对流层顶折叠检测新方法及其在中纬度灾害性天气预报中的应用
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摘要
对流层顶折叠是中纬度地区对流层上层—平流层下层区域(简称UT/LS)内的一个重要的大气现象,它与气旋生、暴雨强对流触发以及降水增幅密切相关。由于这些天气条件下的大气状况异常复杂,因此目前国际上普遍采用的基于干大气条件的对流层顶折叠检测方法存在很大局限性。本文在借鉴已有的卫星资料和数值预报相结合的模式识别法的基础上,通过统计分析的方法建立了高层大气水汽与广义湿位涡、臭氧浓度的关系以及对流层顶折叠与高空急流的位置关系,同时考虑了动力对流层顶高度在判识过程中的辅助作用,建立了一套基于FY-2E静止气象卫星遥感数据的,适用于与暴雨强对流有关的对流层顶折叠动态监测新方法。在利用FY-3A和FY-3B反演的臭氧总量、臭氧垂直廓线以及ECMWF Interim资料计算的位涡等资料对算法进行精度验证的基础上,将该方法在2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨天气过程以及2013年5月14~17日华南大暴雨天气过程的监测和分析上进行了应用,并取得了较好的效果。从应用效果看,本文提出的这种对流层顶折叠识别方法是合理可行的,并具有一定的应用价值,可为中纬度地区暴雨强对流天气的监测和预警提供参考指标。
Tropopause folding is an important mid-latitude atmosphere phenomenon occurring within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that always correspond to cyclogenesis, rainstorm and convection generation, and precipitation enhancement. Because the atmospheric environment for these above-mentioned weather phenomena is very complicated, preexisting popular schemes that do not consider water vapor may not be suitable for detecting the accompanying tropopause folding. Regarding the merits and demerits of the pattern recognition scheme on the basis of satellite and numerical data, a dynamic new scheme based on FY-2E geostationary weather satellite data is presented to detect tropopause folding related to rainstorms. The core concept of this scheme is based on the statistical relationship between tropopause folding and the water vapor at the high-level troposphere, general moist potential vorticity, ozone, and upper-level jet while simultaneously considering the auxiliary effect of the height of the dynamic tropopause. After accuracy verification using the total amount of ozone and ozone profile operational products retrieved by FY-3A and FY-3B and the potential vorticity calculated by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) Interim data, this scheme is applied to analyze two typical middle-latitude weather processes. One is the famous Beijing extreme rainfall of July 21, 2012, and the other is the South China rainstorm that occurred during May 14–17, 2013. A good application effect of both cases suggests that our new method for tropopause folding detection is feasible and can be helpful in middle-latitude disastrous weather monitoring and forecasting.
Tropopause folding is an important mid-latitude atmosphere phenomenon occurring within the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that always correspond to cyclogenesis, rainstorm and convection generation, and precipitation enhancement. Because the atmospheric environment for these above-mentioned weather phenomena is very complicated, preexisting popular schemes that do not consider water vapor may not be suitable for detecting the accompanying tropopause folding. Regarding the merits and demerits of the pattern recognition scheme on the basis of satellite and numerical data, a dynamic new scheme based on FY-2E geostationary weather satellite data is presented to detect tropopause folding related to rainstorms. The core concept of this scheme is based on the statistical relationship between tropopause folding and the water vapor at the high-level troposphere, general moist potential vorticity, ozone, and upper-level jet while simultaneously considering the auxiliary effect of the height of the dynamic tropopause. After accuracy verification using the total amount of ozone and ozone profile operational products retrieved by FY-3A and FY-3B and the potential vorticity calculated by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF) Interim data, this scheme is applied to analyze two typical middle-latitude weather processes. One is the famous Beijing extreme rainfall of July 21, 2012, and the other is the South China rainstorm that occurred during May 14–17, 2013. A good application effect of both cases suggests that our new method for tropopause folding detection is feasible and can be helpful in middle-latitude disastrous weather monitoring and forecasting.
引文
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黄富祥,黄煜,Flynn L E,等.2013.紫外臭氧垂直探测仪(SBUS)辐射定标和反演臭氧垂直廓线验证[J].气象科技进展,3(4):108–115.Huang Fuxiang,Huang Yu,Flynn L E,et al.2013.Radiometric calibrationof the solar backscatter ultraviolet sounder and validation of ozone profileretrievals[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology(inChinese),3(4):108–115.
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Moody J L,Wimmers A J,Devenport J C.1999.Remotely sensed specifichumidity:development of a derived product from the GOES ImagerChannel 3[J].Geophys.Res.Let.,26:59–62.
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Shapiro M A.1978.Further evidence of the mesoscale and turbulencestructure of upper level jet stream-frontal zone systems[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,106:1100–1111.
