中国探空观测与多套再分析资料气温序列的对比研究
|
摘要
为比较中国探空观测与再分析气温的差异,利用中国118站850—30hPa经质量控制和均一化处理后逐月气温和NCEPv1、NCEPv2、ERA-40、ERA-Interim、JRA55、20CR、MERRA和CFSR等8套再分析月平均气温,通过对比1981—2010年探空观测与多套再分析气温序列的平均偏差、相关系数、标准差和变化趋势,分析两者在数值、年际变率、离散度及长期变化的差异。结果表明,中国探空温度原始序列存在较为显著的非均一性,均一化对原始气温序列总体为负订正,对流层上层至平流层下层(200—100hPa)订正值最为显著。均一化气温去除了原始序列中由仪器换型和系统升级等因素导致的系统误差,与再分析气温相关较原始序列明显提高。再分析气温与均一化气温偏差约1℃,多数再分析气温较均一化气温在对流层偏低、平流层偏高。再分析与均一化气温年际变率较为一致,正相关达到显著。多数再分析与均一化气温均在对流层中低层呈上升趋势、平流层中层呈下降趋势。对流层上层和平流层下层不确定性较大。总体上,ERA-Interim、JRA55和MERRA与其他再分析相比更相近中国均一化探空气温。
The quality controlled(RAW)and homogenized(ADJ)radiosonde temperatures at 850—30hPa collected at 118 stations in China are compared,on a monthly mean basis,with the temperatures extracted from 8reanalysis datasets(REA)including NCEPv1,NCEPv2,ERA-40(ECMWF 45-yr Reanalysis),ERA-Interim,JRA55(Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis),20CR(20th Century Reanalysis),MERRA(Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis),and CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis).Average differences,correlations,standard deviations,and linear trends among RAW,ADJ,and REA for the period 1981-2010 are analyzed.The results reveal significant inhomogeneity in the time series of RAW radiosonde temperature in China;an overall negative adjustment was thus applied to obtain the ADJ temperatures,and the effect the negative adjustment is the most significant within 200—100hPa.Such a homogenization rocess has removed the system errors in RAW possibly caused by radiosonde instrument changes and observation system upgrades.Hence,the correlation is higher between ADJ and REA than that between RAW and REA.The mean difference between ADJ and REA is about 1℃ during 1981-2010,while REA are mostly cooler in the troposphere and warmer in the stratosphere than ADJ;nonetheless,they have a high positive significant correlation and their annual varialility is notably consistent annual variability.Furthermore,the trends in REA and ADJ both demonstrate warming in the lower-mid troposphere and cooling in the mid stratosphere,with large uncertainties found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.In general,ERA-Interim,JRA55,and MERRA are more consistent with ADJ than other reanalysis datasets.
The quality controlled(RAW)and homogenized(ADJ)radiosonde temperatures at 850—30hPa collected at 118 stations in China are compared,on a monthly mean basis,with the temperatures extracted from 8reanalysis datasets(REA)including NCEPv1,NCEPv2,ERA-40(ECMWF 45-yr Reanalysis),ERA-Interim,JRA55(Japanese 55-yr Reanalysis),20CR(20th Century Reanalysis),MERRA(Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis),and CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis).Average differences,correlations,standard deviations,and linear trends among RAW,ADJ,and REA for the period 1981-2010 are analyzed.The results reveal significant inhomogeneity in the time series of RAW radiosonde temperature in China;an overall negative adjustment was thus applied to obtain the ADJ temperatures,and the effect the negative adjustment is the most significant within 200—100hPa.Such a homogenization rocess has removed the system errors in RAW possibly caused by radiosonde instrument changes and observation system upgrades.Hence,the correlation is higher between ADJ and REA than that between RAW and REA.The mean difference between ADJ and REA is about 1℃ during 1981-2010,while REA are mostly cooler in the troposphere and warmer in the stratosphere than ADJ;nonetheless,they have a high positive significant correlation and their annual varialility is notably consistent annual variability.Furthermore,the trends in REA and ADJ both demonstrate warming in the lower-mid troposphere and cooling in the mid stratosphere,with large uncertainties found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.In general,ERA-Interim,JRA55,and MERRA are more consistent with ADJ than other reanalysis datasets.
