北京市林业产业关联和结构升级研究
|
摘要
在北京市投入产出表和北京市林业统计年鉴数据的基础上,利用投入产出分析中的产业关联指标和产业结构超前系数、Moore结构变化值法,分析北京市林业产业结构特点和变化趋势。结果表明:北京市三大产业与林业产业的关联度从大到小依次为第一产业、第三产业、第二产业;北京市林业产业停留在粗放型的发展阶段,属于中间产品型基础产业; 2007—2016年,北京市林业三大产业发生较大的结构性变化,第三产业发展迅速,并逐渐趋于稳定。针对北京市林业产业的结构优化与可持续性发展,首先应当继续推动第一产业的发展,以市场为导向发展林下经济;其次要积极推动新兴产业的发展,更有必要加大林业第三产业的发展,促使北京市林业产业结构由"一、三、二"向"三、一、二"转变;最后要打造森林生态旅游和森林康养,增强林业第三产业对经济的贡献作用。
⑴ Background——In order to adapt to the development of forestry industry,the forestry industry structure must meet new requirements to face new challenges,adjust and optimize according to local conditions. It is still an urgent problem for Beijing forestry industry to have a deep understanding of the changes in forestry industrial linkage and internal industrial structure,and to further promote the optimization and upgrading of forestry industrial structure.⑵ Methods——The industrial linkage degree of Beijing forestry is analyzed by using the relevant calculation method of input-output model. The industrial structure upgrading direction and speed of three major forestry industries in Beijing are calculated by using the industrial structure advance coefficient and the Moore structural change value method.⑶ Results——①The linkage degree between the three major industries and forestry industry in Beijing is:primary industry>tertiary industry >secondary industry. Beijing forestry industry occupies the dominant position.The linkage degree between forestry industry and primary industry is the greatest. The linkage degree between tertiary industry and tertiary industry is gradually rising. The linkage degree of secondary industry is relatively low,which indicates that Beijing forestry industry is weak due to its ecological and social function positioning.The development of the secondary industry is weak based on intermediate products,and the development of intensive processing is slow. However,compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry,the development of Beijing forestry industry has a strong promotion effect on economy,and a great contribution to economic development. ②In 2007-2016,the development share of the primary and secondary industries of forestry industry is declining,while the industrial structure advance coefficient of the tertiary industry of forestry industry is greater than 1( 2. 43). The upgrading direction is in the advanced state. The overall structure will be transformed and upgraded to the tertiary industry. The industrial structure is expected to move from the original "primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry" to "primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry" and finally to "tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry". ③It can be seen from the coefficient of change in industrial structure that the structural changes of Beijing forestry industry tend to be stable,showing a steady upward trend,and the decline in volatility after 2012 is stable within the range of 0. 1-0. 2.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First of all,the forestry primary industry is a basic industry. The development of ecological public welfare forests and the construction of green and livable places are the main tasks of the current ecological civilization construction of the capital,but we should also vigorously develop the under-forest economy and promote the coordinated development of various mixed modes. Secondly,it is necessary to appropriately explore the development space of the secondary industry of Beijing forestry industry,moderately develop the non-timber forest product processing industry of forestry system,actively promote the development of emerging industries,and promote technological innovation. Finally,we should vigorously develop the forestry tertiary industry,and promote the transformation of Beijing forestry industry structure from "primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry" to "tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry". It is necessary to continue to develop and strengthen forest tourism and leisure,improve the forestry management and service level,develop the forest ecological landscape tourism industry with different characteristics and so on.
