服务业具有本土市场效应吗——基于分位数面板模型的研究
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摘要
服务业出口是否随着需求规模的扩大而增加?内需与外需对出口服务贸易的贡献孰大?服务业是否具有本土市场效应?针对以上问题,本文首先构建了一个包含需求在内的三维影响因素模型,从需求维度出发研究服务业出口影响因素的作用机制。其次,利用包括中国在内的24个国家2000—2012年的双边贸易面板数据并采取分位数回归方法进行实证检验,结果显示:(1)整体来看,服务业不存在本土市场效应;(2)在服务业出口初期,即在服务业出口量较小的时期,服务业具有本土市场效应;(3)在服务业出口中后期,即在服务业出口量较大的时期,服务业不具有本土市场效应。因此,适时地实施扩大内需政策有助于挖掘国内市场潜力,带动服务业的进一步出口,发挥服务业的本土市场效应。
With the expansion of demand, does service trade increase? Domestic demand and external demand, which contributes more to export of service trade? Does the service industry have the home market effects? To solve the above problems, firstly, this paper constructs a three-dimensional model that contains demand factor, studying how the factors influence exports of service trade. Secondly, the paper uses the method of quantile regression to analyze the bilateral trade panel date of 24 countries including China from 2000 to 2012. The results show that:(1) as a whole, service industry does not have the home market effect;(2) in the early stage of exporting, service industry has the home market effect;(3) while in the late stage of exporting, service sector does not have the home market effect. Therefore, implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand in time will contribute to excavate the potential of domestic market, promote more exports of service trade and exert the home market effect of services industry.
With the expansion of demand, does service trade increase? Domestic demand and external demand, which contributes more to export of service trade? Does the service industry have the home market effects? To solve the above problems, firstly, this paper constructs a three-dimensional model that contains demand factor, studying how the factors influence exports of service trade. Secondly, the paper uses the method of quantile regression to analyze the bilateral trade panel date of 24 countries including China from 2000 to 2012. The results show that:(1) as a whole, service industry does not have the home market effect;(2) in the early stage of exporting, service industry has the home market effect;(3) while in the late stage of exporting, service sector does not have the home market effect. Therefore, implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand in time will contribute to excavate the potential of domestic market, promote more exports of service trade and exert the home market effect of services industry.
引文
[1]刘志彪.基于内需的经济全球化:中国分享第二波全球化红利的战略选择[J].中国经济转型与发展研究,2012(2):51-59.
[2]毛艳华,李敬子.中国服务业出口的本土市场效应研究[J].经济研究,2015(8):98-113.
[3]陈启斐、王晶晶、岳中刚.扩大内需战略能否扭转我国服务贸易逆差——来自我国和23个OECD国家的面板数据分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(2):86-95.
[4]张帆、潘佐红.本土市场效应及其对中国省间生产和贸易的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2006(2):307-328.
[5]Amiti M.Inter-industry Trade in Manufactures:Does Country Size Matter[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,2:231-255.
[6]Markusen J R.Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs[J].American Economic Review,1989,79:85-95.
[7]Deardorff A V.Comparative Advantage and International Trade and Investment in Service[R].Research Seminar in International Economics,The University of Michigan,1985.
[8]Luder Schuknecht,Rosa P·rez-Esteve,Manuscript Date.A Quantitative Assessment of Electronic Commerce[EB].(1999-09-06).http://www.wto.org.
[9]Francois J.The Next WTO Round:North-South Stakes in New Market Access Negotiations[M].Adelaide:Centre for International Economic Studies,2001.
[10]Keller W.Trade and the Transmission of Technology[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,1:5-24.
[11]Eaton J,Kortum S.Trade in Ideas Patenting and Productivity in the OECD[J].Journal of International Economics,1996,4:251-278.
[12]Davis D,Weinstein D.Does Economic Geography Matter for International Specialisation?[C].NNER Working Paper No.5706,1996.
[13]Hanson G H,Xiang C.The Home Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns[J].American Economic Review,2004,4:1108-1129.
[14]Duranton G,Puga D.Nursery Cities:Urban Diversity,Process Innovation,and the Life Cycle of Products[J].American Economic Review,2001,5:1454-1477.
[15]Kimura F,Lee H.The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services[J].Reviews of World Economics,2006,1:92-121.
[16]Chen C M,Zeng D Z.The Home Market Effect:Beyond the Constant Elasticity of Substitution[C].Tohoku University Working Paper,2014.
[17]Ceglowski J.Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?[J].Review of World Economics,2006,2:307-329.
[18]Crozet,Matthieu,Federico Trionfetti.Trade Costs and the Home Market Effect[C].CEPII research center working papers 2007-05,2007.
[19]Grossman G,Krueger A.Enviromental impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement[M].The U.S.Mexico Free Trade Agreement,Cambridge,MA,The MIT Press,1993.
(1)“本土市场效应”一词最早在1980年由美国经济学家克鲁格曼(Krugman)提出,他认为在规模经济和报酬递增的假设下,出口国内需市场的扩大可以增加出口量。
(2)Grunfeld和Moxnes(2003)指出,如果贸易国双方同处一个自由贸易区(FTA),那么服务贸易的开展会变得更便利,这是因为自贸区的存在降低了服务贸易壁垒。
(3)Helpman E,Krugman P.Market Structure and Foreign Trade:Increasing Returns,Imperfect Competition and the International Economy[J].Journal of International Economics,1986,2:183—187.