引文
陈哲,杨溯.2014.1979-2012年中国探空温度资料中非均一性问题的检验与分析.气象学报,72(4):794-804.Chen Z,Yang S.2014.Homogenization and analysis of China radiosonde temperature data from 1979to 2012.Acta Meteor Sinica,72(4):794-804(in Chinese)
郭艳君,丁一汇.2008.近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势.应用气象学报,19(6):646-654.Guo Y J,Ding Y H.2008.Homogeneity and long-term trend analysis on radiosonde temperature time series in China during recent 50years.J Appl Meteor Sci,19(6):646-654(in Chinese)
郭艳君,李庆祥,丁一汇.2009.探空资料中的人为误差对中国温度长期变化趋势的影响.大气科学,33(6):1309-1318.Guo YJ,Li Q X,Ding Y H.2009.The effect of artificial bias on free air temperature trend derived from historical radiosonde data in China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(6):1309-1318(in Chinese)
黄刚.2006.NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40再分析资料以及探空观测资料分析中国北方地区年际气候变化.气候与环境研究,11(3):310-320.Huang G.2006.The assessment and difference of the interdecadal variations of climate change in northern part of China with the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40reanalysis data.Climatic Environ Res,11(3):310-320(in Chinese)
宋丰飞,周天军.2012.20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估.大气科学,36(6):1207-1222.Song F F,Zhou T J.2012.Reliability of the 20CR reanalysis data in measuring the East A-sian summer monsoon variability.Chinese J Atmos Sci,36(6):1207-1222(in Chinese)
王丹,盛立芳,石广玉等.2012.中国地表太阳辐射再分析数据与观测的比较.应用气象学报,23(6):729-738.Wang D,Sheng LF,Shi G Y,et al.2012.Comparison of surface solar radiation reanalysis data and observations over China.J Appl Meteor Sci,23(6):729-738(in Chinese)
韦芬芬,汤剑平,王淑瑜.2015.中国区域夏季再分析资料高空变量可信度的检验.地球物理学报,58(2):383-397.Wei F F,Tang J P,Wang S Y.2015.A reliability assessment of upperlevel reanalysis datasets over China.Chinese J Geophys,58(2):383-397(in Chinese)
熊安元,阮新,廖捷等.2015.中国地面和高空气候变化数据产品研发技术.北京:气象出版社,17-34.Xiong A Y,Ruan X,Liao J,et al.2015.Technology for the Development of Ground and High Altitude Climate Change Data Product in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,17-34(in Chinese)
徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.2001.美国NCEP/NCAR近50年全球再分析资料在我国气候变化研究中可信度的初步分析.应用气象学报,12(3):337-347.Xu Y,Ding Y H,Zhao Z C.2001.Confidence analysis of NCEP/NCAR 50-year global reanalyzed data in climate change research in China.J Appl Meteor Sci,12(3):337-347(in Chinese)
翟盘茂.1997.中国历史探空资料中的一些过失误差及偏差问题.气象学报,55(5):563-572.Zhai P M.1997.Some gross errors and biases in China's historical radiosonde data.Acta Meteor Sinica,55(5):563-572(in Chinese)
赵天保,符淙斌.2009a.几种再分析地表气温资料在中国区域的适应性评估.高原气象,28(3):594-606.Zhao T B,Fu Z B.2009a.Applicability evaluation of surface air temperature from several reanalysis datasets in China.Plateau Meteor,28(3):594-606(in Chinese)
赵天保,符淙斌.2009b.应用探空观测资料评估几类再分析资料在中国区域的适用性.大气科学,33(3):634-648.Zhao T B,Fu Z B.2009b.Applicability evaluation for several reanalysis datasets using the upper-air observations over China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(3):634-648(in Chinese)
支星,徐海明.2013.三种再分析资料的高空温度与中国探空温度资料的季节平均特征对比分析.高原气象,32(1):97-109.Zhi X,Xu H M.2013.Comparative analysis on monthly mean characteristic of free atmospheric temperature between three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde dataset in China.Plateau Meteor,32(1):97-109(in Chinese)
周顺武,张人禾.2009.青藏高原地区上空NCEP/NCAR再分析温度和位势高度资料与观测资料的比较分析.气候与环境研究,14(3):284-292.Zhou S W,Zhang R H.2009.Comparison of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde data about temperature and geopotential height of upper air over the Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Environ Res,14(3):284-292(in Chinese)
Bracegirdle T J,Marshall G J.2012.The reliability of antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses.J Climate,25(20):7138-7146
