1961-2016年新疆单站不同等级冷空气过程气候特征及变化
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摘要
利用新疆1961年1月-2016年12月资料完整的89个国家气象观测站的日最低气温资料,根据中国气象局2017年发布的行业标准《冷空气过程监测指标》(QX/393-2017)的单站冷空气等级,计算近56 a来新疆各单站不同等级冷空气过程的发生频次、降温幅度、持续天数,应用线性趋势、EOF分解等分析方法,对新疆各单站不同等级冷空气过程的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:新疆单站不同等级冷空气年平均频次和年累计天数均表现为中等强度冷空气最多、寒潮次多、强冷空气最少,空间分布都呈现为北疆多、南疆少的分布特征;中等强度冷空气和强冷空气区域平均的年平均频次和年累计天数的年际变化均呈不显著减少趋势,寒潮均呈显著减少趋势,而空间分布上不是整体呈减少趋势,甚至个别地区呈显著增加趋势;中等强度冷空气和强冷空气在秋季前期和春季后期发生较多,寒潮则在冬季发生较多;中等强度以上冷空气年累计降温呈现北疆大、南疆小的分布特征,区域平均的年累计降温呈显著减小趋势;新疆年寒潮频次和年累计降温第一模态的方差贡献率分别为33%、39%,远远大于其它模态,第一模态(即主模态)的空间分布二者均表现为整个新疆为一致的正值,说明其变化趋势在全疆具有一致性的特征,另外北疆特征值较大,南疆特征值较小,说明北疆更容易出现异常,南疆不易出现异常。
Based on the daily minimum temperature data of 89 national meteorological stations from January 1961 to February 2017,within the single station cold air rate according to the Cold Wave Level(GB/T 21987-2008)and Cold Air Grade(GB/T 20484-2006) in the National Standard of the People' s Republic of China and the Cold Air Process Monitoring Index(QT/T 21987-2008) in the People's Republic of China Meteorological Industry Standard,we applied of linear trend,EOF decomposition and other analytical methods,and calculated the occurrence frequency,temperature drop and continuous days of the cold wave process of Xinjiang in the past 56 years,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the single-station cold wave in Xinjiang were analyzed. The results show,1) Xinjiang single station different levels of cold air annual average frequency and the cumulative number of days are the medium cold air up,the second most cold wave,strong cold air at least,spatial distribution characteristics were presented in northern Xinjiang more,southern Xinjiang less. 2) The annual mean frequency and annual cumulative number of medium strength and strong cold air showed no significant decrease trend,interannual fluctuations are more obvious. 3) Medium strength and strong cold air in the early fall and late spring occurred more,cold wave occurred in the winter more. 4) The cumulative temperature drop of the cold air above the medium strength are showing the distribution characteristics of the northern Xinjiang more,southern Xinjiang less,and the distribution of the regional average is significantly reduced. 5) The first mode of annual cold wave frequency and accumulative temperature drop were 33% and 39%,far more than other mode,and their spatial distribution of the first mode were expressed as a positive value for the whole of Xinjiang,and the characteristic value of northern Xinjiang is larger than southern Xinjiang,indicating that their trends are consistent with the characteristics of the trend,while the northern Xinjiang is more prone to abnormal,southern Xinjiang is not easy to abnormal. Prior to the 1980 s,their coherence interannual variability was mainly for positive phase,indicating that there is much more likely to be consistent,since 2000,the time coefficient is mainly in the negative phase,indicating that there is less coincidence.
Based on the daily minimum temperature data of 89 national meteorological stations from January 1961 to February 2017,within the single station cold air rate according to the Cold Wave Level(GB/T 21987-2008)and Cold Air Grade(GB/T 20484-2006) in the National Standard of the People' s Republic of China and the Cold Air Process Monitoring Index(QT/T 21987-2008) in the People's Republic of China Meteorological Industry Standard,we applied of linear trend,EOF decomposition and other analytical methods,and calculated the occurrence frequency,temperature drop and continuous days of the cold wave process of Xinjiang in the past 56 years,and the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the single-station cold wave in Xinjiang were analyzed. The results show,1) Xinjiang single station different levels of cold air annual average frequency and the cumulative number of days are the medium cold air up,the second most cold wave,strong cold air at least,spatial distribution characteristics were presented in northern Xinjiang more,southern Xinjiang less. 2) The annual mean frequency and annual cumulative number of medium strength and strong cold air showed no significant decrease trend,interannual fluctuations are more obvious. 3) Medium strength and strong cold air in the early fall and late spring occurred more,cold wave occurred in the winter more. 4) The cumulative temperature drop of the cold air above the medium strength are showing the distribution characteristics of the northern Xinjiang more,southern Xinjiang less,and the distribution of the regional average is significantly reduced. 5) The first mode of annual cold wave frequency and accumulative temperature drop were 33% and 39%,far more than other mode,and their spatial distribution of the first mode were expressed as a positive value for the whole of Xinjiang,and the characteristic value of northern Xinjiang is larger than southern Xinjiang,indicating that their trends are consistent with the characteristics of the trend,while the northern Xinjiang is more prone to abnormal,southern Xinjiang is not easy to abnormal. Prior to the 1980 s,their coherence interannual variability was mainly for positive phase,indicating that there is much more likely to be consistent,since 2000,the time coefficient is mainly in the negative phase,indicating that there is less coincidence.
引文
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[2]Shi Yuguang.Chinese meteorological disaster encyclopedia:X injiang v o lum e[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2006:36-67.[史玉光.中国气象灾害大典:新疆卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:36-67.]
