基于层次分析与集对分析法的LNG槽车区风险评价
|
摘要
LNG槽车充装作业过程中一旦发生泄漏,极易引发燃烧甚至爆炸事故,破坏性极大。为了对LNG接收站槽车充装区进行科学合理的风险评价,从工艺、设备及管理3方面,选取阀门内漏情况、操作流程合理性、充装人员专业水平等16个指标,构建了LNG接收站槽车充装区风险评价指标体系;针对指标具有模糊性的特点,运用层次分析法确定各指标权重,建立了基于集对分析法的槽车充装区风险评价模型。将该风险评价模型用于山东某LNG接收站槽车充装区的风险评价,结果表明:该评价模型将定性分析与定量分析相结合,评价结果可靠,能够为LNG槽车充装工作的改进提供指导作用。
Once a leakage accident happens in the process of LNG tanker loading, burning accident and even explosion can be induced very easily and their destructiveness is huge. In order to evaluate the risk in the tanker loading region of LNG receiving terminal scientifically and reasonably, 16 indicators were selected from the aspects of process, equipment and management, such as the internal leakage of the valve, the rationality of the operation process and the professional level of the loading personnel, and the indicator system of risk assessment for LNG tanker loading region was constructed. Then,considering the ambiguity of the indicators, the weight of each indicator was determined by means of analytical hierarchy process. Finally, the risk assessment model for the LNG tanker loading region was established based on the set pair analysis theory. And this risk assessment model was applied to evaluate the risk in the tank loading region of one LNG receiving terminal in Shandong. It is indicated that this newly established risk assessment model combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis together, and its evaluation results are reliable and can provide the guidance for the improvement of LNG tanker loading.
Once a leakage accident happens in the process of LNG tanker loading, burning accident and even explosion can be induced very easily and their destructiveness is huge. In order to evaluate the risk in the tanker loading region of LNG receiving terminal scientifically and reasonably, 16 indicators were selected from the aspects of process, equipment and management, such as the internal leakage of the valve, the rationality of the operation process and the professional level of the loading personnel, and the indicator system of risk assessment for LNG tanker loading region was constructed. Then,considering the ambiguity of the indicators, the weight of each indicator was determined by means of analytical hierarchy process. Finally, the risk assessment model for the LNG tanker loading region was established based on the set pair analysis theory. And this risk assessment model was applied to evaluate the risk in the tank loading region of one LNG receiving terminal in Shandong. It is indicated that this newly established risk assessment model combines qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis together, and its evaluation results are reliable and can provide the guidance for the improvement of LNG tanker loading.
引文
[1]曹学文,叶青,石倩,等.我国LNG产业关键技术发展分析[J].天然气技术与经济,2016,10(2):1-4,81.CAO X W,YE Q,SHI Q,et al.Analysis on key technologies development in Chinese LNG industry[J].Natural Gas Technology and Economy,2016,10(2):1-4,81.
[2]郭旭,罗晓钟,王荣华,等.国内LNG运输技术与设备的发展现状[J].低温与特气,2016,34(2):11-14.GUO X,LUO X Z,WANG R H,et al.Development of domestic LNG transportation technology[J].Low Temperature and Specialty Gases,2016,34(2):11-14.
[3]万方敏,解东来.天然气运输方式的适用范围与经济性比较[J].油气储运,2015,37(7):709-713.WAN F M,XIE D L.Application scope and economical comparison of natural gas transportation[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,37(7):709-713.
[4]冯凌华.LNG槽车公路运输的风险识别及其在安全体系构建中的应用研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013:29-38.FENG L H.Application of risk identification analysis in the LNG road transport security system[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2013:29-38.
[5]姜华.液化天然气公路运输风险评价[J].化工管理,2014(18):32.JIANG H.Risk assessment of LNG tanker road transportation[J].Chemical Enterprise Management,2014(18):32.
[6]林虎.LNG槽车公路运输风险控制研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015:29-43.LIN H.The research of risk control in LNG tanker road transportation[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2015:29-43.
[7]卢鼎,任东.浅谈LNG槽车装车安全隐患[J].化工设计通讯,2016,42(3):157,171.LU D,REN D.On the LNG tanker loading security risks[J].Chemical Engineering Design Communications,2016,42(3):157,171.
[8]陈功剑,杜文锋,侯昆昆.LNG槽车充装危险因素及控制措施[J].天然气技术与经济,2011,5(增刊1):54-56.CHEN G J,DU W F,HOU K K.Risk factors and control measures of LNG tank filling[J].Natural Gas Technology and Economy,2011,5(S1):54-56.
[9]徐四忠,周德勇,徐水根.紧急切断阀在低温液体充装中的应用[J].深冷技术,2015(7):8-10.XU S Z,ZHOU D Y,XU S G.Application of emergency release coupler in filling of cryogenic liquid[J].Cryogenic Technology,2015(7):8-10.