Christy J R,Spencer R W,Norris W B,et al.2003.Error estimates of version 5.0of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures.J Atmos Oceanic Technol,20(5):613-629
Compo G P,Whitaker J S,Sardeshmukh P D,et al.2011.The twentieth century reanalysis project.Quart J Roy MeteorSoc,137(654):1-28
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,137(656):553-597
Free M,Seidel D J,Angell J K,et al.2005.Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate(RAT-PAC):A new data set of large-area anomaly time series.J Geophys Res,110(D22):D22101,doi:10.1029/2005JD006169
Gaffen D J,Sargent M A,Habermann R E,et al.2000.Sensitivity of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature trends to radiosonde data quality.J Climate,13(10):1776-1796
Guo Y J,Ding Y H.2009.Long-term free-atmosphere temperature trends in China derived from homogenized in situ radiosonde temperature series.J Climate,22(4):1037-1051
Haimberger L.2007.Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics.J Climate,20(7):1377-1403
Haimberger L,Tavolato C,Sperka S.2008.Toward elimination of the warm bias in historic radiosonde temperature records-Some new results from a comprehensive intercomparison of upper-air data.J Climate,21(18):4587-4606
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471
Kanamitsu M,Ebisuzaki W,Woollen J,et al.2002.NCEP/DOEAMI-Ⅱreanalysis(R-2).Bull Amer Meteor Soc,83(11):1631-1643
Kistler R,CollinsW,Saha S,et al.2001.The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,82(2):247-267
Kobayashi S,OtaY,HaradaY,et al.2015.The JRA-55reanalysis:general specifications and basic characteristics.J Meteor Soc Japan,93(1):5-48
Marshall G J.2002.Trends in Antarctic geopotential height and temperature:A comparison between radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data.J Climate,15(6):659-674
Mears C A,Wentz F J.2009.Construction of the RSSV3.2lower tropospheric dataset from the MSU and AMSU microwave sounders.J Atmos Oceanic Technol,26(8):1493-1509
Mears C A,Wentz F J,Thorne P W.2012.Assessing the value of Microwave Sounding Unit-radiosonde comparisons in ascertaining errors in climate data records of tropospheric temperatures.J Geophys Res,117(D19):D19103,doi:10.1029/2012JD017710
Onogi K,Tsutsui J,Koide H,et al.2007.The JRA-25reanalysis.J Meteor Soc Japan,85(3):369-432
Rienecker M M,Suarez M J,Gelaro R,et al.2011.MERRA:NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications.J Climate,24(14):3624-3648
SahaS,Moorthi S,Pan H L,et al.2010.The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,91(8):1015-1057
Seidel D J,Angell J K,Christy J,et al.2004.Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets.J Climate,17(11):2225-2240
Sherwood S C,Meyer C L,Allen R J,et al.2008.Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data.J Climate,21(20):5336-5352
Thorne P W,Parker D E,Tett S F B,et al.2005.Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures from 1958to 2002.J Geophys Res,110(D18):D18105,doi:10.1029/2004JD005753
Uppala S M,KA·llberg P W,Simmons A J,et al.2005.The ERA-40reanalysis.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,131(612):2961-3012
Uppala S M,Dee D,Kobayashi S,et al.2008.Towards a climate data assimilation system:Status update of ERA-Interim.ECM-WF Newslett,115:12-18
Wang X L,Wen Q H,Wu Y H.2007.Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series.JAppl Meteor Climatol,46(6):916-931
Zhai P M,Eskridge R E.1996.Analyses of inhomogeneities in radiosonde temperature and humidity time series.J Climate,9(4):884-896
Zhang L X,Zhou T J.2013.A comparison of tropospheric temperature changes over China revealed by multiple data sets.J Geophys Res,118(10):4217-4230,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50370