⑴ Background——In order to adapt to the development of forestry industry,the forestry industry structure must meet new requirements to face new challenges,adjust and optimize according to local conditions. It is still an urgent problem for Beijing forestry industry to have a deep understanding of the changes in forestry industrial linkage and internal industrial structure,and to further promote the optimization and upgrading of forestry industrial structure.⑵ Methods——The industrial linkage degree of Beijing forestry is analyzed by using the relevant calculation method of input-output model. The industrial structure upgrading direction and speed of three major forestry industries in Beijing are calculated by using the industrial structure advance coefficient and the Moore structural change value method.⑶ Results——①The linkage degree between the three major industries and forestry industry in Beijing is:primary industry>tertiary industry >secondary industry. Beijing forestry industry occupies the dominant position.The linkage degree between forestry industry and primary industry is the greatest. The linkage degree between tertiary industry and tertiary industry is gradually rising. The linkage degree of secondary industry is relatively low,which indicates that Beijing forestry industry is weak due to its ecological and social function positioning.The development of the secondary industry is weak based on intermediate products,and the development of intensive processing is slow. However,compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry,the development of Beijing forestry industry has a strong promotion effect on economy,and a great contribution to economic development. ②In 2007-2016,the development share of the primary and secondary industries of forestry industry is declining,while the industrial structure advance coefficient of the tertiary industry of forestry industry is greater than 1( 2. 43). The upgrading direction is in the advanced state. The overall structure will be transformed and upgraded to the tertiary industry. The industrial structure is expected to move from the original "primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry" to "primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry" and finally to "tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry". ③It can be seen from the coefficient of change in industrial structure that the structural changes of Beijing forestry industry tend to be stable,showing a steady upward trend,and the decline in volatility after 2012 is stable within the range of 0. 1-0. 2.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First of all,the forestry primary industry is a basic industry. The development of ecological public welfare forests and the construction of green and livable places are the main tasks of the current ecological civilization construction of the capital,but we should also vigorously develop the under-forest economy and promote the coordinated development of various mixed modes. Secondly,it is necessary to appropriately explore the development space of the secondary industry of Beijing forestry industry,moderately develop the non-timber forest product processing industry of forestry system,actively promote the development of emerging industries,and promote technological innovation. Finally,we should vigorously develop the forestry tertiary industry,and promote the transformation of Beijing forestry industry structure from "primary industry,tertiary industry and secondary industry" to "tertiary industry,primary industry and secondary industry". It is necessary to continue to develop and strengthen forest tourism and leisure,improve the forestry management and service level,develop the forest ecological landscape tourism industry with different characteristics and so on.
引文
[1]张颖,杨桂红,李卓蔚.基于DEA模型的北京林业投入产出效率分析[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(2):105-112.
[2]杨红强,聂影.中国木材加工产业转型升级及区域优化研究[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(5):90-94,112.
[3]李元元.北京市林业产业结构优化及相关问题研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2006:45-54.
[4]齐联,胡耀升.新常态下我国林业产业形势分析[J].林业资源管理,2017(3):6-9,30.
[5]钱小瑜.中国木材工业产业结构调整与升级[J].国际木业,2015,45(9):8-12.
[6]张壮,赵红艳.改革开放以来中国林业政策的演变特征与变迁启示[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):1-6,98.
[7] KUZNTES S. Quantitative aspects of the economic growth of nations:II. industrail distribution of national product and labor forece[J]. Economic Development and Culture Change,1957,5(S4):1-111.
[8] KUZNTES S. Modern economic growth:Findings and reflections[J]. American Economic Review,1973,63(3):247-258.
[9] PEI M. China's Slowing Economy:The Worst Is yet to Come[EB/OL].(2015-01-21)[2018-12-19]. http://fortune.com/2015/01/21/china-economy-growth-slowdown/.
[10]李力行,申广军.经济开发区、地区比较优势与产业结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(3):885-910.
[11]陶黎,曹建华,朱惟豪.基于投入产出方法的江西林业产业关联特性分析[J].林业经济问题,2006,26(6):510-513.
[12]姜法竹,高昂.黑龙江省畜牧业产业关联效应比较研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(11):76-82.
[13]房俊峰,赵建强.我国旅游业的产业关联分析:基于《2007年中国投入产出表》[J].生态经济,2010(9):131-133.
[14]王琪延,徐玲.基于产业关联视角的北京旅游业与农业融合研究[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(8):102-110.
