新时代下我国社会融资规模影响因素研究
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摘要
社会融资规模是具有中国特色的创新性指标,是指实体经济(即非金融企业和个人)从金融体系获得的资金量。在金融回归本源和服务实体经济问题的大背景下,对我国社会融资规模指标研究尤为重要。文章选取2002～2017年增量和存量数据,对社会融资规模的发展趋势和结构变动进行描述统计分析,对影响因素建立了Adaptive-Lasso回归模型并进行实证分析,量化了新时代下进出口金额、固定资产投资完成额和信心指数对社会融资规模的影响效果,最后提出防范金融风险的政策建议。
The aggregate financing refers to the amount of capital that the real economy(non-financial enterprises and individuals) receives from the financial system,which is an innovative indicator with Chinese characteristics. It is particularly important to study the indicators of social aggregate financing under the background of finance returning to its origin and serving the real economy. This paper describes and analyzes the development trend and structural changes of the aggregate financing to the real economy using the data from 2002 to 2017,and establishes the Adaptive-Lasso regression model for influencing factors. It quantifies the impact of import and export value,fixed assets investment completion value and confidence index on the aggregate financing in the new era. Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent financial risks.
The aggregate financing refers to the amount of capital that the real economy(non-financial enterprises and individuals) receives from the financial system,which is an innovative indicator with Chinese characteristics. It is particularly important to study the indicators of social aggregate financing under the background of finance returning to its origin and serving the real economy. This paper describes and analyzes the development trend and structural changes of the aggregate financing to the real economy using the data from 2002 to 2017,and establishes the Adaptive-Lasso regression model for influencing factors. It quantifies the impact of import and export value,fixed assets investment completion value and confidence index on the aggregate financing in the new era. Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions to prevent financial risks.
引文
[1]盛松成.社会融资规模理论与实践(第三版)[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2016.
[2]杨艳,杜知桓.利率对社会融资规模的影响分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2013,29(1):125-128.
[3]郝璐.金融发展对我国社会融资规模的影响研究[J].时代金融,2014(36):51,54.
[4]李晓朦.银信合作理财产品对社会融资规模的影响分析[D].蚌埠:安徽财经大学,2015.
[5]肖春萌.社会融资成本影响因素实证研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2016.
[6]刘波.中国利率波动对社会融资规模影响的实证分析[D].太原:山西大学,2016.
[7]张细松,李成圆,葛冰,等.“新常态”下货币供应、汇率政策对社会融资规模的影响[J].山东财经大学学报,2017,29(6):35-42.
[8] ROBERT TIBSHIRANI. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso[J].Journal of the royal statistical society. Series B.1996,58(1):267-288.
[9] HUI ZOU.The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties[J].Journal of the american statistical association. 2006,101(476):1418-1429.
[2]杨艳,杜知桓.利率对社会融资规模的影响分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2013,29(1):125-128.
[3]郝璐.金融发展对我国社会融资规模的影响研究[J].时代金融,2014(36):51,54.
[4]李晓朦.银信合作理财产品对社会融资规模的影响分析[D].蚌埠:安徽财经大学,2015.
[5]肖春萌.社会融资成本影响因素实证研究[D].大连:东北财经大学,2016.
[6]刘波.中国利率波动对社会融资规模影响的实证分析[D].太原:山西大学,2016.
[7]张细松,李成圆,葛冰,等.“新常态”下货币供应、汇率政策对社会融资规模的影响[J].山东财经大学学报,2017,29(6):35-42.
[8] ROBERT TIBSHIRANI. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso[J].Journal of the royal statistical society. Series B.1996,58(1):267-288.
[9] HUI ZOU.The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties[J].Journal of the american statistical association. 2006,101(476):1418-1429.