Zou C Z,Wang W H.2011.Inter satellite calibration of AMSU-Aobservations for weather and climate applications.J Geophys Res,116(D23):D23113,doi:10.1029/2011JD016205
郭艳君,丁一汇.2008.近50年我国探空温度序列均一化及变化趋势.应用气象学报,19(6):646-654.Guo Y J,Ding Y H.2008.Homogeneity and long-term trend analysis on radiosonde temperature time series in China during recent 50years.J Appl Meteor Sci,19(6):646-654(in Chinese)
郭艳君,李庆祥,丁一汇.2009.探空资料中的人为误差对中国温度长期变化趋势的影响.大气科学,33(6):1309-1318.Guo YJ,Li Q X,Ding Y H.2009.The effect of artificial bias on free air temperature trend derived from historical radiosonde data in China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(6):1309-1318(in Chinese)
黄刚.2006.NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40再分析资料以及探空观测资料分析中国北方地区年际气候变化.气候与环境研究,11(3):310-320.Huang G.2006.The assessment and difference of the interdecadal variations of climate change in northern part of China with the NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40reanalysis data.Climatic Environ Res,11(3):310-320(in Chinese)
宋丰飞,周天军.2012.20CR再分析资料在东亚夏季风区的质量评估.大气科学,36(6):1207-1222.Song F F,Zhou T J.2012.Reliability of the 20CR reanalysis data in measuring the East A-sian summer monsoon variability.Chinese J Atmos Sci,36(6):1207-1222(in Chinese)
王丹,盛立芳,石广玉等.2012.中国地表太阳辐射再分析数据与观测的比较.应用气象学报,23(6):729-738.Wang D,Sheng LF,Shi G Y,et al.2012.Comparison of surface solar radiation reanalysis data and observations over China.J Appl Meteor Sci,23(6):729-738(in Chinese)
韦芬芬,汤剑平,王淑瑜.2015.中国区域夏季再分析资料高空变量可信度的检验.地球物理学报,58(2):383-397.Wei F F,Tang J P,Wang S Y.2015.A reliability assessment of upperlevel reanalysis datasets over China.Chinese J Geophys,58(2):383-397(in Chinese)
熊安元,阮新,廖捷等.2015.中国地面和高空气候变化数据产品研发技术.北京:气象出版社,17-34.Xiong A Y,Ruan X,Liao J,et al.2015.Technology for the Development of Ground and High Altitude Climate Change Data Product in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,17-34(in Chinese)
徐影,丁一汇,赵宗慈.2001.美国NCEP/NCAR近50年全球再分析资料在我国气候变化研究中可信度的初步分析.应用气象学报,12(3):337-347.Xu Y,Ding Y H,Zhao Z C.2001.Confidence analysis of NCEP/NCAR 50-year global reanalyzed data in climate change research in China.J Appl Meteor Sci,12(3):337-347(in Chinese)
翟盘茂.1997.中国历史探空资料中的一些过失误差及偏差问题.气象学报,55(5):563-572.Zhai P M.1997.Some gross errors and biases in China's historical radiosonde data.Acta Meteor Sinica,55(5):563-572(in Chinese)
赵天保,符淙斌.2009a.几种再分析地表气温资料在中国区域的适应性评估.高原气象,28(3):594-606.Zhao T B,Fu Z B.2009a.Applicability evaluation of surface air temperature from several reanalysis datasets in China.Plateau Meteor,28(3):594-606(in Chinese)
赵天保,符淙斌.2009b.应用探空观测资料评估几类再分析资料在中国区域的适用性.大气科学,33(3):634-648.Zhao T B,Fu Z B.2009b.Applicability evaluation for several reanalysis datasets using the upper-air observations over China.Chinese J Atmos Sci,33(3):634-648(in Chinese)
支星,徐海明.2013.三种再分析资料的高空温度与中国探空温度资料的季节平均特征对比分析.高原气象,32(1):97-109.Zhi X,Xu H M.2013.Comparative analysis on monthly mean characteristic of free atmospheric temperature between three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde dataset in China.Plateau Meteor,32(1):97-109(in Chinese)
周顺武,张人禾.2009.青藏高原地区上空NCEP/NCAR再分析温度和位势高度资料与观测资料的比较分析.气候与环境研究,14(3):284-292.Zhou S W,Zhang R H.2009.Comparison of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde data about temperature and geopotential height of upper air over the Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Environ Res,14(3):284-292(in Chinese)
Bracegirdle T J,Marshall G J.2012.The reliability of antarctic tropospheric pressure and temperature in the latest global reanalyses.J Climate,25(20):7138-7146
Christy J R,Spencer R W,Norris W B,et al.2003.Error estimates of version 5.0of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures.J Atmos Oceanic Technol,20(5):613-629
Compo G P,Whitaker J S,Sardeshmukh P D,et al.2011.The twentieth century reanalysis project.Quart J Roy MeteorSoc,137(654):1-28
