副热带高压脊线北跳日期预测及其与中国初台关系的研究
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摘要
基于西太平洋副热带高压(副高)变化与西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)活动的关系,利用1980—2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析日平均、月平均数据,计算副高脊线第一次北跳至25°N或以北,30°N以南的副高北跳日期序列。选取超前于副高北跳日期的三个气候变量为预测因子,建立了1980—2008年的副高北跳日期的多元线性回归方程模型,并由此预测2009—2013年的副高北跳日期。模型的整体模拟能力较好,但在某些年份的模拟结果与实际偏差较大;模型的回报预测结果能较好地描述2009—2013年副高北跳日期的年际变化特征。进一步利用美国联合台风预警中心数据,分析显示中国初台的登陆日期与副高北跳日期显著正相关;在多数年份中,副高北跳后的1~7天内,有西北太平洋TC登陆中国。通过对比副高北跳早晚年的大气环流场发现:副高早(晚)跳年,5—7月平均的西太平洋季风槽较常年偏东(较常年不明显),季风槽南侧纬向风辐合异常(纬向风辐合异常中心偏东、偏北);同期的副高中心较常年偏北(偏南)。这些环流异常可能有利于(不利于)西北太平洋TC生成并向中国方向移动,从而造成中国初台登陆日期容易偏早(偏晚)。
The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data substituted for the observed data in this article as the actual climate situation. Base on change of Subtropical High was related with Tropical Cyclones(TC) activities in western North Pacific, the first day of Subtropical High ridge located between 25 °N and south of 30 °N(i.e. Subtropical High northward jumping day) in one year during 1980—2013 was analyzed. By analyzing and selecting three related advanced climatic variables as predictive factors, a multiple linear regression model for the Subtropical High northward jumping day during 1980—2008 was built. The regression model performed well during 2009—2013, as which could describe the interannual variation of Subtropical High jumping day. It was showed that the day of the first TC that made landfall on China was positively correlated with Subtropical High northward jumping day, and after which in 1~7 days, TC from western North Pacific made landfall on China in most of the years. During the early(late) years of Subtropical High northward jumping days, the average position of monsoon trough during May and July in western North Pacific was more eastward(was not developed yet), and zonal wind convergence anomaly was centered on south of monsoon trough(the anomaly center was more eastward and northward than which in the early years). In addition, the subtropical high was more northward(southward), while the day of the first TC made landfall on China would be early(late).
The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data substituted for the observed data in this article as the actual climate situation. Base on change of Subtropical High was related with Tropical Cyclones(TC) activities in western North Pacific, the first day of Subtropical High ridge located between 25 °N and south of 30 °N(i.e. Subtropical High northward jumping day) in one year during 1980—2013 was analyzed. By analyzing and selecting three related advanced climatic variables as predictive factors, a multiple linear regression model for the Subtropical High northward jumping day during 1980—2008 was built. The regression model performed well during 2009—2013, as which could describe the interannual variation of Subtropical High jumping day. It was showed that the day of the first TC that made landfall on China was positively correlated with Subtropical High northward jumping day, and after which in 1~7 days, TC from western North Pacific made landfall on China in most of the years. During the early(late) years of Subtropical High northward jumping days, the average position of monsoon trough during May and July in western North Pacific was more eastward(was not developed yet), and zonal wind convergence anomaly was centered on south of monsoon trough(the anomaly center was more eastward and northward than which in the early years). In addition, the subtropical high was more northward(southward), while the day of the first TC made landfall on China would be early(late).
引文
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[30]黄荣辉,陈光华.西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(5):683-694.
[31]高建芸,张秀芝,江志红,等.西北太平洋季风槽异常与热带气旋活动[J].海洋学报,2008,30(3):35-47.
[32]吕心艳,端义宏.季风槽内热带气旋生成的基本特征分析[J].气象学报,2011,69(6):990-1 000.
[2]贺海晏,简茂球,宋丽莉,等.近50a广东登陆热带气旋的若干气候特征[J].气象科学,2003,23(4):401-409.
