电力市场环境下冀北电网交易空间预估分析
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摘要
随着本轮电力体制改革的深入推进,用电计划逐渐向市场化方向转变,电力电量的市场化交易得以确立。为保障电网安全稳定和市场交易平稳有序开展,调度部门需要全面分析本区域电网特点、供需情况等因素,提前确定未来电力市场的交易空间,为市场交易提供边界条件。如何通过科学、合理、行之有效的方法确定交易空间,是当前调度亟待解决的问题。文章提出了综合考虑负荷预测边界、清洁能源发电预测边界以及电网安全运行边界的交易空间预估策略。介绍了负荷预测和清洁能源发电边界确定方法,以及相应形成的电力市场环境下交易空间的预估模型。最后,通过实际算例,论证了模型的合理性与实用性。
Due to the advance in this new round of reformation of electric power system,the power plan is becoming market dependent.Accodingly,the market transction of electric quantity system is estabilished.The requirement in grid safety and market transaction can be satisfied only if the power dispatch departchment decides the future electricity market trading space and therefore the corresponding transacton boundary in advance.The decision should be made having analysed the characteristics of the power system and the relationship between supply and demand.An issue,however,is raised that in which way the market trading space can be decided in a scientific,reasonable and high efficient way.This paper proposesd a strategy in estimating the electricity market trading space,with the boundary of load prediction,clean energy generation predicion and the grid safety was taken into consideration.The associated calculating method and modelling process was given in the paper,and the model proposed in this paper was proved to be practical and reasonable through a practical example of the Jibei State Grid.
Due to the advance in this new round of reformation of electric power system,the power plan is becoming market dependent.Accodingly,the market transction of electric quantity system is estabilished.The requirement in grid safety and market transaction can be satisfied only if the power dispatch departchment decides the future electricity market trading space and therefore the corresponding transacton boundary in advance.The decision should be made having analysed the characteristics of the power system and the relationship between supply and demand.An issue,however,is raised that in which way the market trading space can be decided in a scientific,reasonable and high efficient way.This paper proposesd a strategy in estimating the electricity market trading space,with the boundary of load prediction,clean energy generation predicion and the grid safety was taken into consideration.The associated calculating method and modelling process was given in the paper,and the model proposed in this paper was proved to be practical and reasonable through a practical example of the Jibei State Grid.
引文
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[21]郭鸿业,陈启鑫,钟海旺,等.基于标准化金融交割曲线的现货市场建设路径设计[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(17):1-8.
[22]姜庆国,王昀昀,林海涛.基于系统动力学的电力批发市场和零售市场相互关系分析[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(24):77-84.
[23]刘思东,杨洪明,童小娇.电力期货市场的价格发现功能[J].电力自动化设备,2008,(7):57-61.
[24]朱太辉,吴忠群.发电商利用电力期货规避现货交易风险模型[J].电网技术,2008,(6):76-80.
[2]邹鹏,陈启鑫,夏清,等.国外电力现货市场建设的逻辑分析及对中国的启示与建议[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(13):18-27.
[3]何苗,王军.国外电力期货市场发展经验及其对我国的启示[J].价格理论与实践,2017,(12):78-81.
[4]周晓薇,李扬,陈昕儒,等.欧洲电力金融衍生市场发展状况及其与需求侧管理的融合[J].电力需求侧管理,2018,20(2):60-64.
[5]吴引航,曾博.国内外电力市场分析及对广西电力市场建设的启示[J].广西电业,2017,(10):32-34.
[6]周明,严宇,丁琪,等.国外典型电力市场交易结算机制及对中国的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(20):1-8,150.
[7]夏清,郭炜.协调运行的电力市场交易体系[J].中国电力,2009,42(1):1-6.
[8]陈敏曦.南方区域电力市场的探索与未来[J].中国电力企业管理,2018,(1):46-49.
[9]夏清,白杨,钟海旺,等.中国推广大用户直购电交易的制度设计与建议[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(20):1-7.
[10]唐敏,熊谋林,程乙峰.全球电力市场化改革与中国战略[J].财经问题研究,2015,(9):28-34.
[11]曹帅.中长期安全约束机组组合优化研究[D].北京:中国电力科学研究院,2016.
[12]刘敏,吴复立.电力市场环境下发电商电能分配策略研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,(25):111-117.
[13]刘妍,谭建成.南方区域大用户参与电力市场交易的现状及展望[J].南方电网技术,2017,11(11):68-74.
[14]夏清,陈雨果,陈亮.考虑月度机组组合的节能发电调度模式与方法[J].电网技术,2011,(6):27-33.
[15]王林炎,张粒子,张凡,等.售电公司购售电业务决策与风险评估[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(1):47-54,143.
[16]杨甲甲,赵俊华,文福拴,等.电力零售核心业务架构与购售电决策[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(14):10-18,20-23.
[17]沈同,夏清.实现资源时空优化配置的现货市场及其应用研究[J].智慧电力,2018,46(1):1-6,13.
[18]仇娟,许可,刘莉.电力现货交易空间及影响因素研究[J].能源与环保,2017,39(12):158-161,167.
[19]梁志飞,陈玮,张志翔,等.南方区域电力现货市场建设模式及路径探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(24):16-21,66.
[20]宋嗣博,郭红霞,杨苹,等.基于节点边际电价的电力市场分区策略研究[J].电力建设,2017,38(9):132-138.
[21]郭鸿业,陈启鑫,钟海旺,等.基于标准化金融交割曲线的现货市场建设路径设计[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(17):1-8.
[22]姜庆国,王昀昀,林海涛.基于系统动力学的电力批发市场和零售市场相互关系分析[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(24):77-84.
[23]刘思东,杨洪明,童小娇.电力期货市场的价格发现功能[J].电力自动化设备,2008,(7):57-61.
[24]朱太辉,吴忠群.发电商利用电力期货规避现货交易风险模型[J].电网技术,2008,(6):76-80.