Dee D P,Uppala S M,Simmons A J,et al.2011.The ERA-Interim reanalysis:Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,137(656):553-597
Free M,Seidel D J,Angell J K,et al.2005.Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate(RAT-PAC):A new data set of large-area anomaly time series.J Geophys Res,110(D22):D22101,doi:10.1029/2005JD006169
Gaffen D J,Sargent M A,Habermann R E,et al.2000.Sensitivity of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature trends to radiosonde data quality.J Climate,13(10):1776-1796
Guo Y J,Ding Y H.2009.Long-term free-atmosphere temperature trends in China derived from homogenized in situ radiosonde temperature series.J Climate,22(4):1037-1051
Haimberger L.2007.Homogenization of radiosonde temperature time series using innovation statistics.J Climate,20(7):1377-1403
Haimberger L,Tavolato C,Sperka S.2008.Toward elimination of the warm bias in historic radiosonde temperature records-Some new results from a comprehensive intercomparison of upper-air data.J Climate,21(18):4587-4606
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77(3):437-471
Kanamitsu M,Ebisuzaki W,Woollen J,et al.2002.NCEP/DOEAMI-Ⅱreanalysis(R-2).Bull Amer Meteor Soc,83(11):1631-1643
Kistler R,CollinsW,Saha S,et al.2001.The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,82(2):247-267
Kobayashi S,OtaY,HaradaY,et al.2015.The JRA-55reanalysis:general specifications and basic characteristics.J Meteor Soc Japan,93(1):5-48
Marshall G J.2002.Trends in Antarctic geopotential height and temperature:A comparison between radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data.J Climate,15(6):659-674
Mears C A,Wentz F J.2009.Construction of the RSSV3.2lower tropospheric dataset from the MSU and AMSU microwave sounders.J Atmos Oceanic Technol,26(8):1493-1509
Mears C A,Wentz F J,Thorne P W.2012.Assessing the value of Microwave Sounding Unit-radiosonde comparisons in ascertaining errors in climate data records of tropospheric temperatures.J Geophys Res,117(D19):D19103,doi:10.1029/2012JD017710
Onogi K,Tsutsui J,Koide H,et al.2007.The JRA-25reanalysis.J Meteor Soc Japan,85(3):369-432
Rienecker M M,Suarez M J,Gelaro R,et al.2011.MERRA:NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications.J Climate,24(14):3624-3648
SahaS,Moorthi S,Pan H L,et al.2010.The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,91(8):1015-1057
Seidel D J,Angell J K,Christy J,et al.2004.Uncertainty in signals of large-scale climate variations in radiosonde and satellite upper-air temperature datasets.J Climate,17(11):2225-2240
Sherwood S C,Meyer C L,Allen R J,et al.2008.Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data.J Climate,21(20):5336-5352
Thorne P W,Parker D E,Tett S F B,et al.2005.Revisiting radiosonde upper air temperatures from 1958to 2002.J Geophys Res,110(D18):D18105,doi:10.1029/2004JD005753
Uppala S M,KA·llberg P W,Simmons A J,et al.2005.The ERA-40reanalysis.Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,131(612):2961-3012
Uppala S M,Dee D,Kobayashi S,et al.2008.Towards a climate data assimilation system:Status update of ERA-Interim.ECM-WF Newslett,115:12-18
Wang X L,Wen Q H,Wu Y H.2007.Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series.JAppl Meteor Climatol,46(6):916-931
Zhai P M,Eskridge R E.1996.Analyses of inhomogeneities in radiosonde temperature and humidity time series.J Climate,9(4):884-896
Zhang L X,Zhou T J.2013.A comparison of tropospheric temperature changes over China revealed by multiple data sets.J Geophys Res,118(10):4217-4230,doi:10.1002/jgrd.50370
Zou C Z,Wang W H.2011.Inter satellite calibration of AMSU-Aobservations for weather and climate applications.J Geophys Res,116(D23):D23113,doi:10.1029/2011JD016205