新安江流域abcd水量平衡模型及参数敏感性分析
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摘要
abcd水量平衡模型在国外得到了广泛应用,但在国内应用基本处于空白状态。为了探究该模型在我国中小流域应用的适应性及有效性,在介绍abcd模型的原理及结构的基础上,将其应用于新安江流域的径流预报模拟。在国内首次对abcd模型的4个参数进行敏感性分析,采用单变量法和多变量法分别探讨模型的性能指标对参数变化的响应程度。结果表明:校验阶段汛期与非汛期Nash确定性系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE)分别为0.929和0.863,表明拟合程度较高;参数敏感性分析对于提高abcd模型参数率定的效率和精度具有显著意义;单变量法与多变量法结果相近,NSE对参数c最为敏感。通过对比径流模拟值与实测值,得出该模型模拟精度高、具有较高的适应性,能够广泛应用于我国中小流域。
Despite wide application abroad, the "abcd" water balance model is barely used in China. In order to explore the applicability and effectiveness of the "abcd" model in small and medium-sized watersheds in China, we first of all expound the principle and structure of the "abcd" model, and applied the model to the runoff forecasting simulation for Xin'an River Basin. Moreover, we examined the sensitivity of four parameters of the "abcd" model for the first time in China by comparing the simulated values with measured values, and further discussed the responses of performance indicators to parameter changes using univariate and multivariate methods. Results manifested that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)in verification is 0.929 in flood season and 0.863 in non-flood season, indicating a high fitting degree. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis could evidently improve the efficiency and accuracy of calibration. Result of the univariate method is similar to that of the multivariate method, and NSE is the most sensitive to parameter c. In conclusion, the "abcd" model can be widely applied to small and medium-sized watersheds in China with high accuracy and adaptability.
Despite wide application abroad, the "abcd" water balance model is barely used in China. In order to explore the applicability and effectiveness of the "abcd" model in small and medium-sized watersheds in China, we first of all expound the principle and structure of the "abcd" model, and applied the model to the runoff forecasting simulation for Xin'an River Basin. Moreover, we examined the sensitivity of four parameters of the "abcd" model for the first time in China by comparing the simulated values with measured values, and further discussed the responses of performance indicators to parameter changes using univariate and multivariate methods. Results manifested that Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)in verification is 0.929 in flood season and 0.863 in non-flood season, indicating a high fitting degree. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis could evidently improve the efficiency and accuracy of calibration. Result of the univariate method is similar to that of the multivariate method, and NSE is the most sensitive to parameter c. In conclusion, the "abcd" model can be widely applied to small and medium-sized watersheds in China with high accuracy and adaptability.
引文
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[2] 熊立华,郭生练,付小平,等.两参数月水量平衡模型的研制和应用[J].水科学进展,1996,7(增刊1):80-86.
[3] 陈桂亚,CLARKE D.气候变化对嘉陵江流域水资源量的影响分析[J].长江科学院院报,2006,24(1):25-30.
[4] THOMAS H A.Improved Methods for National Water Assessment[D].Washington D.C.,USA:Center for Integrated Data Analytics Wisconsin Science Center,1981.
[5] SANKARASUBRAMANIAN A,VOGEL R M.AnnualHydroclimatology of the United States[J].Water Resources Research,2002,38(6):19-1-19-12.
[6] MARTINEZ G F,GUPTA H V.Toward Improved Identification of Hydrological Models:A Diagnostic Evaluation of the “abcd” Monthly Water Balance Model for the Conterminous United States[J].Water Resources Research,2010,46,W08507,doi:10.1029/2009WR008294.
[7] 邓惠平,唐来华.沱江流域水文对全球气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,1998,53(1):42-48.
[8] 李帅,熊立华,万民.月水量平衡模型的比较研究[J].水文,2011,31(5):35-41.
[9] SOROOSHIAN S,DUAN Q,GUPTA V K.Calibration of Rainfall-runoff Models:Application of Global Optimization to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model[J].Water Resources Research,1993,29(4):1185-1194.
[10] WANG F,WANG L,ZHOU H,et al.Ensemble Hydrological Prediction-based Real-time Optimization of a Multiobjective Reservoir during Flood Season in a Semiarid Basin with Global Numerical Weather Predictions[J].Water Resources Research,2012,48,W07520,doi:10.1029/2011WR011366.