雷达资料同化对2016年6月23日阜宁龙卷模拟的改进
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摘要
基于GSI(Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)同化系统和WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式,探讨了多部多普勒雷达的反射率因子和径向速度资料同化对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷模拟的改进效果和影响过程。结果表明:(1)仅同化雷达反射率因子和仅同化径向速度均能在一定程度上改进模式对阜宁龙卷及其环境场的模拟,且雷达径向速度同化的改进作用更大;同时同化两种资料改进效果最佳。(2)雷达反射率因子同化是利用复杂云分析技术,直接修正了水凝物含量,增加了潜热释放,对低层大气热力场进行了正温度扰动调整,从而主要改进了初始场的水汽条件和热力条件;而雷达径向速度同化通过三维变分技术直接修正了风场,进而引起水汽输送变化影响水凝物的调整和大气热力场的变化,对初始场的动力条件和热力条件修正较大;同时同化两种资料修正了初始场的动力和热力结构,保证了两者物理上的协调,综合了两者的改进作用,从而取得最佳模拟效果。(3)同时同化雷达反射率因子和径向速度后,模式在阜宁附近模拟出了明显的涡旋结构,尽管涡旋强度和龙卷结构与实况仍有一定差距,但涡旋发生发展过程、路径、地面小时极大风和降水等模拟与实况吻合度均明显高于对照试验。
The reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars were assimilated by the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI) system, and a tornado occurred in Funing on 23 June 2016 was then simulated and studied by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The main results are as follows.(1) The simulations can be improved to some extent by assimilating either radar reflectivity or radial velocity. The experiment with both the radar reflectivity and radial velocity assimilated show the best result, and the radial velocity plays a more important role than the reflectivity.(2) Assimilation of radar reflectivity by using complex cloud analysis system can efficiently adjust the initial hydrometeors and thermal fields, which makes an important contribution to the adjustment of water vapor and thermal conditions. Assimilation of radar radial velocity via the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system directly affects the wind field and subsequently affects the water vapor transport, hydrometeors and instability, which makes an important contribution to the adjustment of dynamic and thermal conditions. Assimilation of both the radar reflectivity and the radial velocity can combine their advantages to obtain a best balance among dynamic, water vapor and thermal conditions.(3) With assimilation of both the radar reflectivity and the radial velocity, the storm with the vortex structure of tornado near Funing can be simulated by the model. The simulated storm occurrence, development, track, surface hourly maximum wind speed and precipitation agree well with observations, although certain gaps still exist between the simulation and observations with respect to the strength and structure of the vortex.
The reflectivity and radial velocity data from multiple Doppler radars were assimilated by the Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI) system, and a tornado occurred in Funing on 23 June 2016 was then simulated and studied by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The main results are as follows.(1) The simulations can be improved to some extent by assimilating either radar reflectivity or radial velocity. The experiment with both the radar reflectivity and radial velocity assimilated show the best result, and the radial velocity plays a more important role than the reflectivity.(2) Assimilation of radar reflectivity by using complex cloud analysis system can efficiently adjust the initial hydrometeors and thermal fields, which makes an important contribution to the adjustment of water vapor and thermal conditions. Assimilation of radar radial velocity via the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system directly affects the wind field and subsequently affects the water vapor transport, hydrometeors and instability, which makes an important contribution to the adjustment of dynamic and thermal conditions. Assimilation of both the radar reflectivity and the radial velocity can combine their advantages to obtain a best balance among dynamic, water vapor and thermal conditions.(3) With assimilation of both the radar reflectivity and the radial velocity, the storm with the vortex structure of tornado near Funing can be simulated by the model. The simulated storm occurrence, development, track, surface hourly maximum wind speed and precipitation agree well with observations, although certain gaps still exist between the simulation and observations with respect to the strength and structure of the vortex.
引文
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