中国农村家庭消费方程估计与预测
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摘要
中国农村家庭消费问题的研究,对于实现"增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用"的目标,理解城镇化对我国消费的影响,以及提高农村家庭生活水平,实现"乡村振兴战略",有着非常重要的意义。本文利用农村固定观测点数据,通过将横截面数据和时间序列数据相结合,使用非线性3阶段最小二乘法(NL3SLS)对我国农村家庭的消费结构进行了估计和分析,并且对未来的消费进行了预测。研究结果发现:(1)食品和居住的收入弹性较低,服务的收入弹性较高,而消费品的收入弹性接近1;(2)自价格弹性中,食品最低,居住最高,而服务相比消费品更低;(3)四类商品两两之间都存在相互替代性,但消费品和居住之间的替代性相对更强;(4)人口结构的变化对农村家庭消费结构的影响不大,随着生活水平的提高,食品、居住的消费占比不断下降,服务的消费占比大幅提高,而消费品消费占比的提高则不太明显。因此,为了促进农村家庭的消费,政府不仅要大力发展农村的服务业,也要适当对农村的消费品进行价格补贴。
To get a better economic structure and rise the consumption share in the GDP,it is very important to understand the patterns of rural household consumption in China.It also helps to evaluate the impact of urbanization on consumption and improve the standard of living for the rural households.In our work,we use the rural household panel data from the Research Center for Rural Economy(RCRE)to estimate the consumption function of rural households in China,using the Nonlinear 3-Stage Least Square(NL3SLS)method.We also project the consumption patterns of rural households in China for the future.There are several main findings:1.Food and Housing are income inelastic,service is very income elastic,while the elasticity of consumer goods is very close to 1;2.Food is price inelastic,housing is very price elastic,and service has lower price elasticity than consumer goods;3.All the four kinds of goods are substitutes in pairs,however,the substitution effect between consumer goods and housing is relatively strong;4.With the growth of the economy in the future,the expenditure shares of food and housing keep going down,while the service share goes up rapidly.The expenditure share of consumer goods increases mildly.Therefore,it is not only necessary to develop the service industry in the rural areas,but also very important to use some policy instruments to stimulate the demand of rural households for consumer goods.Subsiding the rural households for their purchasing of consumer goods may be an appropriate way to achieve it.
To get a better economic structure and rise the consumption share in the GDP,it is very important to understand the patterns of rural household consumption in China.It also helps to evaluate the impact of urbanization on consumption and improve the standard of living for the rural households.In our work,we use the rural household panel data from the Research Center for Rural Economy(RCRE)to estimate the consumption function of rural households in China,using the Nonlinear 3-Stage Least Square(NL3SLS)method.We also project the consumption patterns of rural households in China for the future.There are several main findings:1.Food and Housing are income inelastic,service is very income elastic,while the elasticity of consumer goods is very close to 1;2.Food is price inelastic,housing is very price elastic,and service has lower price elasticity than consumer goods;3.All the four kinds of goods are substitutes in pairs,however,the substitution effect between consumer goods and housing is relatively strong;4.With the growth of the economy in the future,the expenditure shares of food and housing keep going down,while the service share goes up rapidly.The expenditure share of consumer goods increases mildly.Therefore,it is not only necessary to develop the service industry in the rural areas,but also very important to use some policy instruments to stimulate the demand of rural households for consumer goods.Subsiding the rural households for their purchasing of consumer goods may be an appropriate way to achieve it.
引文
白重恩,李宏彬,吴斌珍.2012.医疗保险与消费:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,(2):41-53.
陈玉宇,行伟波.2006.消费平滑、风险分担与完全保险——基于城镇家庭收支调查的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),6(1):253-272.
甘犁,刘国恩,马双.2010.基本医疗保险对促进家庭消费的影响[J].经济研究,(S1):30-38.