[3]Ren Yiyong.Xinjiang decision meteorological service guidance manual[M].rümqi:University of Xinjiang Press,2006:14-34.[任宜勇.新疆决策气象服务指导手册[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学出版社,2006:14-34.]
[4]Zhou Lin,Sun Zhaobo.Activity characteristics of cold air in China from 1961 to 2010[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,2015,38(3):342-353.[周琳,孙照渤.1961-2010年我国冷空气的活动特征[J].大气科学学报,2015,38(3):342-353.]
[5]Wang Zunya,Ding Yihui.Climate change of the cold wave frequency of China in the last 53 years and the possible reasons[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2006,30(6):1068-1076.[王遵娅,丁一汇.近53年中国寒潮的变化特征及其可能原因[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1068-1076.]
[6]Wei Fengying.Variation characteristicsof the cold wave in China under the back ground of globalwarming[J].Progress in Natural Science,2008,18(3):289-295.[魏凤英.气候变暖背景下我国寒潮灾害的变化特征[J].自然科学进展,2008,18(3):289-295.]
[7]Qian Weihong,Zhang Weiwei.Changes in cold wave events and warm winter in China during the last 46 years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2007,31(6):1266-1278.[钱维宏,张玮玮.我国近46年来的寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖[J].大气科学,2007,31(6):1266-1278.]
[8]Kang Zhiming,Jin Ronghua,Zhang Weiwei.Characteristic analysis of cold wave in China during the period of 1951-2006[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(2):420-428.[康志明,金荣花,张玮玮.1951-2006年期间我国寒潮活动特征分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):420-428.]
[9]Wu Hongyu,Du Yaodong.Climatic characteristics of cold waves in South China in the period 1961-2008[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2010,6(3):192-197.[伍红雨,杜尧东.1961-2008年华南区域寒潮变化的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):192-197.]
[10]Yao Yongming,Yao Lei,Deng Weitao.Analysis of the frequencycharacteristics of the similar cold wave in the middle and lowerreaches of the Yangtze River[J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(3):339-344.[姚永明,姚雷,邓伟涛.长江中下游地区类寒潮发生频次的变化特征分析[J].气象,2011,37(3):339-344.]
[11]Duan Liyao,Liu Aixia,Yu Lili.Temporal and spatial distribution of cold wave and its variation around the Bohai Sea region from 1961 to 2010[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(4):54-58.[段丽瑶,刘爱霞,于莉莉.1961-2010年环渤海地区寒潮时空分布及变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(4):54-58.]
[12]Meng Xiangjun,Wu Zhengfang,Du Haibo,et al.Spatio-temporal characteristics of cold wave over northeast China during 1961-2010[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(1):142-147.[孟祥君,吴正方,杜海波,等.1961-2010年东北地区寒潮活动的时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(1):142-147.]
[13]Chen Yuying,Chen Nan,Ma Jinren,et al.Varietyof Ningxia cold waves in the last 48 years and its possible reasons[J].Journal of Natural Resource,2010,25(6):939-951.[陈豫英,陈楠,马金仁,等.近48 a宁夏寒潮的变化特征及可能影响的成因初步分析[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(6):939-951.]
[14]Zhou Changchun,Chen Guixun,Shi Rui.Researches on cold wave and the profiles of coldwave in Sichuan basin[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2010,30(4):64-67.[周长春,谌贵珣,师锐.寒潮研究及四川盆地寒潮概况[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30(4):64-67.]
[15]Zhang Yanmei,Zhang Puyu,Gu Xin,et al.Analysis of climatic characteristics of cold wave in Guizhou Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometerology,2010,31(1):151-154.[张艳梅,张普宇,顾欣,等.贵州高原寒潮灾害的气候特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):151-154.]
[16]Zhao Yuguang,Yu Changwen,He Lihua.Climatic characteristics of cold wave weather and warming winter in Hebei Province during 1962-2008[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2012,30(2):245-248.[赵玉广,于长文,何丽华.河北省寒潮的气候特征与冬季增暖[J].干旱气象,2012,30(2):245-248.]
[17]Yan Qi,Lu Jinglong,Tian Li,et al.Spatial and temporal distributions of cold wave from 1971 to 2011 in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(4):63-69.[阎琦,陆井龙,田莉,等.1971-2011年辽宁寒潮时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(4):63-69.]
[18]Zhu Hongfang,Yu Jinlong,Qiu Xuexing,et al.Climatic characteristics of cold wave of Anhui Province in the last 52 years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(1):116-121.[朱红芳,余金龙,邱学兴.安徽省近52年寒潮的气候特征分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):116-121.]
[19]Wang Ying,Chen Li,Li Yongsheng,et al.Climatic characterisitcs of cold wave in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2012[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2014,30(5):125-130.[王莹,陈莉,李永生,等.1961-2012年黑龙江省寒潮气候特征[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(5):125-130.]
[20]Liu Xianfeng,Zhu Xiufang,Pan Yaozhong,et al.The spatialtemporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongoliaduring recent 53years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2010,25(6):939-951.[刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,等.近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):1013-1024.]
[21]The Writing Group of Xinjiang Short-term Forecast Handbook.Xinjiang short-term weather forecast guidance manual[M].rümqi:Xinjiang People's Publishing House,1986:184-215.[新疆短期预报手册编写组.新疆短期天气预报指导手册[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1986:184-215.]
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