连片特困地区物流业发展的减贫效应测度
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摘要
为科学测度连片特困地区物流业发展的减贫效应,基于熵权-TOPISIS模型对贫困程度进行评估,并以综合贫困指数为被解释变量,表征物流业发展水平的6个指标(货物周转量、物流业增加值、公路网密度、规模以上工业产值、社会消费零售总额和货物平均运距)为解释变量,引入空间杜宾模型(SDM)计量县域尺度下物流业发展对区域减贫的直接影响和空间溢出效应。研究表明:物流业增加值、路网密度和规模以上工业产值对区域减贫具有显著的直接效应,物流业增加值每增加10~8元,本县(区)的综合贫困指数将降低0.060;货物周转量、公路网密度和规模以上工业产值对区域减贫的间接(空间溢出)作用明显,本县(区)货物周转量每增加10~8 t·km~(-1),毗邻县(区)的综合贫困指数将降低0.020。均衡物流产业的空间分布、完善物流基础设施和调动贫困县(区)物流需求,是发挥物流减贫效应的有效措施。
In order to estimate scientifically the poverty reduction effects by the logistics industry development in the contiguous poverty-stricken areas,the entropy weight method(EWM)-TOPISIS Model is utilized to estimate the poverty intensity.Taking the comprehensive poverty index(CPI) as the explained variable and six indicators which represent the development of logistics industry and include the tonnage mileage(TM),added value of logistics industry(AVLI),highway network density(HND),value of gross out by the industry above designated size(VGO),total volume of retail sales of social consumption(TVRS),and average freight distance of goods(AFD) as the explanatory variables,the Spatial Dubin Model(SDM) is introduced to calculate the direct influence and spatial spillover effects on regional poverty reduction by the logistics industry development at the county scale.The findings indicated that: firstly,the AVLI,HND and VGO had prominent direct effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of AVLI by 10 million Yuan in a county(or district) would bring down its CPI by 0.060;secondly,the TM,HND and VGO had obvious indirect(spatial spillover) effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of the TM by 10 million ton·kilometers in a county(or district) will bring down the CPIs of its adjacent counties(or districts) by 0.020.Such measures as balancing the spatial distribution of logistics industry,improving logistics infrastructure and mobilizing the logistics demand in the poverty-stricken counties(districts) are the effective measures to exert the poverty reduction effect by logistics development.
In order to estimate scientifically the poverty reduction effects by the logistics industry development in the contiguous poverty-stricken areas,the entropy weight method(EWM)-TOPISIS Model is utilized to estimate the poverty intensity.Taking the comprehensive poverty index(CPI) as the explained variable and six indicators which represent the development of logistics industry and include the tonnage mileage(TM),added value of logistics industry(AVLI),highway network density(HND),value of gross out by the industry above designated size(VGO),total volume of retail sales of social consumption(TVRS),and average freight distance of goods(AFD) as the explanatory variables,the Spatial Dubin Model(SDM) is introduced to calculate the direct influence and spatial spillover effects on regional poverty reduction by the logistics industry development at the county scale.The findings indicated that: firstly,the AVLI,HND and VGO had prominent direct effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of AVLI by 10 million Yuan in a county(or district) would bring down its CPI by 0.060;secondly,the TM,HND and VGO had obvious indirect(spatial spillover) effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of the TM by 10 million ton·kilometers in a county(or district) will bring down the CPIs of its adjacent counties(or districts) by 0.020.Such measures as balancing the spatial distribution of logistics industry,improving logistics infrastructure and mobilizing the logistics demand in the poverty-stricken counties(districts) are the effective measures to exert the poverty reduction effect by logistics development.
引文
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[16] 李胜文,闫俊强.农村基础设施及其空间溢出效应对农村经济增长的影响[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(4):10-14.[LI Shengwen,YAN Junqiang.Impact of rural infrastructure and its spatial spillover effects on rural economic growth[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2011,13(4):10-14.]
[17] 叶锐,王守坤.公路交通基础设施与收入差距的理论与实证分析[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(4):36-41.[YE Rui,WANG Shoukun.Theoretical and empirical analysis on highway transportation infrastructure and income gap in China[J].Journal of Chang’an University(Social Sciences Edition),2011,13(4):36-41.]
[18] DING J J.Comparative analysis on poverty degree of China’s 11 contiguous destitute areas:With view of comprehensive development index[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1418-1427.
[19] 刘小鹏,苏晓芳,王亚娟,等.空间贫困研究及其对我国贫困地理研究的启示[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(1):144-152.[LIU Xiaopeng,SU Xiaofang,WANG Yajuan,et al.Review on spatial poverty and deprivation and its enlightenments to poverty geography studies in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(1):144-152.]
[20] SUN L,MIAO C,YANG L.Ecological-economic efficiency evaluation of green technology innovation in strategic emerging industries based on entropy weighted TOPSIS method[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,73:554-558.
