基于排队论的反恐警力优化配置策略研究
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摘要
【目的】应用排队论模型,优化反恐警力配置策略,提高反恐效率和效果。【方法】在M/M/1/?和M/M/N/?两类排队模型的基础上,构建两种反恐警力优化配置模型,分别求解最优警力配置方案,通过算例对两种警力优化配置模型进行比较分析。【结果】基于M/M/N/?排队模型的反恐警力配置模型在反恐警力配置效率和恐怖袭击案件处置效率方面更具优势。【局限】由于实际恐怖袭击案件数据和警力数据获取受限,未进行实际数据的验证。【结论】应用排队论模型可以实现反恐警力资源的有效配置,尤其应用M/M/N/?模型更具优势,可以有效提高反恐警力配置效率和恐怖袭击案件处置效率。
[Objective] This paper optimizes the deployment of anti-terrorist police resources based on the queueing theory, aiming to improve the effectiveness of counterterrorism actions. [Methods] First, we proposed two optimal anti-terrorist policing strategies based on the M/M/1/? and M/M/N/? queueing models. Then, we compared the performance of the two models with simulation cases on four factors. [Results] We found that the M/M/N/? model had better performance. [Limitations] We did not examine the proposed model with real world anti-terrorism and policing data. [Conclusions] The M/M/N/? queueing model could help us create better anti-terrorist policing strategies.
[Objective] This paper optimizes the deployment of anti-terrorist police resources based on the queueing theory, aiming to improve the effectiveness of counterterrorism actions. [Methods] First, we proposed two optimal anti-terrorist policing strategies based on the M/M/1/? and M/M/N/? queueing models. Then, we compared the performance of the two models with simulation cases on four factors. [Results] We found that the M/M/N/? model had better performance. [Limitations] We did not examine the proposed model with real world anti-terrorism and policing data. [Conclusions] The M/M/N/? queueing model could help us create better anti-terrorist policing strategies.
引文
[1]宋汀,曹伟.2017年上半年国际恐怖主义态势报告[J].中国信息安全,2017(9):14-17.(Song Ting,Cao Wei.International Terrorism Situation Report in the First Half of2017[J].China Information Security,2017(9):14-17.)
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[4]刘枧,张怀学,王祥珍.公安机关大部门大警种制改革研究--以贵州试点为例[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2018,34(2):12-20.(Liu Jian,Zhang Huaixue,Wang Xiangzhen.A Study on the Reform of Public Security Organs’Large Scale Police System--Taking Guizhou Pilot as an Example[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2018,34(2):12-20.)
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[6]王大中.流动人口与警力配置[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2003,19(4):56-61.(Wang Dazhong.The Issue of Migratory Population and the Distribution of Police Force[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2003,19(4):56-61.)
[7]刘忠轶,解易,高岩,等.基于DEA模型的警力资源配置效率研究[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2015,31(6):58-64.(Liu Zhongyi,Xie Yi,Gao Yan,et al.Research on Police Resource Allocation Efficiency Based on DEAModel[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2015,31(6):58-64.)
[8]王二院.多元线性回归模型在警力资源配置中的应用[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2013,19(1):44-50.(Wang Eryuan.Application of Multiple Linear Regression Model in Police Resources Allocation[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Science and Technology,2013,19(1):44-50.)
[9]李侠,王二院.派出所110警情排队模型的构建[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2013,19(3):52-59.(Li Xia,Wang Eryuan.Construction of 110 Police Station Queuing Model in Police Station[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Science and Technology,2013,19(3):52-59.)
[10]王大伟.欧美警察科学原理[M].北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2007.(Wang Dawei.Principles of Police Science in Europe and America[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Chinese People’s Public Security University,2007.)
[11]Gorki?P.Policing Organised Crime:A Paradox of Transition?[A]//Alenka?elih,Ale?Zavr?nik.Crime and Transition in Central and Eastern Europe[M].Springer,2014:97-116.
[12]Charles L E,Burchfiel C M,Fekedulegn D,et al.Shift Work and Sleep:The Buffalo Police Health Study[J].Policing,2007,30(2):215-227.
[13]Kaplan E H,Kress M,Szechtman R.Confronting Entrenched Insurgents[J].Operations Research,2010,58(2):329-341.
[14]Mukhopadhyay A,Zhang C,Vorobeychik Y,et al.Optimal Allocation of Police Patrol Resources Using a Continuous-Time Crime Model[A]//Carthy S M M,Sinha A,Tambe M,et al.Data Exfiltration Detection and Prevention:Virtually Distributed POMDPs for Practically Safer Networks[M].Springer,2016:139-158.
[15]Kennedy L W,Caplan J M,Piza E.Risk Clusters,Hotspots,and Spatial Intelligence:Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2011,27(3):339-362.
[16]程元军,罗利.基于排队论和整数规划的银行柜员弹性排班模型[J].管理学报,2010,7(10):1558-1565.(Cheng Yuanjun,Luo Li.A Teller Scheduling Model Based on Queuing Theory and Integer Programming[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2010,7(10):1558-1565.)
