大学学报,2016,25(2):306-313.
[10]余思洋,王晓雯,赵江,等.云南省2004—2010年野生蕈食物中毒分析[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2012,24(1):71-73.
[11]刘志涛,万蓉,王晓雯,等.云南省野生蕈中毒地理分布特点及其与环境因素的关系[J].职业与健康,2013,29(20):2699-2701.
[12]徐君飞,张居作.2001—2010年中国食源性疾病暴发情况分析[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(27):313-316.
[13]罗海波,何来英,叶伟杰.2004—2013年中国大陆食物中毒情况分析[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2015,27(1):45-49.
[14]胡汝源.我国食源性疾病现状及控制策略[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2007,18(3):55-56.
[15]庞璐,张哲,徐进.2006—2010年我国食源性疾病暴发简介[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2011,23(6):560-563.
[2]中国预防医学科学院标准处.食品卫生国家标准汇编[M].北京:中国标准出版社,1999:210.
[3]国家食品安全风险评估中心.2010-2015年国家食源性疾病监测工作手册[Z].(2015-4-1)[2017-7-6].http://www.cfsa.net.cn/.
[4]郭海强,刘红波,曲波,等.全国伤寒、副伤寒发病的季节趋势模型研究[J].实用预防医学,2011,18(3):391-393.
[5]余加席,娄培安,张雷,等.趋势季节模型在腹泻症候群监测信息分析中的应用[J].中国医院统计,2011,18(1):7-9.
[6]黄娟.趋势季节模型在医院门诊诊疗人数预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2009,26(6):660.
[7]佡思维,王岩,何兰,等.应用趋势季节模型在痢疾发病中预测的研究[J].医学信息,2013,26(1):101-102.
[8]陈东军.2006—2012年全国食物中毒分析[J].职业与健康,2013,29(14):1750-1752.
[9]杜苏萍,王敬敬,张昭寰,等.2001—2013年中国重大食物中毒事件的分析评价[J].上海海洋大学学报,2016,25(2):306-313.
[10]余思洋,王晓雯,赵江,等.云南省2004—2010年野生蕈食物中毒分析[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2012,24(1):71-73.
[11]刘志涛,万蓉,王晓雯,等.云南省野生蕈中毒地理分布特点及其与环境因素的关系[J].职业与健康,2013,29(20):2699-2701.
[12]徐君飞,张居作.2001—2010年中国食源性疾病暴发情况分析[J].中国农学通报,2012,28(27):313-316.
[13]罗海波,何来英,叶伟杰.2004—2013年中国大陆食物中毒情况分析[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2015,27(1):45-49.
[14]胡汝源.我国食源性疾病现状及控制策略[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2007,18(3):55-56.
[15]庞璐,张哲,徐进.2006—2010年我国食源性疾病暴发简介[J].中国食品卫生杂志,2011,23(6):560-563.