[2] MOORE J D,DONALDSON J A.Human-scale economics:Economic growth and poverty reduction in northeastern Thailand[J].World Development,2016,85(9):1-15.
[3] 曾倩琳,孙秋碧.信息化、空间溢出效应与物流业生产率的提升[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(1):40-46.[ZENG Qianlin,SUN Qiubi.Informatization,spatial spillover effect and promotion of productivity of the logistics industry[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2017,17(1):40-46.]
[4] 赵珊珊,李红,唐洪松.“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家物流水平对新疆国际贸易的影响研究[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(4):897-905.[ZHAO Shanshan,LI Hong,TANG Hongsong.Influence of logistics level of the countries along the “Silk Road Economic Belt” to the national trade of Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography,2017,40(4):897-905.]
[5] 戢晓峰,郝京京,陈方.综合运输可达性与物流经济的空间分异及耦合[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2014,14(3):214-220.[JI Xiaofeng,HAO Jingjing,CHEN Fang.Spatial differentiation and coupling between integrated transport accessibility and logistics economy[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2014,14(3):214-220.]
[6] SANCHEZ T W.Poverty,policy,and public transportation[J].Transportation Research Part A Policy & Practice,2008,42(5):833-841.
[7] VELAGA N R,BEECROFT M,NELSON J D,et al.Transport poverty meets the digital divide:Accessibility and connectivity in rural communities[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2012,21(1):102-112.
[8] FAN S,CHAN-Kang C.Regional road development,rural and urban poverty:Evidence from China[J].Transport Policy,2008,15(5):305-314.
[9] PEDRO Cantos,MERCEDES Gumbau-Albert,JOAQUIN Maudos.Transport infrastructures,spillover effects and regional growth:Evidence of the spanish case[J].Transport Reviews,2005,25(1):25-50.
[10] JUAN P B S,DANIERL R O H.Transport accessibility and social inequities:A tool for identification of mobility needs and evaluation of transport investments[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2012,24(3):142-154.
[11] 戢晓峰,李武,郝京京.连片特困地区可达性与贫困程度的空间耦合模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2017,17(4):33-39.[JI Xiaofeng,LI Wu,HAO Jingjing.Spatial coupling model between accessibility and poverty intensity in poverty contiguous destitute areas[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2017,17(4):33-39.]
[12] 胡煜,李红昌.交通枢纽等级的测度及其空间溢出效应——基于中国城市面板数据的空间计量分析[J].中国工业经济,2015,29(5):32-43.[HU Yu,LI Hongchang.The estimate of transport hub level and its spatial spillover effects:A spatial panel data study on China’s prefecture-level city[J].China Industrial Economy,2015,29(5):32-43.]
[13] 汪三贵.在发展中战胜贫困——对中国30年大规模减贫经验的总结与评价[J].管理世界,2008,24(11):78-88.[WANG Sangui.Beating poverty by means of development:A summary and evaluation of the experiences of China’s large-scale reduction of poverty in the past 30 years[J].Management World,2008,24(11):78-88.]
[14] 王璐,黄晓燕,曹小曙,等.贫困山区不同层级可达性及其经济效应——以秦巴山区为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(1):156-164.[WANG Lu,HUANG Xiaoyan,CAO Xiaoshu,et al.The accessibility of different scales and its impacts on economy development in poverty-stricken mountainous areas:A case dtudy in Qinba Mountain areas[J].Economic Geography,2016,36(1):156-164.]
[15] 李慧玲,徐妍.交通基础设施、产业结构与减贫效应研究——基于面板VAR模型[J].技术经济与管理研究,2016,23(8):25-30.[LI Huiling,XU Yan.Transport infrastructure,industrial structure and effect of reducing poverty:Based on the panel VAR model[J].Journal of Technical Economics & Management,2016,23(8):25-30.]
[16] 李胜文,闫俊强.农村基础设施及其空间溢出效应对农村经济增长的影响[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(4):10-14.[LI Shengwen,YAN Junqiang.Impact of rural infrastructure and its spatial spillover effects on rural economic growth[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2011,13(4):10-14.]
[17] 叶锐,王守坤.公路交通基础设施与收入差距的理论与实证分析[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(4):36-41.[YE Rui,WANG Shoukun.Theoretical and empirical analysis on highway transportation infrastructure and income gap in China[J].Journal of Chang’an University(Social Sciences Edition),2011,13(4):36-41.]
[18] DING J J.Comparative analysis on poverty degree of China’s 11 contiguous destitute areas:With view of comprehensive development index[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(12):1418-1427.
[19] 刘小鹏,苏晓芳,王亚娟,等.空间贫困研究及其对我国贫困地理研究的启示[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(1):144-152.[LIU Xiaopeng,SU Xiaofang,WANG Yajuan,et al.Review on spatial poverty and deprivation and its enlightenments to poverty geography studies in China[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(1):144-152.]
[20] SUN L,MIAO C,YANG L.Ecological-economic efficiency evaluation of green technology innovation in strategic emerging industries based on entropy weighted TOPSIS method[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,73:554-558.