[10]宋峰彬,陈功焱,黄刚,等.液化天然气接收站槽车区LNG泄漏事故树分析[J].化学工程与装备,2011(11):188-190.SONG F B,CHEN G Y,HUANG G,et al.Fault tree analysis of leak in LNG tanker loading region[J].Chemical Engineering&Equipment,2011(11):188-190.
[11]EULALIA P C,NURIA G,ALBERT V,et al.Explosion of a road tanker containing liquified natural gas[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2004,17:315-321.
[12]PLANAS E,PASTOR E,CASAL J,et al.Analysis of the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion(BLEVE)of a liquefied natural gas road tanker:The Zarzalico accident[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,34:127-138.
[13]TAKAGI D,KOYAMA K,ISHIZUKA A,et al.Reliability analysis system for risk management of LNG receiving terminals and piping network[C].Seattle:Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2002:205-211.
[14]赵克勤.集对分析对不确定性的描述和处理[J].信息与控制,1995(3):162-166.ZHAO K Q.Disposal and description of uncertainties based on the set pair analysis[J].Information and Control,1995(3):162-166.
[15]陈雪锋,陈文涛.集对分析理论在爆破工程安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(1):146-150.CHEN X F,CHEN W T.Application of set pair analysis theory in safety pre-evaluation of blasting engineering[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(1):146-150.
[16]舒畅,姚安林,刘帅峰,等.集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):82-87.SHU C,YAO A L,LIU S F,et al.Application of set pair analysis in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(1):82-87.
[17]李博杨,李贤功,吴利高,等.基于熵权法和集对分析的煤矿安全事故人因失误分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(1):111-114.LI B Y,LI X G,WU L G,et al.Analysis of human error factors in coal mine safety accidents based on entropy weight and set pair analysis[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,44(1):111-114.
[18]万强,周怀发.基于集对分析法的储油库火灾风险分析[J].价值工程,2014(2):49-50.WAN Q,ZHOU H F.Fire risk analysis of oil depot based on the set pair analysis[J].Value Engineering,2014(2):49-50.
[19]夏超,李洁.基于集对分析的地铁隧道塌方风险评价[J].筑路机械与施工机械化,2016(4):112-116.XIA C,LI J.Risk assessment of subway tunnel collapses based on set pair analysis[J].Road Machinery&Construction Mechanization,2016(4):112-116.
[20]刘树锋,周怀发,孙世一.LNG槽车装车橇测试验收及试运行的控制要点[J].油气储运,2016,35(4):444-448.LIU S F,ZHOU H F,SUN S Y.Key control points in the acceptance test and commissioning of skid-mounted LNGloading facility[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(4):444-448.
[21]李少杰.某大型LNG低温槽车用低温储罐设计分析及传热问题研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2016:10-14.LI S J.The design analysis and heat transfer problems for cryogenic storage tank of a large LNG cryogenic lorry[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2016:10-14.
[22]朱渊,张肖锦,师吉浩,等.LNG罐车泄漏火灾罐体超压失效预警及防控[J].天然气工业,2016,36(8):138-144.ZHU Y,ZHANG X J,SHI J H,et al.Failure warning,prevention and control of LNG road tanker trucks:Acycle motivation of“leakage-fire-overload on the tank”in accidents[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(8):138-144.
[23]陆添超,康凯.熵值法和层次分析法在权重确定中的应用[J].电脑编程技巧与维护,2009(22):19-20,53.LU T C,KANG K.The application of entropy method and AHP in weight determining[J].Computer Programming Skills&Maintenance,2009(22):19-20,53.
[24]孙伶,戚菁菁,赵光宇,等.层次分析法在油气管道判废综合评估上的应用[J].现代化工,2018,38(3):238-240.SUN L,QI J J,ZHAO G Y,et al.Application of analytic hierarchy process in comprehensive evaluation of oil and gas pipelines[J].Modern Chemical Industry,2018,38(3):238-240.
[2]郭旭,罗晓钟,王荣华,等.国内LNG运输技术与设备的发展现状[J].低温与特气,2016,34(2):11-14.GUO X,LUO X Z,WANG R H,et al.Development of domestic LNG transportation technology[J].Low Temperature and Specialty Gases,2016,34(2):11-14.
[3]万方敏,解东来.天然气运输方式的适用范围与经济性比较[J].油气储运,2015,37(7):709-713.WAN F M,XIE D L.Application scope and economical comparison of natural gas transportation[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,37(7):709-713.
[4]冯凌华.LNG槽车公路运输的风险识别及其在安全体系构建中的应用研究[D].广州:华南理工大学,2013:29-38.FENG L H.Application of risk identification analysis in the LNG road transport security system[D].Guangzhou:South China University of Technology,2013:29-38.
[5]姜华.液化天然气公路运输风险评价[J].化工管理,2014(18):32.JIANG H.Risk assessment of LNG tanker road transportation[J].Chemical Enterprise Management,2014(18):32.
[6]林虎.LNG槽车公路运输风险控制研究[D].大连:大连海事大学,2015:29-43.LIN H.The research of risk control in LNG tanker road transportation[D].Dalian:Dalian Maritime University,2015:29-43.
