成都市系统承载力分析报告——基于协同理论及耦合协调研究
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摘要
文章以提高生活质量为前提、以城市为尺度、以协同理论为指导,研究环境—经济—社会系统的承载力及协调性对实现可持续发展具有重要意义,构建了环境—经济—社会系统协调发展的综合指标体系,并运用状态空间法和耦合协调模型对2006—2015年成都市各区县的承载力及协调发展程度进行了评估。结果表明:成都市的综合承载力上升至中等水平,环境承载力常年处于较低水平,经济与社会承载力上升至中等偏高水平,各区县系统协调性演化趋势与综合承载力演化趋势大体一致。成都市在进行经济转型与社会功能完善的同时,更应秉持生态优先的原则,促进三者的协调发展,提升城市的综合承载力。
Based on the premise of improving the quality of life,taking the city as the yardstick and the synergy theory as the guidance,it is of great significance to study the carrying capacity and coordination of the environment economic social system to achieve sustainable development. The comprehensive index system of coordinated development of environment economy society system is constructed. The state space method and coupling coordination model are applied to evaluate the carrying capacity and coordinated development degree of districts and counties in Chengdu from 2006 to 2015. The results showed that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Chengdu increased to the middle level,the environmental carrying capacity was at a low level all the year round,and the economic and social carrying capacity increased to a medium high level. In the process of economic transformation and social function improvement,Chengdu should uphold the principle of ecological priority,promote the coordinated development of the three,and enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city.
Based on the premise of improving the quality of life,taking the city as the yardstick and the synergy theory as the guidance,it is of great significance to study the carrying capacity and coordination of the environment economic social system to achieve sustainable development. The comprehensive index system of coordinated development of environment economy society system is constructed. The state space method and coupling coordination model are applied to evaluate the carrying capacity and coordinated development degree of districts and counties in Chengdu from 2006 to 2015. The results showed that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Chengdu increased to the middle level,the environmental carrying capacity was at a low level all the year round,and the economic and social carrying capacity increased to a medium high level. In the process of economic transformation and social function improvement,Chengdu should uphold the principle of ecological priority,promote the coordinated development of the three,and enhance the comprehensive carrying capacity of the city.
引文
[1]张鹏,李萍,李文辉.基于适度人口容量的生态文明城市建设研究-以广东省惠州市为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(8):159-166.
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[3]Norgaard.Environmental economies:An evolutionary critique and plea for pluralism.[J].Journal of Environmental Economies and Management,1985,12(4):382-394.
[4]党晶晶,姚顺波,黄华.县域生态-经济-社会系统协调发展实证研究--以陕西省志丹县为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1984-1990.
[5]杨新刚,张守文,夏永久,陈晓华.安徽省县域“人口-经济-空间-环境”城镇化耦合协调性分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(2):81-86.
[6]宋宇辰,闫昱洁,王贺.呼包鄂能源-经济-环境系统协调发展评价[J].国土资源科技管理,2015,32(6):103-109.
[7]杨倩,蒙吉军,王晓东.基于多维状态空间法的漓江上游生态旅游承载力空间评价及提升策略[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(1):131-140.
[8]周成,冯学钢,唐睿.区域经济-生态环境-旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测--以长江经济带沿线各省市为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(3):186-193.
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[10]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.
[11]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[12]高鹭,张宏业.生态承载力的国内外研究进展[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2007,(2):19-26.
[13]杨潇.湖北省各市(州)资源环境承载力评价与时空差异研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017,(4):148-156.
[14]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态系统健康评价初探[J].中国环境科学,2002,(6):46-50.
[15]逯进,周惠民.中国省域人力资本与经济增长耦合关系的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(9):19-36.
[16]姜磊,柏玲,吴玉鸣.中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析--兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799.
[17]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系--以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,(2):76-82.
[18]石忆邵,尹昌应,王贺封,谭文垦.城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望[J].地理研究,2013,32(1):133-145.
[19]郑亚光,蒋瑛,王琨岚.四川省城市承载力评价[J].国土资源科技管理,2017,34(4):18-26.
[20]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.
[2]Haken,Hermann.Advanced synergetics[M].Beijing:Science Press,1989:47-53.
[3]Norgaard.Environmental economies:An evolutionary critique and plea for pluralism.[J].Journal of Environmental Economies and Management,1985,12(4):382-394.
[4]党晶晶,姚顺波,黄华.县域生态-经济-社会系统协调发展实证研究--以陕西省志丹县为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1984-1990.
[5]杨新刚,张守文,夏永久,陈晓华.安徽省县域“人口-经济-空间-环境”城镇化耦合协调性分析[J].地理与地理信息科学,2017,33(2):81-86.
[6]宋宇辰,闫昱洁,王贺.呼包鄂能源-经济-环境系统协调发展评价[J].国土资源科技管理,2015,32(6):103-109.
[7]杨倩,蒙吉军,王晓东.基于多维状态空间法的漓江上游生态旅游承载力空间评价及提升策略[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(1):131-140.
[8]周成,冯学钢,唐睿.区域经济-生态环境-旅游产业耦合协调发展分析与预测--以长江经济带沿线各省市为例[J].经济地理,2016,36(3):186-193.
[9]毛汉英,余丹林.区域承载力定量研究方法探讨[J].地球科学进展,2001,(4):549-555.
[10]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.
[11]朱江丽,李子联.长三角城市群产业-人口-空间耦合协调发展研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):75-82.
[12]高鹭,张宏业.生态承载力的国内外研究进展[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2007,(2):19-26.
[13]杨潇.湖北省各市(州)资源环境承载力评价与时空差异研究[J].中国科技论坛,2017,(4):148-156.
[14]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态系统健康评价初探[J].中国环境科学,2002,(6):46-50.
[15]逯进,周惠民.中国省域人力资本与经济增长耦合关系的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(9):19-36.
[16]姜磊,柏玲,吴玉鸣.中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析--兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799.
[17]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系--以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,(2):76-82.
[18]石忆邵,尹昌应,王贺封,谭文垦.城市综合承载力的研究进展及展望[J].地理研究,2013,32(1):133-145.
[19]郑亚光,蒋瑛,王琨岚.四川省城市承载力评价[J].国土资源科技管理,2017,34(4):18-26.
[20]逯进,常虹,赵少平,许抄军.山东省能源、经济与环境耦合关系的演化特征[J].经济地理,2016,36(9):42-48.