中国地质环境脆弱性评价
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摘要
中国地质环境具有先天脆弱性,空间分布存在巨大差异,对于区域生产力布局、工程建设、国土空间开发等社会经济诸多方面具有很大的影响。本研究基于ArcGIS平台,采用层次分析法构建包含地质构造、地表形态、组成物质三大类9个一级指标的地质环境脆弱性评价指标体系;将地壳稳定性、断裂带分布、海拔高度等9个脆弱性指标图层进行线性变换归一化处理,得到各指标标准值图层;运用因子相关分析法,分析9个脆弱性指标间相关性;应用主成分分析法,将相关性显著重复的要素删去,重新组合成一组新的互相无关的综合脆弱性要素;以主成分要素对应的方差贡献率作为权重,应用综合指数模型,完成地质环境脆弱性综合评价;在区位理论及空间统计的支持下进行进行分区,将全国划分为微度、轻微度、轻度、中度、重度和极度等6类脆弱区;综合分析中国地质环境脆弱性分布的空间特征及区域差异。研究结果表明,总体脆弱是中国地质环境的突出特征,中度至极度脆弱区面积约占中国全国土地面积的1/3,这是中国国土空间开发所面临的自然基础条件;中国区域地质环境脆弱程度呈现西北高东南低、西南高东北低且镶嵌式分布的总体空间格局,大致以贺兰山—六盘山—邛崃山—乌蒙山一线为界,此线以西地区地质环境脆弱程度高,此线以东地区地质环境脆弱程度低。
China's geological environment is fragile fundamentally and has great spatial variance,which greatly affects the socioeconomic development,such as regional allocation of productive force,engineering construction and regional territorial development.Based on the ArcGIS platform,an index system has been developed for the fragility evaluation of regional geological environment,which includes geological structure,earth surface landform and material composition with 9 first level indicators.After carrying out the Min-Max normalization of nine fragility indicators such as the crustal stability,the distribution of fracture zone and elevation,the maps of standard values of all indicators have been obtained in this paper.The correlation among nine fragility indicators has been analyzed by factor correlation analysis.The repetitive elements with significant correlation have been removed based on the principal component analysis,and then a new set of elements on comprehensive fragility has been developed.Taking the mean square deviation contribution rates corresponded to principle component as the weights,the comprehensive index model has been applied to make a comprehensive fragility evaluation of geological environment.Furthermore,with the support of location theory and the GIS spatial statistical analysis,the fragility of China's geological environment has been quantitatively classified into six zones:minor,gentle moderate,moderate,medium,severe,extreme fragile.And then,the spatial characteristics and regional difference about the fragility distribution of China's geological environment have been analyzed comprehensively.The results show that overall fragile is a prominent feature of China's geological environment,and the areas of moderately fragile and extremely fragile zones in China take up appropriately one third of the national terrestrial area.This is also the natural basic condition faced by China's national development and resource exploitation.The overall spatial pattern about the fragile degree of China's regional geological environment shows that the northwest is higher than the southeast,while the southwest is higher than the northeast,besides a little mosaic distribution.Taking the Helan Mountain–Liupan Mountain– Qionglai Mountain–Wumeng Mountain as an approximately boundary,it's found that the fragility of the geological environment in west is high,but the ones in east is low.
China's geological environment is fragile fundamentally and has great spatial variance,which greatly affects the socioeconomic development,such as regional allocation of productive force,engineering construction and regional territorial development.Based on the ArcGIS platform,an index system has been developed for the fragility evaluation of regional geological environment,which includes geological structure,earth surface landform and material composition with 9 first level indicators.After carrying out the Min-Max normalization of nine fragility indicators such as the crustal stability,the distribution of fracture zone and elevation,the maps of standard values of all indicators have been obtained in this paper.The correlation among nine fragility indicators has been analyzed by factor correlation analysis.The repetitive elements with significant correlation have been removed based on the principal component analysis,and then a new set of elements on comprehensive fragility has been developed.Taking the mean square deviation contribution rates corresponded to principle component as the weights,the comprehensive index model has been applied to make a comprehensive fragility evaluation of geological environment.Furthermore,with the support of location theory and the GIS spatial statistical analysis,the fragility of China's geological environment has been quantitatively classified into six zones:minor,gentle moderate,moderate,medium,severe,extreme fragile.And then,the spatial characteristics and regional difference about the fragility distribution of China's geological environment have been analyzed comprehensively.The results show that overall fragile is a prominent feature of China's geological environment,and the areas of moderately fragile and extremely fragile zones in China take up appropriately one third of the national terrestrial area.This is also the natural basic condition faced by China's national development and resource exploitation.The overall spatial pattern about the fragile degree of China's regional geological environment shows that the northwest is higher than the southeast,while the southwest is higher than the northeast,besides a little mosaic distribution.Taking the Helan Mountain–Liupan Mountain– Qionglai Mountain–Wumeng Mountain as an approximately boundary,it's found that the fragility of the geological environment in west is high,but the ones in east is low.