[7]卢鼎,任东.浅谈LNG槽车装车安全隐患[J].化工设计通讯,2016,42(3):157,171.LU D,REN D.On the LNG tanker loading security risks[J].Chemical Engineering Design Communications,2016,42(3):157,171.
[8]陈功剑,杜文锋,侯昆昆.LNG槽车充装危险因素及控制措施[J].天然气技术与经济,2011,5(增刊1):54-56.CHEN G J,DU W F,HOU K K.Risk factors and control measures of LNG tank filling[J].Natural Gas Technology and Economy,2011,5(S1):54-56.
[9]徐四忠,周德勇,徐水根.紧急切断阀在低温液体充装中的应用[J].深冷技术,2015(7):8-10.XU S Z,ZHOU D Y,XU S G.Application of emergency release coupler in filling of cryogenic liquid[J].Cryogenic Technology,2015(7):8-10.
[10]宋峰彬,陈功焱,黄刚,等.液化天然气接收站槽车区LNG泄漏事故树分析[J].化学工程与装备,2011(11):188-190.SONG F B,CHEN G Y,HUANG G,et al.Fault tree analysis of leak in LNG tanker loading region[J].Chemical Engineering&Equipment,2011(11):188-190.
[11]EULALIA P C,NURIA G,ALBERT V,et al.Explosion of a road tanker containing liquified natural gas[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2004,17:315-321.
[12]PLANAS E,PASTOR E,CASAL J,et al.Analysis of the boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion(BLEVE)of a liquefied natural gas road tanker:The Zarzalico accident[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2015,34:127-138.
[13]TAKAGI D,KOYAMA K,ISHIZUKA A,et al.Reliability analysis system for risk management of LNG receiving terminals and piping network[C].Seattle:Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium,2002:205-211.
[14]赵克勤.集对分析对不确定性的描述和处理[J].信息与控制,1995(3):162-166.ZHAO K Q.Disposal and description of uncertainties based on the set pair analysis[J].Information and Control,1995(3):162-166.
[15]陈雪锋,陈文涛.集对分析理论在爆破工程安全预评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(1):146-150.CHEN X F,CHEN W T.Application of set pair analysis theory in safety pre-evaluation of blasting engineering[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2017,13(1):146-150.
[16]舒畅,姚安林,刘帅峰,等.集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):82-87.SHU C,YAO A L,LIU S F,et al.Application of set pair analysis in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipeline[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(1):82-87.
[17]李博杨,李贤功,吴利高,等.基于熵权法和集对分析的煤矿安全事故人因失误分析[J].矿业安全与环保,2017,44(1):111-114.LI B Y,LI X G,WU L G,et al.Analysis of human error factors in coal mine safety accidents based on entropy weight and set pair analysis[J].Mining Safety&Environmental Protection,2017,44(1):111-114.
[18]万强,周怀发.基于集对分析法的储油库火灾风险分析[J].价值工程,2014(2):49-50.WAN Q,ZHOU H F.Fire risk analysis of oil depot based on the set pair analysis[J].Value Engineering,2014(2):49-50.
[19]夏超,李洁.基于集对分析的地铁隧道塌方风险评价[J].筑路机械与施工机械化,2016(4):112-116.XIA C,LI J.Risk assessment of subway tunnel collapses based on set pair analysis[J].Road Machinery&Construction Mechanization,2016(4):112-116.
[20]刘树锋,周怀发,孙世一.LNG槽车装车橇测试验收及试运行的控制要点[J].油气储运,2016,35(4):444-448.LIU S F,ZHOU H F,SUN S Y.Key control points in the acceptance test and commissioning of skid-mounted LNGloading facility[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(4):444-448.
[21]李少杰.某大型LNG低温槽车用低温储罐设计分析及传热问题研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2016:10-14.LI S J.The design analysis and heat transfer problems for cryogenic storage tank of a large LNG cryogenic lorry[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2016:10-14.
[22]朱渊,张肖锦,师吉浩,等.LNG罐车泄漏火灾罐体超压失效预警及防控[J].天然气工业,2016,36(8):138-144.ZHU Y,ZHANG X J,SHI J H,et al.Failure warning,prevention and control of LNG road tanker trucks:Acycle motivation of“leakage-fire-overload on the tank”in accidents[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(8):138-144.
[23]陆添超,康凯.熵值法和层次分析法在权重确定中的应用[J].电脑编程技巧与维护,2009(22):19-20,53.LU T C,KANG K.The application of entropy method and AHP in weight determining[J].Computer Programming Skills&Maintenance,2009(22):19-20,53.
[24]孙伶,戚菁菁,赵光宇,等.层次分析法在油气管道判废综合评估上的应用[J].现代化工,2018,38(3):238-240.SUN L,QI J J,ZHAO G Y,et al.Application of analytic hierarchy process in comprehensive evaluation of oil and gas pipelines[J].Modern Chemical Industry,2018,38(3):238-240.