大伙房水库汛期径流变化趋势及影响因素定量分离研究
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摘要
基于大伙房水库1961—2004年汛期各月降雨径流资料,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Pettitt突变检验法和降雨—径流深双累积曲线方法,分析了大伙房水库汛期降雨、汛期径流深、最大月降雨和最大月径流深四类序列的趋势和跳跃特性,并利用累积量斜率变化率定量评价了降雨和人类活动对汛期径流深和最大月径流深的影响。结果表明:(1)流域汛期降雨和径流深下降趋势不显著,最大月降雨和最大月径流深上升趋势不显著;(2)汛期降雨、径流深、最大月降雨和最大月径流深突变不显著,降雨径流关系变异年份分别为1975、1985和1995年,1975年后流域汛期产流能力减弱;(3)大伙房水库汛期径流变化经历了4个阶段,人类活动是导致水库汛期径流深减少的主要原因,降雨变化是导致最大月径流深增加的主要原因。
Based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data from 1961 to 2004 in the flood seasons of Dahuofang Reservoir,the methods of Mann-Kendall tendency test,Mann-Kendall mutation inspection,Pettitt mutation inspection and rainfall and runoff double cumulative curve are adopted for analyzing mutability properties of the four serieses,i.e.the precipitation,the runoff depth,the maximum monthly precipitation and the monthly runoff depth of Dahuofang Reservoir during flood season,and then the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity is applied to quantitatively evaluate the impacts from the precipitation and the human activity on the runoff depth and the maximum monthly runoff in flood season.The result shows that(1) the decreasing trends of both the precipitation and the runoff depth during flood season in the basin are not significant,while the increasing trends of both the monthly precipitation and the monthly runoff depth are not significant as well;(2) the mutations of the precipitation,the runoff depth,the maximum monthly precipitation and the maximum monthly runoff depth in flood season are not significant,for which the mutated years of the precipitation-runoff relationship are 1975,1985,and 1995,moreover,the capacity of runoff yield during flood season in the basin after 1975 is decreased;(3) the change of the runoff in Dahuofang Reservoir experiences four stages,for which the human activity is the dominant factor to cause the decrease of the runoff depth of the reservoir in flood season,while the change of precipitation is the main causation for the increase of the maximum monthly runoff depth as well.
Based on the monthly runoff and precipitation data from 1961 to 2004 in the flood seasons of Dahuofang Reservoir,the methods of Mann-Kendall tendency test,Mann-Kendall mutation inspection,Pettitt mutation inspection and rainfall and runoff double cumulative curve are adopted for analyzing mutability properties of the four serieses,i.e.the precipitation,the runoff depth,the maximum monthly precipitation and the monthly runoff depth of Dahuofang Reservoir during flood season,and then the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity is applied to quantitatively evaluate the impacts from the precipitation and the human activity on the runoff depth and the maximum monthly runoff in flood season.The result shows that(1) the decreasing trends of both the precipitation and the runoff depth during flood season in the basin are not significant,while the increasing trends of both the monthly precipitation and the monthly runoff depth are not significant as well;(2) the mutations of the precipitation,the runoff depth,the maximum monthly precipitation and the maximum monthly runoff depth in flood season are not significant,for which the mutated years of the precipitation-runoff relationship are 1975,1985,and 1995,moreover,the capacity of runoff yield during flood season in the basin after 1975 is decreased;(3) the change of the runoff in Dahuofang Reservoir experiences four stages,for which the human activity is the dominant factor to cause the decrease of the runoff depth of the reservoir in flood season,while the change of precipitation is the main causation for the increase of the maximum monthly runoff depth as well.
引文
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[3]焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,等.近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响[J].中国水土保持科学,2015,13(6):12-19.
[4]刘春蓁,占车生,夏军,等.关于气候变化与人类活动对径流影响研究的评述[J].水利学报,2014,45(4):379-385.
[5]宋晓猛,张建云,占车生,等.气候变化和人类活动对水文循环影响研究进展[J].水利学报,2013,44(7):779-790.
[6]朱恒峰,赵文武,康慕谊,等.水土保持地区人类活动对汛期径流影响的估算[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):400-406.
[7]刘睿,夏军.气候变化和人类活动对淮河上游径流影响分析[J].人民黄河,2013,35(9):30-33.
[8]任明磊,王本德.大伙房水库流域降水及径流变化特征分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2008,40(4):484-490.
[9]钟子琳.大伙房水库区降水变化趋势及旱涝分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(29):18104-18105.
[10]刘伟,何俊仕,陈杨,等.大伙房水库入库径流演变规律及驱动力分析[J].沈阳农业大学学报,2015,46(2):250-255.
[11]于延胜,陈兴伟.基于Mann-Kendall法的水文序列趋势成分比重研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(9):1585-1591.
[12]樊晶晶,黄强,刘登峰,等.人类活动和气候变化对北洛河径流变化的影响[J].西北农林科技大学(自然科学版),2016,44(2):221-227.
[13]刘茂峰,高彦春,甘国靖.白洋淀流域年径流变化趋势及气象影响因子分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1438-1445.
[14]王随继,闫云霞,颜明,等.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析—累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):388-397.
[15]姜洋.大伙房水库降雨蒸发变化趋势分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(1):124-126.