引文
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中国地质科学院地质力学研究院.中国区域地壳稳定性图(1:5000000)及说明书[M].北京:地质出版社,1997:1-25.Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.China regional crustal stability map(1:5000000)and instructions[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1997:1-25
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JANSSEN M A.An Update on the Scholarly Networks on Resilience,Vulnerability,and Adaptation within the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,16(3):240-252.
MORTBERG U M,BALFORS B,KNOL W C.Landscape Ecological Assessment:A Tool for Integrating Biodiversity Issues in Strategic Environmental Assessment and Planning[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2007,82(4):457-470.
AYALEW L and YAMAGISHI H.The Application of GISBased Logistic Regression for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Kakuda Yahiko Mountains[J].Central Japan.Geomorphology,2005,65(1/2):15-31.
BISWAJEET P,SARO L.Utilization of Optieal Remote Sensing Data and GIS Tools for Regional Landslide Hazard Analysis Using an Artificial Neural Network Model[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(6):143-151.
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ZHOU J B,ZOU J.Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources to Climate Change in Chinese Cities[J].Ecological Economy,2010,6(2):106-114.
SULLIVAN C A.Quantifying Water Vulnerability:AMulti-dimensional Approach[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,25(4):627-640.
BRUCE K H.An Examination of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management[J].Environment International,2006,(32):983-995.
HOPE B K.An Examination of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management Practices[J].Environment International,2006,32:983-995.
JOSE Miguel de Paz,JUAN Sanchez,FERNANDO Visconti.Combined Use of GIS and Environmental Indicators for Assessment of Chemical,Physical and Biological Soil Degradation in a Spanish Mediterranean region[J],Journal of Environmental Management,2006,79:150-162.
LU W Z,WANG W J.Potential Assessment of the“Support Vector Machine”Method in Forecasting Ambient Air Pollutant Trends[J].Chemosphere,2005,59(5):693-701.
田亚平,常昊.中国生态脆弱性研究进展的文献计量分析[J].地理学报,2012,67(11):1515-1525.TIAN Yaping,CHANG Hao.Bibliometric Analysis of Research Progress on Ecological Vulnerability in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(11):1515-1525.
吴次芳,潘文灿.国土规划的理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.WU Cifang,PAN Wencan,Theory and Method of Land Planning[M].Beijing:Science Press.2003.
景垠娜.自然灾害风险评估[D].上海:上海师范大学,2010.JING Yinna.Natural Disaster Risk Assessment[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Normal University Master Thesis,2010.
刘勇.基于空间信息技术的土地生态风险评价研究[D].上海:上海大学,2008.LIU Yong.The Research on Land Ecological Risk Assessment Based on Special Information Technology[D].Shanghai:Shanghai University,2008.
赵璐.基于信息扩散和模糊综合评价方法的矿产资源开发环境风险评价研究[D].四川:成都理工大学,2011.ZHAO Lu.The Environmental Risk Evaluation Research of Mine Resourse Exploitation Based on Information Diffusion and Comprehensive Evaluation Method on Obscure Information[D].Sichuan:Chengdu University of Technology,2011.
尹占娥.城市自然灾害风险评估与实证研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2009.YIN Zhane.Research of Urban Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Case Study[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University PhD Thesis,2009.
刘耀龙.多尺度自然灾害情景风险评估与区划[D].上海:华东师范大学,2011.LIU Yaolong.Multi-scale natural disaster scenarios'risk assessment and zoning[D].Shanghai:East China Normal University,2011.