寿绍文,励申申,姚秀萍.2003.中尺度气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,370pp.Shou Shaowen,Li Shenshen,Yao Xiuping.2003.MesoscaleMeteorology(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,370pp.
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王庚辰,孔琴心,陈洪滨.2006.北京地区对流层顶变化及其对上对流层/下平流层区域臭氧变化的影响[J].大气科学,30(4):587–595.
Wang Gengchen,Kong Qinxin,Chen Hongbin.2006.Variation of the tropopause height and its influence on ozone variation in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over Beijing[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(4):587–595.
王旻燕,吕达仁.2007.东亚强对流云的季节变化及其与对流层顶关系初探[J].大气科学,31(5):937–949.Wang Minyan,LüDaren.2007.
Preliminary analysis on seasonal variation of deep convective clouds and ts association with the tropopause in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(5):937–949.
王东海,杨帅.2009.一个干侵入参数及其应用[J].气象学报,67:522–529.Wang Donghai,Yang Shuai.2009.A dry intrusion parameterand its application[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):522–529.
王维和,张兴赢,安兴琴,等.2010.风云三号气象卫星全球臭氧总量反演和真实性检验结果分析[J].科学通报,55:1726–1733.WangWeihe,Zhang Xingying,An Xingqin,et al.2010.Analysis for retrievaland validation results of FY-3 Total Ozone Unit(TOU)[J].Chinese Sci.Bull.(in Chinese),55:1726–1733.
Wang W H,Zhang X Y,Wang Y M,et al.2011.Introduction to the FY-3Atotal ozone unit:Instrument,performance and results[J].Int.J.RemoteSens.,32:4749–4758.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L,Browell E V,et al.2003.Signatures of tropopausefolding in satellite imagery[J].J.Geophys.Res.,108(D4),doi:10.1029/2001JD001358.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L.2004a.Tropopause folding at satellite-observedspatial gradients:1.Verification of an emipirical relationship[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109:D19306,doi:10.1029/2003JD004145.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L.2004b.Tropopause folding at satellite-observedspatial gradients:2.Development of an empirical model[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109:D19307,doi:10.1029/2003JD004146.
Wu J,Zhang G M,Xia J,et al.2009.Research on cerebral aneurysmdetection based on OPTA algorithm[C]//Proceedings of the 2009International Symposium on Information Processing(ISIP’09).Huangshan,China,37–40.
姚秀萍,彭广,于玉斌.2009.干侵入强度指数的表征及其物理意义[J].高原气象,28:507–515.Yao Xiuping,Peng Guang,Yu Yubin.2009.Dry intrusion index and its physical interpretation[J].PlateauMeteorology(in Chinese),28:507–515.
Zhang Y,Wang W H,Zhang X Y,et al.2013.Interannual variations of Arcticozone and their relationship to the polar vortex[J].J.Remote Sens.,17:527–540.
Bak J,Liu X,Wei J C,et al.2013.Improvement of OMI ozone profileretrievals in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by the use of atropopause-based ozone profile climatology[J].Atmos.Meas.Tech.,6:2239–2254.
Bertin F,Campistron B,Caccia J L,et al.2001.Mixing processes in atropopause folding observed by a network of ST radar and lidar[J].Ann.Geophys.,19(8):953–963.
Bithell M,Gray L J,Cox B D.1999.A three-dimensional view of theevolution of midlatitudes stratospheric intrusions[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,56(5):673–688.
Carr F H,Millard J P.1985.A composite study of comma clouds and theirassociation with severe weather over the Great Plains[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,113:370–387.
Gao S T,Wang X R,Zhou Y S.2004.Generation of generalized moistpotential vorticity in a frictionless and moist adiabatic flow[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,31:L12113,doi:10.1029/2003GL019152.
Gao S T,Zhou F F.2008.Water vapour potential vorticity and itsapplications in tropical cyclones[J].Chin.Phys.Lett.,25(10):3830–3833.
Hu X Q,Xu N,Weng F Z,et al.2013.Long-tern monitoring and correctionof FY-2 infrared channel calibration using AIRS and IASI[J].IEEE Trans.Geosci.Remote Sens.,51(10):5008–5018.
黄富祥,黄煜,Flynn L E,等.2013.紫外臭氧垂直探测仪(SBUS)辐射定标和反演臭氧垂直廓线验证[J].气象科技进展,3(4):108–115.Huang Fuxiang,Huang Yu,Flynn L E,et al.2013.Radiometric calibrationof the solar backscatter ultraviolet sounder and validation of ozone profileretrievals[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology(inChinese),3(4):108–115.
Lamarque J F,Hess P G.1994.Cross-tropopause mass exchange andpotential vorticity budget in a simulated tropopause folding[J].J.Atmos.Sci.,51:2246–2269.