(4)本文所选取的23个OECD国家分别是:澳大利亚、奥地利、比利时、加拿大、捷克、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、匈牙利、爱尔兰、意大利、日本、韩国、荷兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、英国和美国。
(5)数据来源可参见www.timeanddate.com网站。
(6)该变量是一个哑变量。如果两国有共同边界,那么该变量的值为1,否则为0。
(7)这也是一个哑变量。如果两个国家同处于一个贸易区则记为1,否则记为0。
(8)该指标是一个哑变量。如果两国拥有相同的官方语言,则记为1,否则记为0。
(9)R.Feenstra,A.Rose,J.Markusen.Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade,Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,34(2):430-447.
(10)其中,分位数回归最早于1978年由柯恩克(Koenker)和巴塞特(Bassett)提出,是一种基于被解释变量y的条件分布来拟合解释变量x的线性函数的回归方法。
[2]毛艳华,李敬子.中国服务业出口的本土市场效应研究[J].经济研究,2015(8):98-113.
[3]陈启斐、王晶晶、岳中刚.扩大内需战略能否扭转我国服务贸易逆差——来自我国和23个OECD国家的面板数据分析[J].国际贸易问题,2014(2):86-95.
[4]张帆、潘佐红.本土市场效应及其对中国省间生产和贸易的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2006(2):307-328.
[5]Amiti M.Inter-industry Trade in Manufactures:Does Country Size Matter[J].Journal of International Economics,1998,2:231-255.
[6]Markusen J R.Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs[J].American Economic Review,1989,79:85-95.
[7]Deardorff A V.Comparative Advantage and International Trade and Investment in Service[R].Research Seminar in International Economics,The University of Michigan,1985.
[8]Luder Schuknecht,Rosa P·rez-Esteve,Manuscript Date.A Quantitative Assessment of Electronic Commerce[EB].(1999-09-06).http://www.wto.org.
[9]Francois J.The Next WTO Round:North-South Stakes in New Market Access Negotiations[M].Adelaide:Centre for International Economic Studies,2001.
[10]Keller W.Trade and the Transmission of Technology[J].Journal of Economic Growth,2002,1:5-24.
[11]Eaton J,Kortum S.Trade in Ideas Patenting and Productivity in the OECD[J].Journal of International Economics,1996,4:251-278.
[12]Davis D,Weinstein D.Does Economic Geography Matter for International Specialisation?[C].NNER Working Paper No.5706,1996.
[13]Hanson G H,Xiang C.The Home Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns[J].American Economic Review,2004,4:1108-1129.
[14]Duranton G,Puga D.Nursery Cities:Urban Diversity,Process Innovation,and the Life Cycle of Products[J].American Economic Review,2001,5:1454-1477.
[15]Kimura F,Lee H.The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services[J].Reviews of World Economics,2006,1:92-121.
[16]Chen C M,Zeng D Z.The Home Market Effect:Beyond the Constant Elasticity of Substitution[C].Tohoku University Working Paper,2014.
[17]Ceglowski J.Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?[J].Review of World Economics,2006,2:307-329.
[18]Crozet,Matthieu,Federico Trionfetti.Trade Costs and the Home Market Effect[C].CEPII research center working papers 2007-05,2007.
[19]Grossman G,Krueger A.Enviromental impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement[M].The U.S.Mexico Free Trade Agreement,Cambridge,MA,The MIT Press,1993.
(1)“本土市场效应”一词最早在1980年由美国经济学家克鲁格曼(Krugman)提出,他认为在规模经济和报酬递增的假设下,出口国内需市场的扩大可以增加出口量。
(2)Grunfeld和Moxnes(2003)指出,如果贸易国双方同处一个自由贸易区(FTA),那么服务贸易的开展会变得更便利,这是因为自贸区的存在降低了服务贸易壁垒。
(3)Helpman E,Krugman P.Market Structure and Foreign Trade:Increasing Returns,Imperfect Competition and the International Economy[J].Journal of International Economics,1986,2:183—187.
(4)本文所选取的23个OECD国家分别是:澳大利亚、奥地利、比利时、加拿大、捷克、丹麦、芬兰、法国、德国、希腊、匈牙利、爱尔兰、意大利、日本、韩国、荷兰、挪威、波兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、英国和美国。
(5)数据来源可参见www.timeanddate.com网站。
(6)该变量是一个哑变量。如果两国有共同边界,那么该变量的值为1,否则为0。
(7)这也是一个哑变量。如果两个国家同处于一个贸易区则记为1,否则记为0。
(8)该指标是一个哑变量。如果两国拥有相同的官方语言,则记为1,否则记为0。
(9)R.Feenstra,A.Rose,J.Markusen.Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade,Canadian Journal of Economics,2001,34(2):430-447.
(10)其中,分位数回归最早于1978年由柯恩克(Koenker)和巴塞特(Bassett)提出,是一种基于被解释变量y的条件分布来拟合解释变量x的线性函数的回归方法。