雷钦礼.2009.财富积累、习惯、偏好改变、不确定性与家庭消费决策[J].经济学(季刊),8(3):1029-1046.
李涛,陈斌开.2014.家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据[J].经济研究,(3):62-75.
梁慧芳.2015.我国城镇居民家庭能源消费研究与碳税政策模拟应用[D].北京:清华大学经济管理学院.
穆月英,笠原浩三,松田敏信.2001.中国城乡居民消费需求系统的AIDS模型分析[J].经济问题,(8):25-28.
谭涛,张燕媛,唐若迪,等.2014.中国农村居民家庭消费结构分析:基于QUAIDS模型的两阶段一致估计[J].中国农村经济,(9):17-31.
王志刚,许前军.2012.探索农村食品消费结构的转变规律-一个嵌入时间路径的LA/AIDS模型的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(1):50-64.
尹志超,甘犁.2009.中国住房改革对家庭耐用品消费的影响[J].经济学(季刊),9(1):53-72.
臧文斌,刘国恩,徐菲,等.2012.中国城镇居民基本医疗保险对家庭消费的影响[J].经济研究,(7):75-85.
张大永,曹红.2012.家庭财富与消费:基于微观调查数据的分析[J].经济研究,(S1):53-65.
张凡永.2007.江西省农村居民消费行为特征的动态分析[J].农业技术经济,(3):56-63.
B9lük G,Ko9A A.2010.Electricity demand of manufacturing sector in Turkey:a translog cost approach[J].Energy Economics,32(3):609-615.
Brandt L,Holz C A.2006.Spatial price differences in China:estimates and implications[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,55(1):43-86.
Chen Y Y,Xing W B.2011.Quantity,quality,and regional price variation of cigarettes:Demand analysis based on a household survey in China[J].China Economic Review,22(2):221-232.
Christensen L R,Jorgenson D W,Lau L J.1975.Transcendental logarithmic utility functions[J].The American Economic Review,65(3):367-383.
Deaton A,Muellbauer J.1980.An almost ideal demand system anaysis for meats with habit formation and structural change[J].Canadian Journal of Agriculture Economics,39(2):223-235.
Fan S G,Wails E J,Cramer G L.1995.Household demand in rural China:a twostage LES-AIDS model[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,77(1):54-62.
Gould B W,Villarreal H J.2006.An assessment of the current structure of food demand in urban China[J].Agricultural Economics,34(1):1-16.
Holt M T,Goodwin B K.2009.The almost ideal and translog demand systems[M]//Slottje D.Quantifying consumer preferences.UK:Emerald Group Publishing Limited:37-60.
Hovhannisyan V,Gould B W.2014.Structural change in urban Chinese food preferences[J].Agricultural Economics,45(2):159-166.
Kumar P,Kumar A,Parappurathu S,et al.2011.Estimation of demand elasticity for food commodities in India[J].Agricultural Economics Research Review,24(1):1-14.
Lau L J.1982.A note on the fundamental theorem of exact aggregation[J].Economics Letters,9(2):119-126.
JorgensonD W,Lau L J.1975.The structure of consumer preferences[J].Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,4(1):49-101.
Jorgenson D W,Slesnick D T.1987.Aggregate consumer behavior and household equivalence scales[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,5(2):219-232.
JorgensonD W,Slesnick D T.2008.Consumption and labor supply[J].Journal of Econometrics,147(2):326-335.
JorgensonD W,Goettle R J,Ho M S,et al.2013.Double dividend:environmental taxes and fiscal reform in the United States[M].Cambridge:MIT Press.
Mittal S.2010.Application of the QUAIDS model to the food sector in India[J].Journal of Quantitative Economics,8(1):42-54.
Molina J A,Gil A I.2005.The demand behaviour of consumers in Peru:a demographic analysis using the QUAIDS[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,31(1):191-206.
Moschini G.1999.Imposing local curvature conditions in flexible demand systems[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,17(4):487-490.