[17]蔡文婧,葛连升.基于排队论的银行业务窗口设置优化[J].山东大学学报:工学版,2013,43(3):23-29.(Cai Wenjing,Ge Liansheng.Optimization of Bank Counter Setting Based on Queuing Theory[J].Journal of Shandong University:Engineering Science,2013,43(3):23-29.)
[18]朱明珠,齐二石,杨甫勤.基于开排队网络的医院门诊服务台优化配置[J].工业工程与管理,2016,21(5):129-133,140.(Zhu Mingzhu,Qi Ershi,Yang Fuqin.The Resource Optimization of Service Desks in the Outpatient Based on the Open Queuing Network[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2016,21(5):129-133,140.)
[19]王楠,武爱文.运用M/D/1和M/G/1排队模型配置医院门诊收费窗口资源[J].中国卫生统计,2015,32(4):680-682.(Wang Nan,Wu Aiwen.Applying M/D/1 and M/G/1 Queuing Model to Allocate Resources on Outpatient Billing Service in Hospital[J].Chinese Journal of Health Statistics,2015,32(4):680-682.)
[20]黄东宾,王扬帆.制造企业成品出入库两级排队协同服务模型[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(6):250-257.(Huang Dongbin,Wang Yangfan.A Two-Stage Queuing Model for Coordinating the Product Entry-Exit Service of Manufacturers’Warehouse[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2016,25(6):250-257.)
[21]刀荣贵,吕小波,王金良,等.基于排队论的卷烟生产物流服务台数量优化方法[J].烟草科技,2016,49(8):89-93.(Dao Ronggui,Lv Xiaobo,Wang Jinliang,et al.Optimization Method for Number of Logistics Servicer Stations in Cigarette Production Based on Queuing Theory[J].Tobacco Science and Technology,2016,49(8):89-93.)
[22]杨亚东,刘传波.基于单重休假规则M/G/1的交汇区域船舶通航能力计算模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2010,36(3):17-20,30.(Yang Yadong,Liu Chuanbo.Vessel Transit Capacity of Cross Area Channel Based on Single Vacation M/G/1 Model[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2016,36(3):17-20,30.)
[23]刘敬贤,韩晓宝,易湘平.基于排队论的受限航道通过能力计算[J].中国航海,2008,31(3):261-264,268.(Liu Jingxian,Han Xiaobao,Yi Xiangping.Capacity Analysis of Restricted Channels Based on the Queuing Theory[J].Navigation of China,2008,31(3):261-264,268.)
[24]Gao Z Y,Qu Y C,Li X G,et al.Simulating the Dynamic Escape Process in Large Public Places[J].Operations Research,2014,62(6):1344-1357.
[25]Kaplan E H.Staffing Models for Covert Counterterrorism Agencies[J].Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2013,47(1):2-8.
[26]Taufemback C,Silva S D.Queuing Theory Applied to the Optimal Management of Bank Excess Reserves[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2012,391(4):1381-1387.
[27]孙荣恒,李建平.排队论基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.(Sun Rongheng,Li Jianping.The Basis of Queuing Theory[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.)
[2]Schneider F,Brück T,Meierrieks D.The Economics of Counterterrorism:A Survey[J].Journal of Economic Surveys,2015,29(1):131-157.
[3]赵炜.公安机关大部门制改革问题研究[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2016,32(6):75-81.(Zhao Wei.Study on the Reform of the Large Department System of Public Security Organs[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2016,32(6):75-81.)
[4]刘枧,张怀学,王祥珍.公安机关大部门大警种制改革研究--以贵州试点为例[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2018,34(2):12-20.(Liu Jian,Zhang Huaixue,Wang Xiangzhen.A Study on the Reform of Public Security Organs’Large Scale Police System--Taking Guizhou Pilot as an Example[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2018,34(2):12-20.)
[5]解源源,史全增.基层公安机关警力不足的类型化分析及改革路径[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2014,30(4):37-43.(Xie Yuanyuan,Shi Quanzeng.The Type Analysis and Reform Path of Inadequate Police Force in the Grass-roots Public Security Organs[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2014,30(4):37-43.)
[6]王大中.流动人口与警力配置[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2003,19(4):56-61.(Wang Dazhong.The Issue of Migratory Population and the Distribution of Police Force[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2003,19(4):56-61.)
[7]刘忠轶,解易,高岩,等.基于DEA模型的警力资源配置效率研究[J].中国人民公安大学学报:社会科学版,2015,31(6):58-64.(Liu Zhongyi,Xie Yi,Gao Yan,et al.Research on Police Resource Allocation Efficiency Based on DEAModel[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Social Sciences Edition,2015,31(6):58-64.)
[8]王二院.多元线性回归模型在警力资源配置中的应用[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2013,19(1):44-50.(Wang Eryuan.Application of Multiple Linear Regression Model in Police Resources Allocation[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Science and Technology,2013,19(1):44-50.)