Lu F,Zhang X,Xu J.2008.Image navigation for the FY2 Geosynchronousmeteorological satellite[J].J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,25:1149–1165.
Michel Y,Bouttier F.2006.Automated tracking of dry intrusions on satellitewater vapour imagery and model output[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,132:2257–2276.
Michel Y.2010.Data assimulation of tropopause height using dry intrusionobservations[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,138:101–122.
Moody J L,Wimmers A J,Devenport J C.1999.Remotely sensed specifichumidity:development of a derived product from the GOES ImagerChannel 3[J].Geophys.Res.Let.,26:59–62.
Nastrom G D,Green J L,Gage K S,et al.1989.Tropopause folding and thevariability of the tropopause height as seen by the flatland VHF radar[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,28:1271–1281.
Reed R J.1955.A study of characteristic type of upper level frontogenesis[J].J.Meteor.,12:226–237.
Reid H J,Vaughan G.2004.Convective mixing in a tropopause fold[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,130:1195–1212.
Roger B W,Holmes S J.1991.Water vapor imagery:Interpretation andapplications to weather analysis and forecasting[R].NOAA Tech.Rep,NESDIS 57,213.
Shapiro M A.1978.Further evidence of the mesoscale and turbulencestructure of upper level jet stream-frontal zone systems[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,106:1100–1111.
寿绍文,励申申,姚秀萍.2003.中尺度气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,370pp.Shou Shaowen,Li Shenshen,Yao Xiuping.2003.MesoscaleMeteorology(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,370pp.
Soden B J,Bretherton F P.1993.Upper tropospheric relative humidity fromthe GOES 6.7μm channel:Method and climatology for July 1987[J].J.Geophys.Res.,98:16669–16688.
Soden B J,Bretherton F P.1996.Interpretation of TOVS water vaporradiances in terms of layer-average relative humidities:Method andclimatology for the upper,middle,and lower troposphere[J].J.Geophys.Res.,101:9333–9343.
王庚辰,孔琴心,陈洪滨.2006.北京地区对流层顶变化及其对上对流层/下平流层区域臭氧变化的影响[J].大气科学,30(4):587–595.
Wang Gengchen,Kong Qinxin,Chen Hongbin.2006.Variation of the tropopause height and its influence on ozone variation in upper troposphere/lower stratosphere over Beijing[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(4):587–595.
王旻燕,吕达仁.2007.东亚强对流云的季节变化及其与对流层顶关系初探[J].大气科学,31(5):937–949.Wang Minyan,LüDaren.2007.
Preliminary analysis on seasonal variation of deep convective clouds and ts association with the tropopause in East Asia[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),31(5):937–949.
王东海,杨帅.2009.一个干侵入参数及其应用[J].气象学报,67:522–529.Wang Donghai,Yang Shuai.2009.A dry intrusion parameterand its application[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(4):522–529.
王维和,张兴赢,安兴琴,等.2010.风云三号气象卫星全球臭氧总量反演和真实性检验结果分析[J].科学通报,55:1726–1733.WangWeihe,Zhang Xingying,An Xingqin,et al.2010.Analysis for retrievaland validation results of FY-3 Total Ozone Unit(TOU)[J].Chinese Sci.Bull.(in Chinese),55:1726–1733.
Wang W H,Zhang X Y,Wang Y M,et al.2011.Introduction to the FY-3Atotal ozone unit:Instrument,performance and results[J].Int.J.RemoteSens.,32:4749–4758.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L,Browell E V,et al.2003.Signatures of tropopausefolding in satellite imagery[J].J.Geophys.Res.,108(D4),doi:10.1029/2001JD001358.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L.2004a.Tropopause folding at satellite-observedspatial gradients:1.Verification of an emipirical relationship[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109:D19306,doi:10.1029/2003JD004145.
Wimmers A J,Moody J L.2004b.Tropopause folding at satellite-observedspatial gradients:2.Development of an empirical model[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109:D19307,doi:10.1029/2003JD004146.
Wu J,Zhang G M,Xia J,et al.2009.Research on cerebral aneurysmdetection based on OPTA algorithm[C]//Proceedings of the 2009International Symposium on Information Processing(ISIP’09).Huangshan,China,37–40.
姚秀萍,彭广,于玉斌.2009.干侵入强度指数的表征及其物理意义[J].高原气象,28:507–515.Yao Xiuping,Peng Guang,Yu Yubin.2009.Dry intrusion index and its physical interpretation[J].PlateauMeteorology(in Chinese),28:507–515.
Zhang Y,Wang W H,Zhang X Y,et al.2013.Interannual variations of Arcticozone and their relationship to the polar vortex[J].J.Remote Sens.,17:527–540.