[3]范可.西北太平洋台风生成频次的新预测因子和新预测模型[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),2007,37(9):1 260-1 266.
[4]CHAN J C L,SHI J E,LAM C M.Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western north Pacific and the south China sea[J].Wea Forecasting,1998,13(4):997-1 004.
[5]曾琮,易爱民,李晓娟,等.登陆广东热带气旋特征及其与副热带高压的关系[J].气象科技,2007,35(1):36-39.
[6]陈光华,黄荣辉.西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究[J].地球科学进展,2006,21(6):610-616.
[7]CHIA H H,ROPELEWSKI C F.The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific[J].J Climate,2002,15(20):2 934-2 944.
[8]HO C H,BAIK J J,KIM J H,et al.Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks[J].J Climate,2004,17(9):1 767-1 776.
[9]陶诗言,朱福康.夏季亚洲南部100毫巴流型的变化及其与西太平洋副热带高压进退的关系[J].气象学报,1964,34(4):385-396.
[10]刘屹岷,吴国雄.副热带高压研究回顾及对几个基本问题的再认识[J].气象学报,2000,58(4):500-512.
[11]张庆云,陶诗言.夏季西太平洋副热带高压北跳及其异常研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(5):539-548.
[12]董步文,丑纪范.西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置季节变化的实况分析和理论模拟[J].气象学报,1988,46(3):361-364.
[13]柳崇健,陶诗言.副热带高压北跳与月尖(CUSP)突变[J].中国科学(B辑),1983,13(5):474-480.
[14]朱玉先,喻世华.副热带高压季节性北跳的诊断研究[J].热带气象学报,1997,13(3):246-257.
[15]罗哲贤.热带气旋对副热带高压短期时间尺度变化的影响[J].气象学报,2001,59(5):549-559.
[16]黄荣辉,孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学,1994,18(2):141-151.
[17]蒋全荣,王宁邦.太阳辐射与西北太平洋副高季节性移动关系的研究[J].热带气象,1989,5(4):289-294.
[18]彭加毅,孙照渤.春季赤道东太平洋海温异常对西太平洋副高的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,2000,23(2):191-195.
[19]许金镜,杨林,温珍治,等.西太平洋副高脊线北抬至25°N的OLR特征及诊断分析[J].气象,2003,29(9):42-46.
[20]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1990:4-68.
[21]薛峰,王会军,何金海.马斯克林高压和澳大利亚高压的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风降水的影响[J].科学通报,2003,48(3):287-291.
[22]薛峰,林一骅,曾庆存.论大气环流的季节划分与季节突变III气候平均情况[J].大气科学,2002,26(3):307-314.
[23]高辉,刘芸芸,王永光,等.亚洲夏季风爆发早晚的新前兆信号:冬季南极涛动[J].科学通报,2012,57(36):3 516-3 521.
[24]蒋尚城.全球ITCZ的气候特征研究[J].气象学报,1988,46(2):241-245.
[25]潘菊芳.太平洋高压移动规律性的探讨[J].气象学报,1954,25(2):101-122.
[26]赵振国,陈国珍.初夏西太平洋副高南北位置长期变化的成因及预报[J].热带气象学报,1995,11(3):223-230.
[27]侯亦如,陈乾.夏季亚洲副热带急流中的长波扰动[J].气象学报,1963,33(3):339-349.
[28]叶婷婷.南海热带气旋的若干气候特征分析[D].南京:南京大学硕士论文,2013.
[29]陈联寿,丁一汇.西太平洋台风概论[M].北京:科学出版社,1979:15-75.
[30]黄荣辉,陈光华.西北太平洋热带气旋移动路径的年际变化及其机理研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(5):683-694.
[31]高建芸,张秀芝,江志红,等.西北太平洋季风槽异常与热带气旋活动[J].海洋学报,2008,30(3):35-47.
[32]吕心艳,端义宏.季风槽内热带气旋生成的基本特征分析[J].气象学报,2011,69(6):990-1 000.