[9]李侠,王二院.派出所110警情排队模型的构建[J].中国人民公安大学学报:自然科学版,2013,19(3):52-59.(Li Xia,Wang Eryuan.Construction of 110 Police Station Queuing Model in Police Station[J].Journal of People’s Public Security University of China:Science and Technology,2013,19(3):52-59.)
[10]王大伟.欧美警察科学原理[M].北京:中国人民公安大学出版社,2007.(Wang Dawei.Principles of Police Science in Europe and America[M].Beijing:Publishing House of Chinese People’s Public Security University,2007.)
[11]Gorki?P.Policing Organised Crime:A Paradox of Transition?[A]//Alenka?elih,Ale?Zavr?nik.Crime and Transition in Central and Eastern Europe[M].Springer,2014:97-116.
[12]Charles L E,Burchfiel C M,Fekedulegn D,et al.Shift Work and Sleep:The Buffalo Police Health Study[J].Policing,2007,30(2):215-227.
[13]Kaplan E H,Kress M,Szechtman R.Confronting Entrenched Insurgents[J].Operations Research,2010,58(2):329-341.
[14]Mukhopadhyay A,Zhang C,Vorobeychik Y,et al.Optimal Allocation of Police Patrol Resources Using a Continuous-Time Crime Model[A]//Carthy S M M,Sinha A,Tambe M,et al.Data Exfiltration Detection and Prevention:Virtually Distributed POMDPs for Practically Safer Networks[M].Springer,2016:139-158.
[15]Kennedy L W,Caplan J M,Piza E.Risk Clusters,Hotspots,and Spatial Intelligence:Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies[J].Journal of Quantitative Criminology,2011,27(3):339-362.
[16]程元军,罗利.基于排队论和整数规划的银行柜员弹性排班模型[J].管理学报,2010,7(10):1558-1565.(Cheng Yuanjun,Luo Li.A Teller Scheduling Model Based on Queuing Theory and Integer Programming[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2010,7(10):1558-1565.)
[17]蔡文婧,葛连升.基于排队论的银行业务窗口设置优化[J].山东大学学报:工学版,2013,43(3):23-29.(Cai Wenjing,Ge Liansheng.Optimization of Bank Counter Setting Based on Queuing Theory[J].Journal of Shandong University:Engineering Science,2013,43(3):23-29.)
[18]朱明珠,齐二石,杨甫勤.基于开排队网络的医院门诊服务台优化配置[J].工业工程与管理,2016,21(5):129-133,140.(Zhu Mingzhu,Qi Ershi,Yang Fuqin.The Resource Optimization of Service Desks in the Outpatient Based on the Open Queuing Network[J].Industrial Engineering and Management,2016,21(5):129-133,140.)
[19]王楠,武爱文.运用M/D/1和M/G/1排队模型配置医院门诊收费窗口资源[J].中国卫生统计,2015,32(4):680-682.(Wang Nan,Wu Aiwen.Applying M/D/1 and M/G/1 Queuing Model to Allocate Resources on Outpatient Billing Service in Hospital[J].Chinese Journal of Health Statistics,2015,32(4):680-682.)
[20]黄东宾,王扬帆.制造企业成品出入库两级排队协同服务模型[J].运筹与管理,2016,25(6):250-257.(Huang Dongbin,Wang Yangfan.A Two-Stage Queuing Model for Coordinating the Product Entry-Exit Service of Manufacturers’Warehouse[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2016,25(6):250-257.)
[21]刀荣贵,吕小波,王金良,等.基于排队论的卷烟生产物流服务台数量优化方法[J].烟草科技,2016,49(8):89-93.(Dao Ronggui,Lv Xiaobo,Wang Jinliang,et al.Optimization Method for Number of Logistics Servicer Stations in Cigarette Production Based on Queuing Theory[J].Tobacco Science and Technology,2016,49(8):89-93.)
[22]杨亚东,刘传波.基于单重休假规则M/G/1的交汇区域船舶通航能力计算模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2010,36(3):17-20,30.(Yang Yadong,Liu Chuanbo.Vessel Transit Capacity of Cross Area Channel Based on Single Vacation M/G/1 Model[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2016,36(3):17-20,30.)
[23]刘敬贤,韩晓宝,易湘平.基于排队论的受限航道通过能力计算[J].中国航海,2008,31(3):261-264,268.(Liu Jingxian,Han Xiaobao,Yi Xiangping.Capacity Analysis of Restricted Channels Based on the Queuing Theory[J].Navigation of China,2008,31(3):261-264,268.)
[24]Gao Z Y,Qu Y C,Li X G,et al.Simulating the Dynamic Escape Process in Large Public Places[J].Operations Research,2014,62(6):1344-1357.
[25]Kaplan E H.Staffing Models for Covert Counterterrorism Agencies[J].Socio-Economic Planning Sciences,2013,47(1):2-8.
[26]Taufemback C,Silva S D.Queuing Theory Applied to the Optimal Management of Bank Excess Reserves[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2012,391(4):1381-1387.
[27]孙荣恒,李建平.排队论基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.(Sun Rongheng,Li Jianping.The Basis of Queuing Theory[M].Beijing:Science Press,2002.)