Ortega D L,Wang H H,Eales J S.2009.Meat demand in China[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,1(4):410-419.
Slesnick D T.2002.Prices and regional variation in welfare[J].Journal of Urban Economics,51(3):446-468.
Wadud Z,Graham D J,Noland R B.2010.Gasoline demand with heterogeneity in household responses[J].The Energy Journal,31(1):47-74.
Zheng Z H,Henneberry S R.2009.An analysis of food demand in China:a case study of urban households in Jiangsu province[J].Review of Agricultural Economics,31(4):873-893.
Zhuang R,Abbott P.2007.Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China[J].China Economic Review,18(2):155-169.
(1)首先,他们估算的分地区农村家庭消费价格不准确。其文中采用2011年《中国物价年鉴》统计的各省(区、市)的各项生活消费中主要产品的价格进行加权平均,计算出农村居民家庭各项生活消费的价格。但事实上,《中国物价年鉴》中只有36个大中城市的平均价格。而且,《中国物价年鉴》中覆盖的商品部类不全面,也没有任何关于农村家庭自产自销商品价格的信息,只有农产品的零售价。另外,由于只使用了一年的横截面数据来进行估计,导致数据在时间维度上没有变化,这样的做法,一方面降低了识别的精度;另一方面,也进一步放大了分地区农村家庭消费价格不准确对估计导致的偏误。最后,他们使用的商品分类也有一些问题,他们使用的分类,与农村固定观察点数据的分类有所冲突。在农村固定观察点数据中,交通通讯、医疗保健、文化教育的商品消费部分与耐用品合并在用品项目中,并不像他们文中使用的那样能够单独识别。
(1)我们使用的工具变量包括:年份、GDP、城镇职工工资、政府支出占比、农业人均产出、出口占比、投资占比。
陈玉宇,行伟波.2006.消费平滑、风险分担与完全保险——基于城镇家庭收支调查的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),6(1):253-272.
甘犁,刘国恩,马双.2010.基本医疗保险对促进家庭消费的影响[J].经济研究,(S1):30-38.
雷钦礼.2009.财富积累、习惯、偏好改变、不确定性与家庭消费决策[J].经济学(季刊),8(3):1029-1046.
李涛,陈斌开.2014.家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据[J].经济研究,(3):62-75.
梁慧芳.2015.我国城镇居民家庭能源消费研究与碳税政策模拟应用[D].北京:清华大学经济管理学院.
穆月英,笠原浩三,松田敏信.2001.中国城乡居民消费需求系统的AIDS模型分析[J].经济问题,(8):25-28.
谭涛,张燕媛,唐若迪,等.2014.中国农村居民家庭消费结构分析:基于QUAIDS模型的两阶段一致估计[J].中国农村经济,(9):17-31.
王志刚,许前军.2012.探索农村食品消费结构的转变规律-一个嵌入时间路径的LA/AIDS模型的应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,(1):50-64.
尹志超,甘犁.2009.中国住房改革对家庭耐用品消费的影响[J].经济学(季刊),9(1):53-72.
臧文斌,刘国恩,徐菲,等.2012.中国城镇居民基本医疗保险对家庭消费的影响[J].经济研究,(7):75-85.
张大永,曹红.2012.家庭财富与消费:基于微观调查数据的分析[J].经济研究,(S1):53-65.
张凡永.2007.江西省农村居民消费行为特征的动态分析[J].农业技术经济,(3):56-63.
B9lük G,Ko9A A.2010.Electricity demand of manufacturing sector in Turkey:a translog cost approach[J].Energy Economics,32(3):609-615.
Brandt L,Holz C A.2006.Spatial price differences in China:estimates and implications[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,55(1):43-86.
Chen Y Y,Xing W B.2011.Quantity,quality,and regional price variation of cigarettes:Demand analysis based on a household survey in China[J].China Economic Review,22(2):221-232.
