东道国经济风险对中国企业对外投资的影响——基于中国对外直接投资与工程项目投资两个维度的分析
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摘要
本文利用"中国全球投资追踪"数据库,采用面板离散数据模型,实证分析了经济风险对中国企业对外投资的影响。研究结果表明,中国企业对外直接投资与工程项目投资总体上存在风险偏好,更倾向于投资经济风险较高的国家和地区。但分样本来看,中国企业工程项目投资呈现出明显的风险偏好,而对外直接投资则没有明显的投资风险偏好。这说明中国企业对外投资整体呈现高风险偏好主要是由于工程项目投资对对外直接投资的屏蔽效用。其次,本文的研究结果还显示,不论是对外直接投资还是工程项目投资,东道国(地区)市场规模、企业综合税率均是影响中国企业对外投资的重要因素。
This paper uses the‘China Global Investment Tracker’ database and uses the panel discrete data model to empirically analyze the impact of economic risks on Chinese companies' foreign investment. The research results show that Chinese enterprises generally have risk appetite for foreign direct investment and engineering project investment, and they are more inclined to invest in countries and regions with higher economic risks.However,according to the sample,the investment in Chinese enterprise engineering projects shows obvious risk preference, while foreign direct investment has no obvious investment risk preference.This shows that the high risk appetite of Chinese enterprises' external investment is mainly due to the shielding effect of engineering project investment on foreign direct investment. Secondly, the research results of this paper also show that whether it is foreign direct investment or engineering project investment, the market size of the host country(region)and the comprehensive tax rate of enterprises are important factors affecting the foreign investment of Chinese enterprises.
This paper uses the‘China Global Investment Tracker’ database and uses the panel discrete data model to empirically analyze the impact of economic risks on Chinese companies' foreign investment. The research results show that Chinese enterprises generally have risk appetite for foreign direct investment and engineering project investment, and they are more inclined to invest in countries and regions with higher economic risks.However,according to the sample,the investment in Chinese enterprise engineering projects shows obvious risk preference, while foreign direct investment has no obvious investment risk preference.This shows that the high risk appetite of Chinese enterprises' external investment is mainly due to the shielding effect of engineering project investment on foreign direct investment. Secondly, the research results of this paper also show that whether it is foreign direct investment or engineering project investment, the market size of the host country(region)and the comprehensive tax rate of enterprises are important factors affecting the foreign investment of Chinese enterprises.
引文
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(2)冀相豹:《中国对外直接投资影响因素分析——基于制度的视角》,《国际贸易问题》2014年第9期。
(3)潘镇、金中坤:《双边政治关系、东道国制度风险与中国对外直接投资》,《财贸经济》2015年第6期。
(4)王海军:《政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资——基于东道国与母国两个维度的实证分析》,《财贸研究》2012年第1期。
(5)王海军、齐兰:《国家经济风险与FDI——基于中国的经验研究》,《财经研究》2011年第10期。
(6)韦军亮、陈漓高:《政治风险对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于动态面板模型的实证研究》,《经济评论》2009年第4期。
(7)余官胜:《东道国经济风险与我国企业对外直接投资二元增长区位选择——基于面板数据门槛效应模型的研究》,《中央财经大学学报》2017年第6期。
(8)苑新丽:《公司税的外国直接投资效应研究》,科学出版社2009年版。
(9)张雨、戴翔:《政治风险影响了我国企业走出去吗?》,《国际经贸探索》2013年第5期。
(10)张元钊:《政治风险影响了中国企业跨国并购吗——基于面板负二项回归模型的实证分析》,《国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2016年第3期。
(11)Duanmu,J. L.,Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Chinese multinational enterprises(MNEs). Journal Of World Business,Vol.47,No. 1,2012.
(12)Dunning, J. H., Explaining the international direct investment position of countries:Towards a dynamic or developmental approach. Review Of World Economics, Vol. 117,No. 1,1981.
(13)Globerman,S and Shapiro, D., Governance infrastructure and US foreign direct investment. Journal Of International Business Studies,Vol. 34,No. 1,2003.
(14)Jun, K.and Singh, H., The determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries. Transnational Corporations,Vol. 5, No. 2,1996.
(15)Kolstad,I. and Wiig,A.,What determines Chinese outward FDI?. Journal Of World Business, Vol. 47, No. 1,2012.
(16)Ramasamy, B., Yeung, M. and Laforet,S.,China's outward foreign direct investment:Location choice and firm ownership. Journal Of World Business, Vol.47,No. 1,2012.
(17)Rossi, S. and Volpin, P. F., Cross-country detriments of merger and acquisitions. Journal Of Financial Economics,Vol. 74, No. 2,2004.
(18)Shambaugh,D.,China Goes Global:The Partial Power. Oxford,UK:Oxford University Press,2013.
(19)Singh, H. and Jun, K. W., Some new evidence on determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries.World Bank,Policy Research Working Paper Series,No. 1531,1995.
(20)Usher,D., Political risk. Economic Development And Cultural Change, Vol. 13, No. 4,1965.