黄河宁蒙河段冬季气温特点及其对凌情影响
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摘要
凌汛期气温变化及其对凌情影响规律是凌情预报和防凌调度的基础。基于近60年的气温和冰情观测数据,采用统计分析、线性倾向估计、累计距平等分析方法,研究气温变化特征及其与凌情要素之间的关系。结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以后黄河宁蒙河段凌汛期气温呈明显上升趋势,包头站1956—2013年增温速率约为0.6℃/10 a;气温与凌情关系密切,11月至翌年3月气温越高,则流凌和封河日期越晚,封冻期气温越低,则冰盖越厚且河道封冻越长;开河期若气温回升快,则河道槽蓄水增量集中释放,容易形成较大凌汛洪水;冬季气温自上游向下游逐渐降低的空间分布特征是导致宁蒙河段凌情灾害频发的重要原因,再加上河道淤积和人类活动等因素,凌情形势趋于复杂。
The changing of winter temperature and its impact on ice regime were the bases of ice forecast and flood protection in ice seasons. Some researches on temporal and spatial changing of temperature and its relations to ice regime were carried by using statistics methods and the last observation data in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River (NMYR). The results show that winter temperature has been experiencing obviously warming since the middle of 1980s,at the speed of 0.6℃/10 a since the middle of 1980s. Relationship between temperature and river ice was very close. Higher temperature in November postponed the date of ice running and freeze-up;lower temperature in ice season caused thicker and longer ice cover;and rapid temperature during river breaking-up was favorable to release of channel water storage. The feature of temperature decreasing form upstream to downstream along the river was an important reason leading to ice flood disasters. Since 1980s,winter warming leading to later freeze-up date,thinner ice cover and shorter ice duration. These changes coupled with several channel silting and human activities,increases the potential risk of ice disaster.
The changing of winter temperature and its impact on ice regime were the bases of ice forecast and flood protection in ice seasons. Some researches on temporal and spatial changing of temperature and its relations to ice regime were carried by using statistics methods and the last observation data in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River (NMYR). The results show that winter temperature has been experiencing obviously warming since the middle of 1980s,at the speed of 0.6℃/10 a since the middle of 1980s. Relationship between temperature and river ice was very close. Higher temperature in November postponed the date of ice running and freeze-up;lower temperature in ice season caused thicker and longer ice cover;and rapid temperature during river breaking-up was favorable to release of channel water storage. The feature of temperature decreasing form upstream to downstream along the river was an important reason leading to ice flood disasters. Since 1980s,winter warming leading to later freeze-up date,thinner ice cover and shorter ice duration. These changes coupled with several channel silting and human activities,increases the potential risk of ice disaster.
引文
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