Christensen L R,Jorgenson D W,Lau L J.1975.Transcendental logarithmic utility functions[J].The American Economic Review,65(3):367-383.
Deaton A,Muellbauer J.1980.An almost ideal demand system anaysis for meats with habit formation and structural change[J].Canadian Journal of Agriculture Economics,39(2):223-235.
Fan S G,Wails E J,Cramer G L.1995.Household demand in rural China:a twostage LES-AIDS model[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,77(1):54-62.
Gould B W,Villarreal H J.2006.An assessment of the current structure of food demand in urban China[J].Agricultural Economics,34(1):1-16.
Holt M T,Goodwin B K.2009.The almost ideal and translog demand systems[M]//Slottje D.Quantifying consumer preferences.UK:Emerald Group Publishing Limited:37-60.
Hovhannisyan V,Gould B W.2014.Structural change in urban Chinese food preferences[J].Agricultural Economics,45(2):159-166.
Kumar P,Kumar A,Parappurathu S,et al.2011.Estimation of demand elasticity for food commodities in India[J].Agricultural Economics Research Review,24(1):1-14.
Lau L J.1982.A note on the fundamental theorem of exact aggregation[J].Economics Letters,9(2):119-126.
JorgensonD W,Lau L J.1975.The structure of consumer preferences[J].Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,4(1):49-101.
Jorgenson D W,Slesnick D T.1987.Aggregate consumer behavior and household equivalence scales[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,5(2):219-232.
JorgensonD W,Slesnick D T.2008.Consumption and labor supply[J].Journal of Econometrics,147(2):326-335.
JorgensonD W,Goettle R J,Ho M S,et al.2013.Double dividend:environmental taxes and fiscal reform in the United States[M].Cambridge:MIT Press.
Mittal S.2010.Application of the QUAIDS model to the food sector in India[J].Journal of Quantitative Economics,8(1):42-54.
Molina J A,Gil A I.2005.The demand behaviour of consumers in Peru:a demographic analysis using the QUAIDS[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,31(1):191-206.
Moschini G.1999.Imposing local curvature conditions in flexible demand systems[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,17(4):487-490.
Ortega D L,Wang H H,Eales J S.2009.Meat demand in China[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,1(4):410-419.
Slesnick D T.2002.Prices and regional variation in welfare[J].Journal of Urban Economics,51(3):446-468.
Wadud Z,Graham D J,Noland R B.2010.Gasoline demand with heterogeneity in household responses[J].The Energy Journal,31(1):47-74.
Zheng Z H,Henneberry S R.2009.An analysis of food demand in China:a case study of urban households in Jiangsu province[J].Review of Agricultural Economics,31(4):873-893.
Zhuang R,Abbott P.2007.Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China[J].China Economic Review,18(2):155-169.
(1)首先,他们估算的分地区农村家庭消费价格不准确。其文中采用2011年《中国物价年鉴》统计的各省(区、市)的各项生活消费中主要产品的价格进行加权平均,计算出农村居民家庭各项生活消费的价格。但事实上,《中国物价年鉴》中只有36个大中城市的平均价格。而且,《中国物价年鉴》中覆盖的商品部类不全面,也没有任何关于农村家庭自产自销商品价格的信息,只有农产品的零售价。另外,由于只使用了一年的横截面数据来进行估计,导致数据在时间维度上没有变化,这样的做法,一方面降低了识别的精度;另一方面,也进一步放大了分地区农村家庭消费价格不准确对估计导致的偏误。最后,他们使用的商品分类也有一些问题,他们使用的分类,与农村固定观察点数据的分类有所冲突。在农村固定观察点数据中,交通通讯、医疗保健、文化教育的商品消费部分与耐用品合并在用品项目中,并不像他们文中使用的那样能够单独识别。
(1)我们使用的工具变量包括:年份、GDP、城镇职工工资、政府支出占比、农业人均产出、出口占比、投资占比。