应用移动平均法的季节趋势模型对甲型病毒肝炎的预测
|
摘要
目的探讨移动平均法的季节趋势模型在甲型病毒性肝炎发病预测的应用,为采取防控措施提供科学依据。方法首先建立2009—2014年宜昌市甲型病毒性肝炎月发病率(Yc)和月份(t)之间的直线回归方程,然后建立移动平均法的季节趋势模型(Pt=Yc+Et),并将拟合值与实际值进行验证(拟合评价)。结果2009—2014年甲型病毒性肝炎月发病率(Yc)和月份(t)之间的直线回归方程(Yc=0.312~0.003t),建立移动平均法的季节趋势模型的拟合值与实际值平均相对误差为4.264%,模型验证结果较好。应用季节趋势模型可对2015年甲肝的发病率进行预测,预测的发病率有逐年下降的趋势。结论移动平均法的趋势季节模型,能较好的模拟甲肝发病的变化趋势,为制定科学的防控措施提供依据。
Objective To apply seasonal trend model based on moving average method for hepatitis A prediction,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control measure. Methods Linear regression equation and seasonal trend model of moving average method was built based on every month incidence of hepatitis A from 2009 to 2014 in Yichang City,and the fitted and actual value were judged and adopted. Results Linear regression equation of moving average method based on every month incidence of hepatitis A from 2009 to 2014 in Yichang City was Yc = 0. 312- 0. 003 t. Average relative error between the fitted and actual value was 4. 264% for Hepatitis A incidence from 2009 to 2014,the model fitted was better. Application of seasonal trend model can forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in 2015. Conclusion Seasonal trend model can predict hepatitis A incidence by time series and supply evidence for establishing control strategy of the disease.
Objective To apply seasonal trend model based on moving average method for hepatitis A prediction,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control measure. Methods Linear regression equation and seasonal trend model of moving average method was built based on every month incidence of hepatitis A from 2009 to 2014 in Yichang City,and the fitted and actual value were judged and adopted. Results Linear regression equation of moving average method based on every month incidence of hepatitis A from 2009 to 2014 in Yichang City was Yc = 0. 312- 0. 003 t. Average relative error between the fitted and actual value was 4. 264% for Hepatitis A incidence from 2009 to 2014,the model fitted was better. Application of seasonal trend model can forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in 2015. Conclusion Seasonal trend model can predict hepatitis A incidence by time series and supply evidence for establishing control strategy of the disease.
引文
[1]周雨.沈阳市和平区2008—2012年甲肝病例对照研究[J].中国卫生统计,2013,30(6):882-883.
[2]安婧,周晓曙,梁雪枫,等.甘肃省临夏州2010—2011年甲型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征[J].中国热带医学,2013,13(3):315-317.
[3]陈伟.移动平均线在合肥市肺结核疫情监测预警中的应用[J].中国防痨杂志,2011,33(10):689-691.
[4]王瑞平.两种季节趋势模型预测法的应用比较[J].中国卫生统计,2011,28(1):77-78.
[5]郭海强,刘红波,曲波,等.全国伤寒、副伤寒发病的季节趋势模型研究[J].实用预防医学杂志,2011,18(3):391-393.
[6]王瑞平,吴毅凌,郭晓芹,等.季节趋势模型预测法在流行性感冒监测中的应用[J].疾病监测杂志,2010,25(2):127-130.
[7]邱兴庆,刘敬东.标准化和基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型在流行性腮腺炎预测中的应用[J].实用预防医学杂志,2012,19(8):1154-1157.
[8]江黎霞,章良智.应用季节趋势模型预测儿科门诊人次及出院人数[J].吉林医学,2010,31(17):2629-2630.
[9]黄建英.季节趋势模型在恶性肿瘤住院患者预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2009,26(2):200-201.
[10]刘燕敏,陈园生,崔富强,等.中国2004—2009年甲型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征分析[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2010,16(5):453-456.
[11]王雷,胡樱,郑莉,等.2005—2010年湖北省病毒性肝炎发病变化分析[J].中国热带医学,2012,12(4):481-483.
[2]安婧,周晓曙,梁雪枫,等.甘肃省临夏州2010—2011年甲型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征[J].中国热带医学,2013,13(3):315-317.
[3]陈伟.移动平均线在合肥市肺结核疫情监测预警中的应用[J].中国防痨杂志,2011,33(10):689-691.
[4]王瑞平.两种季节趋势模型预测法的应用比较[J].中国卫生统计,2011,28(1):77-78.
[5]郭海强,刘红波,曲波,等.全国伤寒、副伤寒发病的季节趋势模型研究[J].实用预防医学杂志,2011,18(3):391-393.
[6]王瑞平,吴毅凌,郭晓芹,等.季节趋势模型预测法在流行性感冒监测中的应用[J].疾病监测杂志,2010,25(2):127-130.
[7]邱兴庆,刘敬东.标准化和基于移动平均法的趋势季节模型在流行性腮腺炎预测中的应用[J].实用预防医学杂志,2012,19(8):1154-1157.
[8]江黎霞,章良智.应用季节趋势模型预测儿科门诊人次及出院人数[J].吉林医学,2010,31(17):2629-2630.
[9]黄建英.季节趋势模型在恶性肿瘤住院患者预测中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2009,26(2):200-201.
[10]刘燕敏,陈园生,崔富强,等.中国2004—2009年甲型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征分析[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2010,16(5):453-456.
[11]王雷,胡樱,郑莉,等.2005—2010年湖北省病毒性肝炎发病变化分析[J].中国热带医学,2012,12(4):481-483.