[15]谢艺环,魏远竹.台湾农业产业关联分析及其对大陆的启示[J].台湾农业探索,2015(1):14-18.
[16]房俊峰.我国环保业的结构、关联与发展:基于投入产出表的分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(8):196-199.
[17] ZAGLER M. Economic growth,structural change,and search unemployment[J]. Journal of Economics,2009,96(1):63-78.
[18] MOORE J H. A measure of structural change in output[J]. Review of Income and Wealth,1978,24(1):105-118.
[19]辛姝玉,张大红.低碳经济背景下北京市林业产业结构及竞争力研究[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(4):357-362.
[20]熊立春,王凤婷,程宝栋.中国林业产业结构优化及其影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):378-386.
[21] TYRVAINEN L,SILVENNOINEN H,HALLIKAINEN V. Effect of the season and forest management on the visual quality of the nature-based tourism environment:A case from Finnish Lapland[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research,2017,32(4):349-359.
[22]罗小锋,王泽均,李兆亮,等.林业产业结构变动及其经济贡献的比较分析[J].统计与决策,2017(14):93-97.
[23] SUH J. The role of the forestry industry for the success of community forestry:A comparative input-output analysis accross India and the Phillippiness[J]. Southern Forests:a Journal of Forest Science,2014,76(1):29-36.
[24]张建成,智荣.内蒙古林业产业结构的分析与优化调整研究:基于灰色关联度和灰色发展决策分析[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):78-85,110.
[25]李亚云,杨伶,谢屹,等.江西省林业主导产业识别及产业结构优化研究[J].林业经济,2016,38(9):48-54.
[26]吕洁华,刘艳迪,付思琦,等.黑龙江省林下经济优势产业的选择分析:基于偏离-份额分析法[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):72-77,109.
[27]刘铁铎,张越杰.林权改革背景下吉林省林业产业结构的优化[J].吉林农业大学学报,2018,40(6):761-766.
[28]北京市园林绿化局.北京市“十三五”时期园林绿化发展规划[EB/OL].(2017-06-02)[2018-12-19]. http://zfxxgk. beijing. gov. cn/.
[29]王永康.投入产出分析中直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数的关系探讨[J].河北省科学院学报,2015,32(1):9-12.
[30]刘合光,潘启龙,谢思娜.基于投入产出模型的中美农业产业关联效应比较分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(11):4-10,20.
[31]汤毅.畜牧业产业关联与产业波及效应研究探讨[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2016(14):50-51.
[32]赵正,高阳,卢琳琳,等.北京市林业产业结构的灰色动态关联分析[J].资源开发与市场,2014,30(8):929-933.
[33]陈文汇,刘俊昌,许单云.基于投入产出模型的林业产业发展动态分析[J].林业经济问题,2012,32(3):236-242.
[34]向红玲,陈昭玖,廖文梅.长江经济带林业经济增长、产业结构演变及其差异分析[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(5):44-51,105.
[35]尚旭东,宋国宇.基于灰色关联分析的河北省林业产业结构研究[J].北方园艺,2011(2):212-216.
[2]杨红强,聂影.中国木材加工产业转型升级及区域优化研究[J].农业经济问题,2011,32(5):90-94,112.
[3]李元元.北京市林业产业结构优化及相关问题研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2006:45-54.
[4]齐联,胡耀升.新常态下我国林业产业形势分析[J].林业资源管理,2017(3):6-9,30.
[5]钱小瑜.中国木材工业产业结构调整与升级[J].国际木业,2015,45(9):8-12.
[6]张壮,赵红艳.改革开放以来中国林业政策的演变特征与变迁启示[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):1-6,98.
[7] KUZNTES S. Quantitative aspects of the economic growth of nations:II. industrail distribution of national product and labor forece[J]. Economic Development and Culture Change,1957,5(S4):1-111.
[8] KUZNTES S. Modern economic growth:Findings and reflections[J]. American Economic Review,1973,63(3):247-258.
[9] PEI M. China's Slowing Economy:The Worst Is yet to Come[EB/OL].(2015-01-21)[2018-12-19]. http://fortune.com/2015/01/21/china-economy-growth-slowdown/.
