2018年12月21日虹桥机场平流雾天气漏报原因研究
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摘要
2018年12月21日,虹桥机场出现了平流雾天气,虽然此次平流雾未造成航班延误或取消,但由于没有提前预警,服务效果较差。本文对此次平流雾天气的预报思路和服务过程进行了反思,为提高平流雾预报能力,及时准确发布预警积累经验。预战术阶段,客观预报均未预报出此次过程,天气形势预报与实况也有较大差异,导致预报员对21日晨天空云系变化及平流雾发生未能做出正确判断。战术阶段,预警与实况较一致,影响结束时间的预报误差仅为14min。分析发现,基于目前的业务技术水平,雾的准确预报仍十分困难,预报着眼点和预报流程存在不确定和不稳定的问题,服务产品与空中交通管制运行过程的融合深度仍需提升针对性。因此,加强科技攻关和推进空管气象联合复盘分析是缓解预报能力与业务需求之间矛盾的有效途径,通过技术创新和业务探索,改进服务方式,实现精准、定向、多元的航空气象信息发布。
On December 21, 2018, advection fog weather appeared at Hongqiao Airport. Although the advection fog did not cause flight delays or cancellations, the service effect was poor due to the lack of early warning. In this paper,the forecasting idea and service process of advection fog weather were rethoughted, and experience was accumulated to improve the forecasting ability of advection fog and timely and accurate issuance of early warning. In the pre-tactical stage, the objective forecast did not predict the process, and the weather situation forecast was quite different from the actual situation, which led the forecasters to fail to make a correct judgment on the changes of cloud system and advection fog in the morning of 21. In tactical stage, the early warning was consistent with the actual situation, and the prediction error of the end time is only 14 minutes. It was found that, based on the current operational level, accurate fog prediction was still very difficult, the forecasting focus and forecasting process were uncertain and unstable,and the integration depth of service products and air traffic control operation process still needed to be improved.Therefore, it is an effective way to alleviate the contradiction between forecasting ability and operational demand by strengthening scientific and technological research and promoting the combined analysis of air traffic control and meteorology. Through technological innovation and operational exploration, service mode can be improved to achieve accurate, directional and pluralistic air traffic meteorological information release.
On December 21, 2018, advection fog weather appeared at Hongqiao Airport. Although the advection fog did not cause flight delays or cancellations, the service effect was poor due to the lack of early warning. In this paper,the forecasting idea and service process of advection fog weather were rethoughted, and experience was accumulated to improve the forecasting ability of advection fog and timely and accurate issuance of early warning. In the pre-tactical stage, the objective forecast did not predict the process, and the weather situation forecast was quite different from the actual situation, which led the forecasters to fail to make a correct judgment on the changes of cloud system and advection fog in the morning of 21. In tactical stage, the early warning was consistent with the actual situation, and the prediction error of the end time is only 14 minutes. It was found that, based on the current operational level, accurate fog prediction was still very difficult, the forecasting focus and forecasting process were uncertain and unstable,and the integration depth of service products and air traffic control operation process still needed to be improved.Therefore, it is an effective way to alleviate the contradiction between forecasting ability and operational demand by strengthening scientific and technological research and promoting the combined analysis of air traffic control and meteorology. Through technological innovation and operational exploration, service mode can be improved to achieve accurate, directional and pluralistic air traffic meteorological information release.
引文
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[5]来小芳,陈志豪.上海浦东机场一次平流雾数值模拟分析[C]//第七届长三角气象科技论坛论文集.浙江省气象学会,2011.
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[7]杜钧,周斌斌.雾的集合预报与集合预报的检验[J].气象科技进展,2016(3):41-47.
[8]孙涛,袁娴,胡伯彦,李新峰.气象预报不确定性问题的最优解探讨:三方协同决策和复盘分析机制优化民航运行方案的探索与应用[J].中国民用航空,2018(9):47-50.
[9]穆穆,段晚锁,唐佑民.大气-海洋运动的可预报性:思考与展望[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017(10):1166-1178.
[2]肖安,许爱华,陈翔翔.江南区域性平流雾的物理量统计特征[J].暴雨灾害,2017(2):147-155.
[3]沈俊.上海虹桥和浦东机场雾的分类特征统计分析[J].空中交通,2013(6):56-61.
[4]胡伯彦,冯雷,陈志豪.1996—2013年上海虹桥机场低能见度及低跑道视程特征分析[J].气象科技,2015(1):151-155.
[5]来小芳,陈志豪.上海浦东机场一次平流雾数值模拟分析[C]//第七届长三角气象科技论坛论文集.浙江省气象学会,2011.
[6]冯蕾,田华.国内外雾预报技术研究进展[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2014(1):74-81.
[7]杜钧,周斌斌.雾的集合预报与集合预报的检验[J].气象科技进展,2016(3):41-47.
[8]孙涛,袁娴,胡伯彦,李新峰.气象预报不确定性问题的最优解探讨:三方协同决策和复盘分析机制优化民航运行方案的探索与应用[J].中国民用航空,2018(9):47-50.
[9]穆穆,段晚锁,唐佑民.大气-海洋运动的可预报性:思考与展望[J].中国科学:地球科学,2017(10):1166-1178.