毕海普.三峡库区突发水污染事故的数值模拟及风险评估研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2011.BI Haipu.A Thesis Submitted to Chongqing University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Doctor of Engineering[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,2011.
赵晓剑.水资源短缺风险综合评价[D].济南:山东大学,2012.ZHAO Xiaojian.The Comprehensive evaluation of risk about water resources[D].Jinan:Shandong University,2012.
傅丽华.基于景观结构的长株潭核心区土地利用生态风险调控研究[D].长沙:湖南师范大学,2012.FU Lihua.On Landscape-structure-based regulation and Control on Land-use Ecological Risk in the Core Area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan[D].Changsha:Hunan Normal University,2012.
宫继萍,石培基,魏伟,等.基于土地利用变化的民勤县土地生态风险研究[J].土壤通报,2012,43(5):1029-1035.GONG Jiping,SHI Peiji,WEI Wei,et al.Study on Land Ecological Risk in Minqin County Based on Land-use Change[J].Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2012,43(5):1029-1035.
段海来,千怀遂,杜尧东.未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度变化[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):971-980.DUAN Hailai,QIAN Huaisui,DU Yaodong.Changes of Citrus Climate Risk in Subtropics of China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(6):971-980.
姚华军,孟旭光,强真,等.北部湾经济区国土规划2011~2030年[R].北京:中国国土资源经济研究院,2011.YAO Huajun,MENG Xuguang,Qiang Zhen,et al.Beibu Gulf Economic Zone Land Planning 2011-2030[R].Beijing:China Institute of Land and Resources Economics,2011.
中国地质科学院地质力学研究院.中国区域地壳稳定性图(1:5000000)及说明书[M].北京:地质出版社,1997:1-25.Institute of Geomechanics,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences.China regional crustal stability map(1:5000000)and instructions[M].Beijing:Geological Publishing House,1997:1-25
邓启东,冉勇康,杨晓平,等.中国活动构造图(1:4000000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2007.DENG Qidong,YAN Yongkang,YANG Xiaoping,et al.Chinese activity structure map(1:4000000)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2007.
JANSSEN M A.An Update on the Scholarly Networks on Resilience,Vulnerability,and Adaptation within the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change[J].Global Environmental Change,2007,16(3):240-252.
MORTBERG U M,BALFORS B,KNOL W C.Landscape Ecological Assessment:A Tool for Integrating Biodiversity Issues in Strategic Environmental Assessment and Planning[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2007,82(4):457-470.
AYALEW L and YAMAGISHI H.The Application of GISBased Logistic Regression for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Kakuda Yahiko Mountains[J].Central Japan.Geomorphology,2005,65(1/2):15-31.
BISWAJEET P,SARO L.Utilization of Optieal Remote Sensing Data and GIS Tools for Regional Landslide Hazard Analysis Using an Artificial Neural Network Model[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2007,14(6):143-151.
DU J C,TENG H C.3DLaser Scanning and GPS Technology for Landslide Earthwork Volume Estimation[J].Automation in Construction,2007,16(5):657-663.
NOFERINI L,PIERACCINI M,MECATTI D,et al.U-sing GB-SAR Technique to Monitor Slow Moving Landslide[J].Engineering Geology,2007,95(3/4):55-95.
ZHOU J B,ZOU J.Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources to Climate Change in Chinese Cities[J].Ecological Economy,2010,6(2):106-114.
SULLIVAN C A.Quantifying Water Vulnerability:AMulti-dimensional Approach[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,25(4):627-640.
BRUCE K H.An Examination of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management[J].Environment International,2006,(32):983-995.
HOPE B K.An Examination of Ecological Risk Assessment and Management Practices[J].Environment International,2006,32:983-995.
JOSE Miguel de Paz,JUAN Sanchez,FERNANDO Visconti.Combined Use of GIS and Environmental Indicators for Assessment of Chemical,Physical and Biological Soil Degradation in a Spanish Mediterranean region[J],Journal of Environmental Management,2006,79:150-162.
LU W Z,WANG W J.Potential Assessment of the“Support Vector Machine”Method in Forecasting Ambient Air Pollutant Trends[J].Chemosphere,2005,59(5):693-701.