[10]李力行,申广军.经济开发区、地区比较优势与产业结构调整[J].经济学(季刊),2015,14(3):885-910.
[11]陶黎,曹建华,朱惟豪.基于投入产出方法的江西林业产业关联特性分析[J].林业经济问题,2006,26(6):510-513.
[12]姜法竹,高昂.黑龙江省畜牧业产业关联效应比较研究[J].农业技术经济,2010(11):76-82.
[13]房俊峰,赵建强.我国旅游业的产业关联分析:基于《2007年中国投入产出表》[J].生态经济,2010(9):131-133.
[14]王琪延,徐玲.基于产业关联视角的北京旅游业与农业融合研究[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(8):102-110.
[15]谢艺环,魏远竹.台湾农业产业关联分析及其对大陆的启示[J].台湾农业探索,2015(1):14-18.
[16]房俊峰.我国环保业的结构、关联与发展:基于投入产出表的分析[J].生态经济,2016,32(8):196-199.
[17] ZAGLER M. Economic growth,structural change,and search unemployment[J]. Journal of Economics,2009,96(1):63-78.
[18] MOORE J H. A measure of structural change in output[J]. Review of Income and Wealth,1978,24(1):105-118.
[19]辛姝玉,张大红.低碳经济背景下北京市林业产业结构及竞争力研究[J].林业经济问题,2014,34(4):357-362.
[20]熊立春,王凤婷,程宝栋.中国林业产业结构优化及其影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2018,39(3):378-386.
[21] TYRVAINEN L,SILVENNOINEN H,HALLIKAINEN V. Effect of the season and forest management on the visual quality of the nature-based tourism environment:A case from Finnish Lapland[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research,2017,32(4):349-359.
[22]罗小锋,王泽均,李兆亮,等.林业产业结构变动及其经济贡献的比较分析[J].统计与决策,2017(14):93-97.
[23] SUH J. The role of the forestry industry for the success of community forestry:A comparative input-output analysis accross India and the Phillippiness[J]. Southern Forests:a Journal of Forest Science,2014,76(1):29-36.
[24]张建成,智荣.内蒙古林业产业结构的分析与优化调整研究:基于灰色关联度和灰色发展决策分析[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):78-85,110.
[25]李亚云,杨伶,谢屹,等.江西省林业主导产业识别及产业结构优化研究[J].林业经济,2016,38(9):48-54.
[26]吕洁华,刘艳迪,付思琦,等.黑龙江省林下经济优势产业的选择分析:基于偏离-份额分析法[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(4):72-77,109.
[27]刘铁铎,张越杰.林权改革背景下吉林省林业产业结构的优化[J].吉林农业大学学报,2018,40(6):761-766.
[28]北京市园林绿化局.北京市“十三五”时期园林绿化发展规划[EB/OL].(2017-06-02)[2018-12-19]. http://zfxxgk. beijing. gov. cn/.
[29]王永康.投入产出分析中直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数的关系探讨[J].河北省科学院学报,2015,32(1):9-12.
[30]刘合光,潘启龙,谢思娜.基于投入产出模型的中美农业产业关联效应比较分析[J].中国农村经济,2012(11):4-10,20.
[31]汤毅.畜牧业产业关联与产业波及效应研究探讨[J].黑龙江畜牧兽医,2016(14):50-51.
[32]赵正,高阳,卢琳琳,等.北京市林业产业结构的灰色动态关联分析[J].资源开发与市场,2014,30(8):929-933.
[33]陈文汇,刘俊昌,许单云.基于投入产出模型的林业产业发展动态分析[J].林业经济问题,2012,32(3):236-242.
[34]向红玲,陈昭玖,廖文梅.长江经济带林业经济增长、产业结构演变及其差异分析[J].林业经济问题,2018,38(5):44-51,105.
[35]尚旭东,宋国宇.基于灰色关联分析的河北省林业产业结构研究[J].北方园艺,2011(2):212-216.